The United States is considering the possibility that the conflict in Ukraine will be frozen for decades under the “Korean scenario”. On this subject writing Politico citing multiple sources.
According to the publication, President Joe Biden’s administration is discussing the option of drawing a dividing line, which Russia and Ukraine will agree not to cross. At the same time, such a line should not be recognized as an official state border.
A former Biden administration official said a “Korean-style” end to the conflict was being discussed in Washington.
“It is plausible, because neither side would need to recognize new borders, and the only thing that would have to be agreed on is to stop firing along the established line,” he said. he explains.
Politico writes that the likelihood of such an option to resolve the conflict is growing, as the opinion within the Biden administration is growing that the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive will not deal a “mortal blow” to the Russian side.
If the conflict freezes, hostilities are suspended, but neither side considers it officially over and “is not declared the winner”. According to Politico, this option may also be acceptable for the United States and countries supporting Ukraine, since in this case the number of clashes and the cost of aid to Kyiv would be reduced.
A US official familiar with White House talks says the Biden administration is increasingly focused on long-term planning, while in recent months ‘everything has been focused on the emergency and the short term’ .
Two other officials and a former Biden administration official have confirmed that a prolonged freeze on hostilities is a possibility the United States is preparing for.
Politico sources point out that these discussions are still in their early stages. According to them, the hot phase of the conflict will last long enough, and Washington intends to supply arms to Kyiv to help it regain control of as large a territory as possible.
However, according to Politico, the mere assumption of such plans to freeze the conflict is enough to undermine the confidence of the Ukrainian authorities in the stability of American support.
In February, Oleksiy Arestovich, a former adviser to the Ukrainian president’s office, said the “Korean script” would bring many bonuses to Ukrainians.”
“Here, relatively speaking, it’s a two-Korea scenario. What should the West do? We must make South Korea in the part that remains. So, we are talking about (security) guarantees,” he said.
According to Arestovich, to return to the 1991 borders, Ukraine needs an army of 400,000 soldiers “fully trained, well trained, armed from head to toe with NATO weapons”. “Do we have it?” No. Will it be next year? It won’t,” he said.
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