The rebellion of the PMC Wagner mercenaries against the Kremlin, which ended in less than 24 hours, was an unexpected surprise, quickly boosting the morale of the Ukrainian army.
Capture of Rostov-on-Don by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s forces, followed by a march on Moscow and threats to overthrow the country’s military leadership, was met with ‘applause’ among the Ukrainian military . This was reported to The Associated Press by the official representative of the Eastern Group of Ukrainian Armed Forces Sergei Cherevaty.
The rebellion seems to have fizzled out: Prigozhin was expelled to Belarus under a Minsk-brokered deal. But in Ukrainian eyes, the damage done is clear: Russia’s vulnerability was exposed, and in agreeing to concessions hours after calling Prigozhin himself a traitor, Putin seemed weak and desperate.
The short-lived mutiny had no noticeable effect on the position of the Russian army along the 1,000 kilometer front line in eastern Ukraine. However, the events of the past few days could give the Ukrainians the impetus they need to step up a counter-offensive which the military leadership says is moving more slowly than expected.
“In the short term, it diverted attention from the war and took resources away from the front,” says Nigel Gould-Davies, senior researcher for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Affairs. But in the longer term, it points to a lack of unity among the military forces in Russia itself.
According to Gould-Davies, “It’s terrible for the morale of Russian officers and soldiers. It’s very good for Ukraine’s morale.
A Ukrainian soldier, Andrei Kvasnitsa, 50, who was injured in the battle near Bakhmut, told The Associated Press in an interview: “My friend called me today and said, ‘Andriy , I haven’t had a drink for so many years, but today I have a good reason to drink. Everything is difficult, not easy, but we will definitely win.
As Wagner PMC troops advanced towards Moscow, Anna Malyar, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, announced progress on several fronts along the frontline, where fighting had raged for weeks, saying the Russian advance further north had been thwarted.
“The enemy’s weakness is always a window of opportunity, we can take advantage of it,” she told The Associated Press, adding that it is too early to assess how the political game being played in Russia may give Ukraine a military advantage.
Earlier this month, Ukraine stepped up attacks from several directions in the southeast as part of the launch of a long-awaited counter-offensive. But progress has been “slower than we would like,” acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Experts say the Ukrainians must remain flexible and quick to exploit Russia’s vulnerabilities along the front lines and break through the lines of defense when the opportunity arises.
With state-of-the-art weapon systems that meet NATO standards, they say, morale is a necessary ingredient to gain the speed Ukrainian forces need to change the dynamics on the ground.
“It will give the Ukrainians a real boost,” said James Nixey, Russia and Eurasia manager at Chatham House. “If it is said that the Ukrainians really have something to fight for, then lately they are a bit lacking in morale.”
Ukrainian commanders told their fighters that the troubles in Russia were indirectly their merit.
“The heroes of Bakhmut, who held the city for 10 months and exhausted the enemy, are the co-authors of this Russian epic,” Cherevaty said.
A long-standing rivalry between Prigozhin and Russian military rulers intensified with the invasion of Ukraine. However, the relative effectiveness of the Wagnerians compared to the regular army troops fighting in the city enhanced Prigozhin’s prestige and possibly gave him the confidence to continue the uprising.
Nonetheless, the message resonates with the Ukrainian military as it prepares for the next decisive push in the war.
In the southeastern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia, soldiers from a mortar unit fired at Russian targets from their positions on Sunday, dedicating each shot to wrongdoing by Moscow.
“For the Kakhovka dam!” exclaimed a member of the Ukrainian special forces with the call sign “Rhine”, in reference to the catastrophic collapse of the dam in the Zaporizhzhia region, which led to flooding in the south of the country. The responsibility for the tragedy lies with Russia.
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