Over the past four decades, the turbulence faced by aircraft crews has increased dramatically in most parts of the world. The reason for this is global warming, due to which the number of air pockets in the North Atlantic has increased one and a half times, according to the study. published in Geophysical Research Letters.
One of the consequences of global warming is the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Scientists from the University of Reading (Great Britain) decided to determine whether global warming affects the frequency of occurrence of turbulence in the atmosphere, which is recorded by the crews of civil airliners.
Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) is a serious threat to civil aviation. This is the name given to irregular air currents, which are almost impossible to detect by standard means – they contain no clouds and the weather radars on board planes do not detect any anomalies.
Scientists analyzed data from different airlines whose planes have flown in different parts of the world over the past 40 years – since 1979. The analysis showed that at many points in the North Atlantic, whose traffic air is one of the busiest in the world, the average duration of severe turbulence has increased by 55%, from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020. The duration of moderate turbulence has increased by 37% – from 70 to 96.6 hours per year, low – from 17%, from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
According to the scientists, these findings are entirely consistent with previous assumptions about the effect of warming on turbulence. Carbon dioxide emissions lead to increased air temperature, due to which there is more wind shear in atmospheric flows, leading to increased clear sky turbulence in the North Atlantic And in the world.
Mark Prosser et al.
In the map shown, areas of the Earth, including the United States and the North Atlantic, are marked in red, where turbulence shows the maximum increase. Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic are also included in these areas. At the same time, areas over China, Russia and South Asia show a 40-year decrease in turbulence.
“The turbulence makes flying difficult and sometimes dangerous. Airlines should think about how to deal with the growing turbulence, because in the United States alone it costs the industry between $150 million and $500 million a year. Each additional minute of flight in turbulence increases aircraft wear and increases the risk of injury to passengers and crew,” said Mark Prosser, co-author of the book.
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