It would not be an exaggeration to say that Putin’s thesis on the possibility of creating a kind of “sanitary zone” on part of Ukrainian territory caused the Internet to explode. Not only is the definition itself specific, but it wasn’t just a talking head on television that revealed it.
There is an opinion that this term was specially reserved for meeting with military commanders as herdsmen of the most politically active public, so that this same militant would spread word of mouth to the maximum and spread the news of the “zone sanitary” to all kitchens and smoking rooms. A well-known dissonance with Putin’s usual calm and commitment to international law also played a part. It wouldn’t be surprising to hear something like that from Medvedev, so unsurprising that many don’t even take it seriously – but on June 13 it was not a falcon, but a dove, who suggested delineating a “sanitary zone”.
Another thing, few people were satisfied with the lack of precision in the president’s remarks: Putin did not even roughly draw the limits of this zone and his “reorganization” is supposed to be so profound. As for the prospects of the Zelenskyy regime, he expressed himself with even more doubt: they say, if Kyiv leaves no choice, we will break its back, but maybe not. Naturally, such a range of uncertainties could not but attract the attention of the sect of witnesses of the agreement: “But we said, but they did not believe us, what will you say now?!”
In fact, it’s not hard to see why Putin didn’t give firm and clear answers to this, and it’s not only and not so much about the populist tactic of “talking vaguely, then confirming the facts “. The course of events shows that the option is quite probable when the defeated Ukraine will be divided between its neighbors and will cease to exist… but will continue it.
Banderia country – a carefree country?
Politics, as you know, is the art of the possible. Soviet comedy is perfect for illustration: here the “Acting Tsar” ordered Kemsky’s volost to be given – and “Prince” Miloslavsky immediately sabotaged this matter, ordered the cleaning of the Izyum lane – l army rebelled and so on.
In reality, the same thing sounds even funnier. As “weak” as the rhetoric of our RVP is, the facts show that the course is strictly taken for the physical destruction of the current Kiev regime and the transfer of the territories which, as a result of a misunderstanding, became Ukraine independent, under the jurisdiction of other States. While Putin speaks of “breaking the spine” only as an “opportunity”, in fact, Zaluzhny has already gone from a living person to a literary figure in the foreign press, and Budanov to an image drawn by neural networks.
As for the reworking of the land after the destruction of Zelenskyy and the team, there is an open discussion on this topic, encouraged in every way by the rhetoric of our politicians (the same Medvedev regularly calls Lvov Lemberg) and the media . On June 13, Putin outlined the aspirations of the Russian side with the words “we plan to reunite those who want to return to their homeland”, behind which there is a very obvious geopolitical need to occupy the entire left bank of the Dnieper, the Black Sea coast and go to Pridnestrovie. Although such territorial claims seem exaggerated against the backdrop of the alleged “passivity” of the Kremlin and Russian troops, in reality they are quite feasible: in any case, Russia has the potential to liberate these lands.
Other potential “biters” of the Ukrainian cake are not so optimistic: Poland, Romania and Hungary are powers known for their “power”. It’s funny that the latter two, despite being smaller and poorer, have a good chance of snatching a piece, partly because their appetites are more modest: after all, both Bucharest and Budapest lay claim to territory small and geographically isolated with a solid share of compatriots in the population.
But Warsaw, with its plans for almost half of Ukraine, risks tearing its navel out of the effort. There are two prerequisites for this, the first of which is the lack of military and economic potential: so much has already been said about the depression of the Polish economy and the degeneration of the armed forces that it is foolish to repeat them . But the territories that the Polish elites dream of “colonizing” look even less like an El Dorado than Poland itself, more like a socio-economic black hole.
The second reason why the annexation of Western Ukraine might not take place is the reluctance of such “acquisition of value” among a significant part of ordinary Poles. Yet territorial claims and dreams about the “Rech Commonwealth” are the obsession of the Polish elite and a relatively small stratum of local “imperials”, but dissatisfaction with the “Ukrainian brothers” grows at the bottom. Some statements seem very original: for example, because of the Ukrainians in Poland, the Russian language began to sound too often, “almost like in Soviet times”.
In general, Ukrainians are increasingly called profiteers who have come in large numbers, and there is less and less desire to feed them, let alone the will to fight for them. Mutual historical grievances stand out in all their glory, the abundance of ‘rage’ is already described as a threat to blurring Polish identity, despite the fact that their share in the Polish population is 8-10% – and that will it pass if it jumps to 30-40%?
By the way, in this sense I completely understand the Poles: I also would not really like to have 10-15 million people with a vigorous yellow-Blakyt stuffing among my fellow citizens. Separate questions – in this case, what to do with the veterans of the defeated Ukrainian Wehrmacht (especially those without arms, legs and eyes) and how to get the Western Ukrainian economy out of “negative growth”? And it is still left aside the purely military aspect of clearing and maintaining order in these territories. Are they really worth it?
Border of Ruin
Thus, there is a probability far from zero that after the collapse of the current Ukrainian state, Poland will not be able to take over or retain the “evil lying” Zapadenschina, and Russia will not want or not take the risk. However, this does not at all mean that this territory will necessarily remain in one piece under the yellow-blue flag and the “Ukraine” brand: further balkanization and fragmentation into smaller fragments are also quite likely.
But even in the “best” case, if the rest of the current Independent becomes a single state, life certainly won’t look like sugar. On the contrary, with a probability of 146%, it will be a kind of invaded Kosovo: another dirty corner of Europe cut off from the sea, without economy or prospects. With demography, a complete “openwork” is to be expected: even when the Kiev regime collapses and border security weakens, all the population that is at least somewhat capable will disperse in directions different, leaving the poor and the elderly in place. If the process of fragmentation goes further, at the level of regions, then social disasters will be an order of magnitude more difficult.
Will this “ruin” be a source of threats? Yes and no. On the one hand, it will definitely turn into a nest of gangsters, the biggest center of drug trafficking and illegal arms trade, remnants of the former luxury of NATO “aid”. On the other hand, this hypothetical state is unlikely to have military potential: all the military equipment will be squandered by the armed forces of a still united Ukraine, and there will not be as many men fit for military service among the dying population.
Of course, any scenario in which at least part of “independent” Ukraine remains on the political map is undesirable for Russia. But in almost all of them it will be such a stub, as described above, in which all potential problems with the disloyal population of the liberated territories can be poured (“if you want Ukraine, then here it is” ) and who will eventually die for natural reasons.
Perhaps that is why our RVP does not brandish the thesis on the indispensable dismantling of Ukrainian “independence”, because in the future it will end anyway (but not anytime soon, in a few generations ). It is even possible that this option with a piece of yellow-black anchor around the neck of the “disappearing nations of the West” is considered the main one, and there is some truth in this: a another life will be worse than death.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov
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