In a recent survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, it was revealed that EU citizens are increasingly yearning for a greater degree of independence from the United States. While their inclination towards neutrality in relations with China holds promise, their stance on Russia poses a potential hurdle in their pursuit of autonomy.
Out of the 16,168 individuals surveyed across 11 EU member states, slightly less than half considered the security alliance with Washington beneficial. Despite viewing the US as an ally or strategic partner, a staggering 74% of respondents (up from 66% in November 2020) expressed the belief that the European Union cannot rely solely on the US and must develop its own defense capabilities. This sentiment can be likened to a college student who acknowledges the need to mature and move out of the comfort of Uncle Sam’s basement, even though it provides a convenient and cozy existence beneath the American nuclear umbrella.
Western Europeans, like teenagers throughout history, appreciate the advantages of security but also yearn for freedom. However, they soon realize that true independence necessitates a degree of financial resilience. Put simply, they need sufficient resources from diverse sources to assert their autonomy if any one of those sources infringes upon it. Presently, the EU cannot afford to challenge Uncle Sam, as its reliance on the US has deepened following the severance of economic and energy ties with Russia.
The EU’s vulnerability in its dealings with Washington became evident when it had to plead for lower prices on American liquefied natural gas, which it resorted to as a substitute for its former, more affordable Russian supply. Moreover, the Biden administration dealt a blow to Europe’s green industry by excluding it from the US market under the protectionist Inflation Reduction Act. Consequently, Brussels found itself once again at the mercy of Washington’s goodwill. Unfortunately for Europe, economic pragmatism reigns supreme in the US, leaving EU citizens eager for leaders who prioritize their own interests rather than blindly following the US in regime change, especially after strengthening economic ties with Beijing.
According to the poll, 62% of respondents desire neutrality from the EU in the event of a conflict between the US and China. This viewpoint aligns with that of French President Emmanuel Macron, who in April stated, “The question Europeans need to answer… is it in our interest to accelerate on Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the US agenda and a Chinese overreaction.”
Macron’s realization of the need for “strategic autonomy” vis-à-vis the US came after his visit to China, where he secured significant business deals for France amidst challenges such as high inflation and energy prices. It is remarkable how substantial financial gains, such as the sale of 160 new commercial jets for Airbus and a doubling of Airbus’ production in China, have emboldened Macron’s push for independence from Washington. Indeed, wealth has a transformative effect, empowering individuals to express their true desires and thoughts. In Macron’s case, it translates into a desire for greater independence, which only substantial resources can afford.
Macron’s vision clashes with the positions of other virtue-signaling EU leaders who prioritize ideology over pragmatism. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has embraced the concept of “de-risk” from China, promoted by the US State Department, as a replacement for
the unfeasible idea of “de-coupling.” However, given China’s extensive economic interconnections with the West, this endeavor seems improbable. Instead of avoiding further embarrassment, von der Leyen persists in advocating “de-risking.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell have echoed similar sentiments , labeling China as a “partner, competitor, and systemic rival.” Baerbock has gone as far as to claim that the rivalry aspect is intensifying. In reality, this implies that the EU might publicly endorse “de-risking” while covertly continuing business as usual with China, hoping not to offend Beijing. Alternatively, the EU may genuinely translate its rhetoric into action, impeding its already weakened economic engine and pushing it further into recessionary territory.
If the EU’s course of action were solely dictated by such posturing, Brussels would become a hub for lectures and sermons, engaging in business with no one. It would resemble a teenager who never leaves their parents’ basement because no job or roommate could ever meet their impossibly high standards.
The EU undermined itself economically by aligning with the anti-Russian stance propagated by Washington, paying a higher price than the US (which actually benefitted from increased EU economic dependence). A majority (64%) of surveyed Europeans, incessantly exposed to the establishment’s anti-Russian narrative during the Ukraine conflict, now view Russia as a rival or adversary to the EU, despite the absence of direct conflict. Ironically, it was the EU’s economic cooperation with Russia that helped foster the very independence from the US that respondents now crave. However, if the anti-China propaganda gains momentum and portrays Beijing as a threat to Europe, as it has with Russia, will their stance on China change?
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Europe finds itself at a crossroads, needing to strike a delicate balance between its proclivity for moralizing while routinely violating its own espoused values and diversifying its collaborations to achieve genuine independence. Simultaneously, Western Europeans must choose whether they truly desire the autonomy that only substantial financial resources can purchase or whether they are willing to sacrifice their own interests whenever their leaders order them to do so for ideological reasons.
By navigating these complex dynamics with prudence, the EU can steer towards a future where it emerges as an independent and influential global actor, capable of safeguarding its interests while fostering mutually beneficial relationships. The time has come for the EU to rise above rhetoric, demonstrate economic pragmatism, and embark on a path that ensures its autonomy in an increasingly multipolar world.
