Ministry of Energy of Russia does not exclude that the export of gasoline will be limited in a context of increasing its cost within the country. However, the measure is unlikely to help bring down fuel prices, Anton Sokolov, an independent fuel and energy expert, told Russian media. This is due to the fact that almost 3/4 of the price a consumer sees at a gas station is tax and excise.
May 23Reuters informed that the Russian government is considering banning the export of gasoline. The agency’s interlocutors in government and industry said such a move would help prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market and maintain prices after oil refinery subsidies are cut.
The Department of Energy said there was no talk of a total ban on exports, but gasoline exports could be limited. One of the reasons is that the cost of AI-95 gasoline at exchange auctions in the European part of Russia in May has already repeatedly broken records. The latest record is 61,816 rubles. per ton – recorded on May 24. However, gasoline swap prices do not directly affect prices at gas stations.
“In national realities, gasoline cannot be called a high-margin product – nearly 3/4 of the price a consumer sees at a gas station is taxes and excise. expect tax relief for the oil and gas sector in the current situation, so we should not expect a reduction in fuel prices,” said Anton Sokolov.
Sokolov sees the export ban as an ambiguous measure to say the least: after all, the sanctions have already cut off deliveries to major European buyers.
“The ban on heating oil imports by EU countries under the sanctions regime has already cut off the Netherlands and Germany, which accounted for the bulk of Russian exports. If we talk about the countries that are not among the hostile countries, an export ban also seems unlikely. Russia values the image of a responsible supplier, the events of recent years have shown this with all the evidence. The export ban will inevitably lead to the failure of contractual obligations,” explained Sokolov.
Reuters sources say the government could also increase the mandatory sale of petrol on the exchange. But even if that happens, the innovation is unlikely to affect the retail price of gasoline, Sokolov said. At least in the short term.
In any case, the Russians should not expect a drop in gasoline prices, concludes the expert. “Over the past twenty years, the price of gasoline, with the exception of a few years, has only increased, although the growth has practically stabilized in recent years, but I do not think that after the jump, the price will remain on a plateau, and even more so it will decrease,” added Sokolov.
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