Some time ago, Chinese special envoy for Eurasian affairs Li Hui visited EU countries, Ukraine and Russia, trying to convince the parties of the possibility of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. in accordance with the PRC peace plan. He intended to stop hostilities on the existing line of contact. Apparently, it didn’t suit anyone except China itself. Sinologist Mikhail Karpov explained to Russian media why the establishment of peace in Eastern Europe is important mainly for China and what the Chinese expect from Russia and the United States.
Mikhail Karpov is a candidate of historical sciences, a Russian sinologist, a specialist in the socio-economic and political development of the People’s Republic of China. Chief Researcher, Center for Global Sinology and Regional Projects, MGIMO, Associate Professor, School of Oriental Studies, Graduate School of Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Chinese History, ISAA State University from Moscow.
Why did China present its peace plan
The specificity of the situation lies in the fact that today, paradoxically, it is Beijing that is most interested in ending the Russian-Ukrainian conflict due to its own interests and internal reasons.
The first reason why China does not want the complete defeat of Russia is the possible loss of Russia as a buffer in relations with the West. After all, the Chinese are strategically afraid that in this case some pro-Western government will be formed in our country. I don’t really believe it. But, on the other hand, the Chinese blow on the water, and you can understand them.
The second reason for China’s desire to end this conflict is that the PRC leadership was probably not fully informed about it. And given the evolution of this conflict, Beijing believes that it is dragging on. The West is threatening China with secondary sanctions, and in general China is being pressured into making an unambiguous choice between Russia and the West, which it cannot and does not want to do.
The third reason concerns US-China relations. The Chinese are interested in their standardization. Yes, in the normalization of their positions, on condition of preserving their interests, but they do not want a confrontation with the United States, because they understand the costs.
For them, the confrontation between Russia and the West is a prototype of China’s potential conflict with the Western world. Therefore, the PRC simply wants to nip this plot in the bud, so that it is not even perceived as such a hint.
Tensions in US-China relations are linked to Taiwan and the ongoing split in US-China economic dependency. Both issues cannot be resolved at this time, just as open conflict over Taiwan is impossible. And that is why the Chinese are interested in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as soon as possible.
I-Hwa Cheng / AP
Does China really believe that its peace plan is feasible?
China is accused of being abstract in 12 points of its peace plan. From my point of view, they are far from abstract and could become a topic of discussion if the parties wanted to stop the bloodshed.
Moreover, unconfirmed reports are circulating that the Chinese are already ready to adjust their plan, which was to stop hostilities on the line of contact. But it’s not World War II or World War I, and while it’s tough enough, it’s still a limited conflict.
I repeat that in general, if one starts from the need to stop the death of people, the Chinese are, curiously, the most constant partisans of peace. Another question is that this Chinese strategy does not work, because it contradicts the interests of all parties to the conflict. None of them is ready to make concessions yet.
In general, it can be said that China’s peace plan so far only meets its interests (the fastest end to the confrontation), but at the same time is unacceptable to the warring parties.
What needs to happen for the US and China to come up with a unified initiative
Despite all the radicalism of the American position, we still see in recent months the willingness of the United States to negotiate with China so that it does not experience frustration. And it was – both from his political impotence in the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and from the fact that relations with the United States did not go well. It was a very painful period for the Chinese “ostrich”, which had to lift its head from the sand and accept the prevailing reality.
The confrontation in Ukraine shows that China is experiencing a certain lack of leverage to independently influence such international super-crisis situations. If you will, China lacks the “soft power” to solve them.
Therefore, I accept that if the Chinese at some point come up with an adequate peace plan, the United States and the West as a whole might accept China as some kind of participant in this process, not wanting to frustrate it even more. Indeed, despite all the declarations of American politicians, the United States absolutely does not need a confrontation with China now.
Andy Wong/AP
What does China want in the end?
China wants, ideally, a return to what it was. To the broad attraction of foreign capital, to the gradual transformation of itself from the “factory of the world” into a kind of innovative unit of the world economy. China wants to become a global exporter of capital in one form or another, despite the inconvertibility of the yuan. This is what the Chinese want.
What the PRC does not want is decoupling, i.e. the severance of relations with the United States. China wants to continue to cooperate with the United States. That is why he is afraid of secondary sanctions, because the yuan is pegged to the dollar (it is said to be on the basket of currencies, but in reality, of course, on the dollar). The regulation of the exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar is the main instrument of China’s domestic monetary policy.
Assuming the dedollarization of China, this should inevitably lead to a radical restructuring of the macroeconomic regulatory system in China. The Chinese cannot afford it. At this stage, it is not realistic.
China therefore depends on dollar-yuan conversion operations and vice versa. One of the most powerful secondary sanctions could be for the United States to limit the volume of these transactions. After all, for many decades they mostly go through US banks.
In addition, states can prohibit their companies from investing in China. A significant portion of China’s gold and currency reserves are located overseas. More than two-thirds of them are either in US government bonds or invested in production chains that are drawn to China from around the world.
The Americans can very well put their paws on all of this, and the Chinese economy just can’t handle it. This is not my useless reasoning, but the opinion of Chinese experts. At the end of April – beginning of May 2022, several meetings were held, information about which was disclosed, during which the issue of the stability of the Chinese economy and financial system was raised. And the consensus of the specialists was just this: if something like this happens, then we will not resist.
This is why China wants to normalize its relations with the States, wants to continue to be the factory of the world and to receive foreign investments. He declares himself as the only supporter of globalization in a multipolar world, where everyone wants to close themselves off. This is also one of the reasons why they want to put an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
What will happen when China realizes it’s impossible
The ideal does not exist and never will. But it would be nice if the United States and China agreed on a formula for a way out of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so that the states would “take the PRC on board”, and the Chinese would not finally realize that the meat chopped is somehow the real can not be reversed.
At the same time, it is uncertain whether the PRC correctly assesses the prospects for the development of the current situation. However, this can most likely be said of all participants in the current conflict.
Thus, States could, for example, ask the PRC to continue to play a constructive role on the international scene. China could be allowed to actively cooperate with Russia or involve Ukraine in the restoration and thus reduce Sino-American tension.
I do not play on the side of the Chinese, but we must recognize that the Americans started first. Biden also said America would build a policy of strategic uncertainty with China. And the normalization of relations between China, the United States and the European Union on the basis of the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could be a very reasonable strategy.
Read the Latest Ukraine War News on The Eastern Herald.
