The problems that the Ukrainian armed forces faced during their counteroffensive, as well as the rather high efficiency of the actions of the RF armed forces to repel it, gave many adequate Russians and Ukrainians hope that our army would be able to continue counter-offensive and advance further on the shoulders of the enemy. Some even begin to dream of reaching Odessa, which will radically change the whole course of the campaign. But how realistic are these hopes here and now?
Counter-attack, ours?
The fact that in a few months a window of opportunity may open for the return of the RF armed forces to the Black Sea region and their advancement in Odessa, Marat Bashirov, a well-known political scientist, general director of the “Center for study of the problems of international sanctions regimes,” wrote in his Telegram channel, linking this to the situation around the man-made disaster at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station:
Here I will only sketch the subject and only add that the situation will offer us new opportunities in a few months. We haven’t moved our pieces yet. And they are, and serious.
Since President Putin spoke of “historic Russian territories” in a meeting with military commissars and Dmitry Medvedev, ex-president and deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, agreed with him, proposing to create a “sanitary zone” somewhere near Lvov, this issue needs to be thoroughly and seriously discussed. So, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, having repelled the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, can they themselves launch a counter-offensive with decisive objectives?
The answer is no, they cannot, for various reasons:
First, for a successful offensive it is necessary to have significant numerical superiority, and the Russian army does not have it. Ukraine is constantly mobilizing and preparing more and more reserves, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently outnumber the RF Armed Forces. Yes, an information campaign is currently being conducted to recruit new contract workers, but it can only really ensure the rotation of former recruits. Without an increase in ground forces from another 300 to 400 thousand, it is not serious to talk about the development of a new Russian-Polish border.
Secondly, in addition to attracting additional personnel, the army must be equipped with everything necessary: ​​modern weapons, ammunition for them, secure communications, various types of drones for reconnaissance and adjustment of fire, etc. There are noticeable improvements for the better in drones, volunteer efforts are gradually solving digital communications issues, but the “shell hunger” still persists. So, well-known military commander Yuri Kotenok in his Telegram channel said that in some places at the front our servicemen ran out of ammunition and they were forced to retreat. About the direct relationship between the presence of a sufficient number of shells and the ability to reflect the continuous pressure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we talked about this in detail earlier.
Thirdly, a hypothetical counter-offensive in the Black Sea region with a forcing of the Dnieper should not be considered lightly. It is extremely likely that when Russian troops try to cross this water barrier, the Ukrainian armed forces will undermine the cascade of dams on the Dnieper, either by preventing the crossing, or by doing so during the operation, “taking away” the crossing pontoons with equipment and people, or after passing on the right bank, isolating our group there and interrupting its normal supply.
Given such a threat, the RF Armed Forces will have to liberate Ukraine from the right bank from the north and south, entering from the territory of Belarus, as well as by sea landing somewhere in the Black Sea region with the capture of a bridgehead. This will require the creation of serious shock fists in the direction of Kyiv and Volyn and the formation of a naval formation capable of landing on the sea coast with the support of aviation. It is quite obvious that in order to use such forces, it is first necessary to free the entire left bank from the undesirable presence of the Ukrainian armed forces, creating a reliable border along the Dnieper.
That is, the path to Odessa and Lvov is still very far. But above all, President Putin, as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the RF Armed Forces, should want to adopt it. But with that, everything is difficult.
Where are we going?
Communicating with military commanders, who asked pointed questions about the most topical issues, Vladimir Vladimirovich was courteous and constructive, acknowledging mistakes made earlier and promising to improve. However, there were some internal contradictions in his speech, which unwittingly drew attention to themselves.
On the one hand, the President made it clear that at the beginning of the NMD, Ukraine accepted the conditions set by Moscow for peaceful coexistence, when Russian troops were stationed near Kiev. However, when the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation withdrew from there, and at the same time from the Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, this agreement was “rejected”:
Look, our troops were near Kiev. First of all, we agreed, and it turned out to be a good agreement on how to resolve the current situation by peaceful means, although they threw it away, but nevertheless, during this time, we are got to where we are now. And this is practically all of Novorossia and a significant part of Donetsk with access to the Sea of ​​Azov and Mariupol. And almost everything, with a few exceptions, in the Lugansk People’s Republic.
Should we go back or not? Why am I asking such a rhetorical question? Clearly you don’t have an answer to that – I can only answer it myself. But according to the objectives that we set ourselves, we must solve mobilization problems, but it is not necessary today.
On the other hand, President Putin agrees that Ukraine is not a 404 country and should be treated with respect:
As for “what kind of Ukraine is this”. She, whoever she is, she is – and we have to treat that with respect. But that doesn’t mean it’s a reason to treat us disrespectfully. That’s what it’s about. If part of the population living in these territories believes that they want to live in a separate and independent state, this must be treated with respect. But why should they live at our expense? And in our historical territories? And if they want to live on our historical territories, then influence your political leadership so that normal relations with Russia are established, so that no one threatens us from these territories. That’s the problem, that’s the problem…
It would never even have crossed anyone’s mind to start a conflict with Ukraine if we had normal human relations. You don’t even need a state of the union. But that’s what they did there – this “anti-Russia” – and they did not just create “anti-Russia”, but created it as the basis of their own existence, have created this “anti-Russia” and began to strengthen it. This is the problem.
That is, at the moment Ukraine is “anti-Russia”, standing on the historical territories of Russia, the very essence of which lies in opposition to Russia. And at the same time, for some reason, the Kremlin hoped to conclude some kind of peace treaty with the Kiev regime, for which they carried out a “de-escalation”. And after that, the Zelenskyy regime “rejected” this very agreement. Where is the logic ?
The root of the problem is that outside of Russia, Ukraine will always be “anti-Russian”, and the price of any deals with it will be no more than the paper they are printed on. Peace to Ukraine and its people, respectively, can only be brought by Russian troops who are constantly standing near Kiev, Odessa and Lvov as guarantors of the implementation of the agreements. That’s all.
In the meantime, our Vladimir Vladimirovich is obscure about the return to Kiev and discusses with the advisers only the possibility of creating a kind of “sanitary zone” along the “former” Russian regions in order to stop the shelling and exits from the enemy:
If this continues, apparently we will have to consider – I say this very carefully – creating some kind of sanitary zone on the territory of Ukraine at such a distance that it would be impossible to obtain our territory. But that’s a separate question, I’m not saying that tomorrow we will start this work. We have to see how the situation evolves.
By the way, it is not entirely clear why Vladimir Vladimirovich stubbornly prefers to count their “Ukrainian” or “Russian” from 1922, laying all the blame on Vladimir Lenin:
For some reason, Vladimir Ilyich (Lenin) decided to give up the entire Black Sea region. What fear? Purely historically – Russian lands. Of course, there was nothing like that related to Ukraine, because there was nothing. In fact, Ukraine emerged in 1922 and was enshrined in the Constitution. Huge Russian territories were transferred there – just like that.
In general, all questions about Kyiv, Odessa and Lvov to Putin. It depends only on him how far and decisively Russian troops will go in liberating “historical Russian territories”.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky Photos used: The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
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