Perhaps the simplest and most unequivocal situation concerns the South Korean launch. On Wednesday May 17, representatives of the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) announced that they had fully completed the assembly of the three-stage Nuri launch vehicle. According to plans, on May 24 at 6:24 p.m. from the South Korean cosmodrome “Naro” in the far south of the country, “Nuri” will orbit a total of eight satellites with a total weight of one and a half tons at once . If weather conditions or other circumstances interfere, a “window” is reserved in reserve until May 31.
This will be the third launch of the Nuri launcher. In October 2021 there was a first attempt, but it was partially successful. On June 21, 2022, the second departure took place, which has already passed without problems. “Nuri” reached the required height and was able to put into orbit a model that completely reproduced the characteristics of real satellites. Now, on May 24, the first real commercial launch will take place, where there will be real satellites – one NEXTSat-2 and seven small systems.
Pyongyang is unlikely to look into Seoul’s plans to launch a satellite, but it seems that around the same time North Korea could also try to put its satellite into orbit.
Yesterday, DPRK media released a document with photographs of how DPRK leader Kim Jong-un inspected preparations for the launch of the first military reconnaissance satellite. It is reported that the head of state familiarized himself in detail with the work of the Non-Standing Committee on the preparation of the launch of the satellite, examined and studied the general condition of the device and authorized a “plan of ‘future actions’. It was noted that the satellite has already passed a series of final tests and is ready for installation on a launch vehicle. Kim Jong-un, in a conversation with engineers, stressed that the successful launch of a satellite in the current situation is an “urgent requirement”, a process of “primary defense capability building”. During the inspection, Kim was also accompanied by his 10-year-old daughter, Kim Joo Ae, who has repeatedly appeared accompanied by her father at various events, including intercontinental ballistic missile launches.
It should be noted that the country’s plans to launch a military satellite into space were previously announced by Kim Jong-un’s younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, who predicted the launch in April this year. Judging by the situation, for some reason the launch had to be postponed. However, foreign experts, especially after Kim Jong-un’s public visit to the launch preparation committee, are confident that Pyongyang will try to remove the satellite anyway.
There are different views regarding the possible date, but Seoul believes the DPRK will do so later than Nuri’s scheduled May 24 launch. According to South Korean estimates, although the assembly of the North Korean satellite has been completed, it will still take three to four weeks to check and test the equipment. It should be noted that the weight of the North Korean spy satellite, which was shown in photographs of the DPRK media, but in a “blurred” form to hide details, is between 300 and 500 kg. Southerners believe that the optical capabilities of DPRK equipment are very weak. The launcher will likely be a three-stage liquid-fuel rocket, where the thrust of the first stage will be 160, the second 40 and the third three tons.
It should also be noted that recently at the North Korean Sohe Cosmodrome in the city of Dongchangni, North Pyongan Province, infrastructure improvement works have been constantly recorded. Most likely, an additional launch pad is under construction. It is possible that it will be used for subsequent DPRK satellite launches.
Regarding the launch date, the most likely period is around July 27th. This year, the DPRK celebrates the 70th anniversary of “Victory Day in the 1950-1953 Korean War”. (the war ended with a truce, which ensured the division of the peninsula into North and South), and therefore it is possible that this event was marked by the launch of a military satellite. On the eve of the launch, North Korea should notify international organizations of its launch plans in accordance with the rules and procedures adopted around the world.
It is worth recalling that the DPRK has already launched satellites into orbit at least twice – this happened in 2012 and 2016. However, it is believed that then “blanks” were thrown into orbit – spinning mannequins still in near-Earth orbit, but not carrying any payload. The surveillance systems of the United States and South Korea do not record any “communication” between the mission control center in the DPRK and these objects.
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p class=””>Although the two Koreas will launch a satellite into orbit and the right to peaceful exploration of outer space is considered universally recognized, the United States does not like Pyongyang’s intentions, because the sanctions of the UN prohibits the DPRK from such actions. On May 17, the US State Department’s first deputy press secretary, Vedant Patel, said the DPRK launch would be seen as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions barring Pyongyang from launching. using ballistic technologies. The US official also pointed out that the United States has many means to hold the DPRK accountable and that Washington would use them to punish Pyongyang in the event of a launch.
True, as foreign experts note, this is just rhetoric. There is a split in the UN Security Council between its permanent members, over which all attempts to impose new sanctions against North Korea through this international organization are blocked. All other methods of pressure on the DPRK by the United States and its allies have been used for a long time, and it is extremely difficult to reinforce anything or come up with a new one. Pyongyang itself is unlikely to heed US warnings, given that the DPRK regularly launches combat missiles, including intercontinental ones.
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