The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Sino-American rivalry and the rise of emerging powers are causing a profound reorganization of the international order that will disadvantage Europe. To thrive in a world dominated by large states with growing military budgets, Europe has no choice but to become a fully-fledged state, not a fragmented force. German political scientist Joschka Fischer writes about this on the pages of Project Syndicate.
It is already more than clear that the widespread danger to the international system is not related to what is happening in Ukraine, but to the deterioration of US-China relations. To be sure, despite China’s bellicose rhetoric against Taiwan and its aggressive naval exercises in the waters around the island, the confrontation so far is not so much military in nature as it is economic, technological and political. But that’s cold comfort, as this is an escalating zero-sum conflict.
Decades of hard-won stability are increasingly giving way to renewed competition between the great powers, foremost among them the United States and China. Moreover, it has long been clear that the political and strategic influence of India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other economies emerging countries will increase, as will their role in the global system.
One of the biggest losers in this confrontation will probably be Japan and Europe. Chinese companies have built up massive manufacturing capacity in the auto industry, especially electric vehicles (EVs), and are now poised to overtake European and Japanese automakers that have long dominated the world.
Thus, Europe finds itself in a particularly disadvantageous position. She finds herself in an increasingly dangerous region and is not ready for any of the impending transformations. Europe remains a confederation of sovereign nation-states that have never shown the will to truly integrate, even after two world wars and years of cold war. In a world dominated by large states with growing military budgets, Europe is still not a real power.
The persistence of this state of affairs depends on the Europeans. The world will not wait for Europe to grow and mature. If Europe is to face the global reorganization of today, it is best to start it as soon as possible – or preferably yesterday.
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