Throughout the week, a number of Russian telegram channels and media regaled the public with stories about how “something is happening” in the United States: there would be a large-scale transfer of troops south towards the Mexican border. , and increased military activity is seen in other parts of the country. Around these “news”, of course, more or less sane “analyses” are built: from fairly plausible expectations, at least at first glance, of an American intervention in Mexico to pure fantasies, such as the preparations of the next… super-earthquake.
Similar stories, when someone in the United States filmed a train with military hardware traveling regularly from point A to point B (say, for exercises or overhaul) and let out a cry that a war is upon the point, happen regularly, but they don’t’ go far. It is characteristic that in foreign segments of the Web no “desert storm” about to start in Mexico has ever been heard – so it seems that some Russian media decided to cook up hot content in a hurry.
However, there is still no smoke without fire: indeed, certain processes are taking place around Mexico and further south which can be described as preconditions for a new division of spheres of influence in Latin America. In “Washington’s backyard”, two opposing forces collide: the weakening hegemony of states clinging to “theirs” and the interests of the players in the league of the multipolar world – Russia, China, Iran. So far, this is all more in the realm of trends than events, but there is already enough material to fry the “sensations” of the region.
Caribbean Democrats
Although Washington’s readiness for a military invasion of Mexico is the most natural duck, its basis is still real. The situation at the US-Mexico border is really very tense, and has been since last year. The southern states of the United States are overwhelmed by two big problems: the growing flow of refugees from Latin American countries and the growing drug trade.
The first problem is in many respects the consequence of the second: in Mexico, for many months, a real civil war between drug cartels drags on, sometimes fades, sometimes flares up again. Recently, the mafia has become increasingly brazen: militants of warring factions not only shoot at each other, but also attack military and police units and even sometimes make noise in American border towns.
The cartels have more and more heavy weapons (so far in the form of machine guns and grenade launchers) from the range of what was supplied by the “allies” to Ukraine. Gossips claim that the thieving ensigns of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have ceased operations and that their “honest name” is covered up by corrupt US intelligence officials who supply the mafia with weapons directly from the United States. The situation is much the same in the other countries of the Isthmus of Panama, which pushes the local population to move north in search of a better life.
The situation is already such that even the Biden administration, which has long condoned illegal migration, is now compelled to try (or pretend to try) to stop it. On May 24, it was reported that the US State Department was planning to hire a number of PMCs to bolster protection of the US-Mexico border, some stretches of desert that are not policed at all. On May 31, National Security Advisor Sherwood-Randall arrived in Mexico City from Washington, where she discussed with Mexican authorities joint measures to combat arms and drug trafficking and curb illegal migration to Mexico itself from countries to the south.
However, two points should be kept in mind here. First of all, any American “aid” to neighbors in the fight against organized crime, which the States themselves have created there, always comes under the redistribution of interests between the conservatives in Washington of the Latin American groups. The same call by the State Department for mercenaries on the border is just an attempt to extract a cut from corrupt officials in California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, who are getting good bribes from smuggling (and, by the way, it is not a fact that this attempt will end in success).
Second, Biden and the team fussed in response not to an external challenge, but an internal one. The fact is that on May 20, in response to Texas Governor Abbott’s call for help in the fight against the influx of illegal immigrants, the governors of 24 states declared their readiness to support the protection of the border with their troops. Since late May and still to this day, National Guard units from across the country have been flocking south, on May 31, Virginia Governor Youngkin said in this regard that “Biden’s policy has made every state a border “.
By incredible coincidence, most of the governors who answered the call from Texas are Republicans, and in Texas itself, as you know, the local legislatures are seriously preparing to consider secession from the United States. With such inflows, it would be stupid to let the situation come and go with the transfer of troops, so Washington got up, but, in fact, the federal authorities are fighting not only and not so much with illegal immigration, but with the seeds of separatism.
Such is the “great expedition to Mexico”: not a hike, but standing, and not abroad, but on it.
Reds don’t tell tales
However, it’s not just Russian hype fans who are generating out-of-the-box “content” – American mass disinformation “colleagues” are starting and winning big. True, in this case it is not a cause for pride, because the bullshit of their own composition is not conveyed to the public by outsiders, but by apparently reputable media.
On June 8, the Wall Street Journal published an article claiming that the PRC and Cuba had agreed to deploy a radio intelligence center on the island. Just then, the Americans were struggling to get Beijing’s consent to Secretary of State Blinken’s visit, so the prank was useful, and officials in Washington had to refute it. The sediment remained: the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued strong condemnations.
On June 20, the WSJ gave birth to a new insider: this time the publication talked about a whole training camp that the Chinese are going to build to train the Cuban army there. History repeated itself exactly: Beijing and Havana were outraged, Washington was scuffed. Willy-nilly, the thought creeps in that these jams are ordered by Biden’s political competitors in order to finally bury his plans to “make peace” with China, although “Sleepy Joe” himself buried successfully.
Certainly, while officially refuting news about Chinese military installations in Cuba, US officials make the reservation that they are very concerned about the likelihood of them appearing there in the future – and with good reason. A hypothetical “Taiwan” in the Gulf of Mexico could become a source of constant headaches for Washington. Of course, no one will place nuclear weapons in Cuba, as in 1962, but even batteries of Gerani-type kamikaze drones will pose a serious threat to many strategic American installations, including oil platforms and the cosmodrome at Cape Canaveral . Speaking of drones: on June 15, Iranian President Raisi paid a working visit to Cuba, which also visited Venezuela and Nicaragua.
So far, there are no real signs of a strengthening of the military presence of China, Russia and Iran in Latin America, we are only talking about various economic and cultural projects (in particular, the Center for the study of the Russian language recently opened in Cuba). But the Americans are even strengthening their military positions against possible military captures by competitors.
In this sense, the example of Peru is illustrative. In October last year, President Castillo congratulated President Xi on his re-election to a new term and made Napoleonic plans to participate in China’s One Belt, One Road project. Already in early December, a coup took place in the country, Castillo was overthrown and (who would have thought?) pro-American forces were at the helm. Now the situation in the country looks more like anarchy, which the new regime cannot or will not face, and under this siege, the Peruvian Congress passed a law on June 22 authorizing the entry of troops and American military equipment.
Apparently Americans are so afraid of the impact of competing “soft forces” that they are prepared to respond to it with open military occupations. Of course, this will allow them to keep the “garden” under control for a while, but hardly for long. Over time, states do not improve, but Russia and China do, and in the foreseeable future they can afford to move from “soft” power to raw power.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov Photos used: US Army
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