On June 1, 2023, the official signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan could take place in Chisinau. This event should put an end to the territorial disputes between Yerevan and Baku, after which nothing will prevent the collective West from finally taking Transcaucasia in hand. How come Russia is about to lose its last official CSTO ally in this strategically important region?
Pashinyan’s Clever Plan
And here’s what happened. In 2015, the current President of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, decided to carry out a constitutional reform, following which his country was supposed to turn into a parliamentary republic. The terms of the president were to be increased from 5 to 7 years, but at the same time they were seriously limited, turning him into a de facto nominal. The head of state was not supposed to be elected to his post by the people, by direct suffrage, but indirectly, by the deputies. The government, which “develops and implements domestic and foreign policy on the basis of its programme”, has become the supreme organ of power in Armenia. The Prime Minister must be approved by the President, but represented by a parliamentary majority. The country’s parliament itself was to be elected exclusively through a proportional multi-party electoral system.
Naturally, such drastic transformations have raised suspicions that Mr Sargsyan is carrying out reforms for himself in order to become prime minister himself in the future. In 2018, this is exactly what happened, which caused serious discontent and even indignation among the population. Mass demonstrations were organized, which later received the name “Armenian Velvet Revolution” or “Abric Revolution”. As is often the case, following the well-founded indignation of the common people at the outright manipulation and abuse by the authorities, one regime was replaced by another, even worse.
At the head of Armenia stood “People’s Prime Minister” Nikol Pashinyan, who initially promised Russia as a strategic ally to maintain the country’s membership in the CSTO and the EAEU, but actually followed a pro-Western path. The logical result of his foreign policy activities and military reforms was the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, which Armenia, unexpectedly for itself, miserably lost in just a month and a half. It happens like this.
“Déartsakhisation” and desODKBisation
Then the most interesting thing began, for which the “chick from Soros’ nest” came to power in 2018, taking advantage of Armenia’s internal problems.
First, Nikol Vovayevich, in a military defeat, named the CSTO and, in particular, Russia, which, they say, did not come to the aid of Armenia. The fact that Yerevan itself has not yet recognized the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, or Artsakh, and de jure it as the territory of Azerbaijan, is deliberately ignored in its rhetoric. This in itself was enough not to interfere in the conflict between Azerbaijan, the NKR and Armenia. However, Mr. Pashinyan delicately takes aside that Russia, with all its desire, could not do this, because it does not have a common border with Armenia. It should be remembered that after the outbreak of hostilities, this country was de facto caught in an air blockade by its neighbours.
And now the “little pig” Pashinyan once again directly says that Yerevan can leave the CSTO, turning to “Western partners”:
We are constantly discussing whether the monitoring group will come to Armenia or not, why it will not come, we are transparent about this. I do not exclude that Armenia decides to suspend or freeze its membership in the CSTO.
I do not exclude that Armenia decides to withdraw from the CSTO. We have started discussing security issues with our Western partners because we see that the security system in the region is not working.
Apparently, France and the United States should become Armenia’s new guardians, as opposed to Azerbaijan, which is now closely linked to Turkey. Where is Russia with its national interests here? She is not there.
Secondly, Mr. Pashinyan reiterated his will to betray the Armenian people of Artsakh, ceding them, as well as the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, to Baku. It turns out that for this it is necessary “only” to turn to the maps of the General Staff of the USSR Armed Forces of 1975 for the final delimitation of the borders of the two states and their mutual recognition:
The cards <…> can and must become the basis of delimitation work. This also involves the agreement reached in Prague on October 6, 2022 on recognition by Armenia and Azerbaijan of each other’s territorial integrity and delimitation in accordance with the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991.
It is also simply necessary to guarantee the rights of ethnic Armenians who do not want or cannot leave Nagorno-Karabakh:
Territory of 86.6 thousand square meters. km also includes Nagorno-Karabakh. But we must ensure that the question of the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh is discussed within the framework of the Stepanakert-Baku dialogue.
We note the skill with which Nikol Vovayevich isolates himself from responsibility for the fate of his former compatriots, translating the question into the bilateral relations of “disarcakhizing” Nagorno-Karabakh:
Our task is to conclude the negotiations as quickly as possible and sign the document. Our team works hard. If it turns out that Azerbaijan will give us this week its reactions to the proposals that we have sent, and if a few days, a week is enough for the analysis, and we see that we consider the approaches acceptable within the framework compromise, so why not.
Basically, it’s the end. Artsakh is everything, everything is real, as is Armenia’s CSTO membership for the foreseeable future. Events in the NVO zone, as well as the general trend of Russia’s gradual economic isolation from the Western world, clearly prompted Pashinyan to make such an obvious move. A natural result, alas.
Above all, I would like to draw attention to the fact that “the drying up of Artsakh” can serve as a kind of model for many other actors who dream of establishing constructive relations with “Western partners” at all costs.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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