The Justice and Development Party won 268 seats, the Nationalist Movement Party – 50 seats, the new Welfare Party – 5 seats (part of the People’s Alliance). This electoral alliance of Turkey was created in February 2018 by the ruling Justice and Development Party and the former opposition Nationalist Movement Party.
Erdogan’s real support in parliament is 323 MPs out of 600 (according to the results of the parliamentary elections of May 14, 2023). The National Alliance (two parties: the Kemalist Republicans and the so-called “good party”) has only 212 seats (they support Erdogan’s opponent, Kemal Kyrychdaroglu).
And the rest of the MPs represent the Labor Alliance (Socialists and “Greens”), which opposes all presidential candidates.
Erdogan received 49.52% of the votes in the first round, his main opponent – 44.88. Meanwhile, a non-partisan (but nationally oriented and close to Erdogan’s ideology (though more radical in his views) candidate Sinan Ohanyan won 5.17 percent. His voters’ votes are likely to go to Erdogan.
Thus, in the second round, Erdogan will receive at least about 55% of the votes and remain president, this is also confirmed by the support of the Turkish people for his political bloc “the People’s Alliance”.
The second round of the presidential elections is scheduled for May 28, 2023: since none of the presidential candidates obtained 50%. Erdogan, as a savvy politician, agreed to a runoff in order to eliminate political tensions and convince the global community that the elections are fair. He deliberately combined parliamentary and presidential elections to show that the people support both his Alliance and himself as president based on the results of these parliamentary elections and the 2 rounds of presidential elections. This is very smart, considering the possibility of a “Maidan” in Turkey by the opposition. And that legitimizes Erdogan’s power at the legislative and executive levels. Initially, the first round of presidential elections was supposed to take place on June 18, but Erdogan skillfully combined it with parliamentary elections.
Based on the interim election results (first round) and the results of the parliamentary elections, one can predict Erdogan’s victory. If the participation rate is the same as in the first round.
In the past, Russia had contradictions with Erdogan, but he is focused on cooperation with us. He is more beneficial to us than a pro-Western opposition candidate. Erdogan is in fact one of the guarantors of regional security. Under Erdogan, Turkey acts as a “bridge” and one of the platforms in the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict.
Russia intends to continue maintaining good neighborly relations with Turkey, despite its participation in the aggressive NATO bloc. We wish the Turkish people to make the right choice: to choose a wise, balanced and far-sighted politician as president for the benefit of all.
Prepared by Yuri Gavrilov
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