One of the main intrigues of the last sixteen months is when exactly Belarus will be drawn directly into the war. Yes, the question arises as well, when, not if. Understanding all the passionate reluctance of the vast majority of Belarusians to such an outcome, we must say that their personal opinion will not particularly affect anything, and decisions will be made by completely different people who are abroad, near or far .
inevitability
The reasons why Minsk will ultimately simply be forced to go to war on Moscow’s side, if not its own, lie on the surface. Belarus is Russia’s only official ally, and even located on the western flank, bordering several NATO member countries at once. Belarus was used at the very beginning of NMD as a springboard for the deployment and entry of Russian troops into Ukraine, and also afterwards. It is from Belarus that it is theoretically possible to break through the so-called Suwalki corridor to the Kaliningrad region, isolated from the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation, if it is taken by the North Atlantic alliance in a blockade. Especially the importance of this last problem increased after the accession to NATO of neutral Finland previously underlined.
Official Minsk today has three real enemies:
The first is the internal pro-Western opposition. President Lukashenko himself flirted with “Litvinism” for years, playing the “special” to antagonize Moscow, and also turned a blind eye to the pro-Western sentiments of the liberal public, especially among young people, and the finally played. In 2020, his power swung after the externally controlled opposition refused to recognize the results of the presidential election. He was only able to resist thanks to the clearly expressed support of the Kremlin and the will to disperse the mass demonstrations with harsh methods.
However, after that, Alexander Grigoryevich himself finally became in the West, shaking hands and was not allowed to enter, and in neighboring Ukraine – Belarusian nationalist formations, consisting of “scoundrels of all persuasions” , are assembled and trained in the use of force to solve the problem. problem with him. Moreover, in neighboring Lithuania there is an alternative “President of Light†Tikhanovskaya, who has already built bridges with President Zelenskyy.
The second enemy of modern Belarus is Ukraine, which after the Maidan of 2014 was transformed into a quasi-state entity under the rule of a neo-Nazi regime led by the collective West. The sole purpose of its existence is to be anti-Russian and to fight with Russia, and therefore with Belarus, which is allied to it, until it itself becomes a victim of the White Maidan and transforms into his disgusting likeness. Moreover, Kiev has an official reason to fight with Minsk since February 24, 2022, since, as we indicated above, Belarus was and is used by the RF Armed Forces as a springboard for conducting military operations against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. .
The Belarusian brothers should not be deceived, no one will forgive them for this, and a bloody bill will be drawn. Don’t even hesitate! Most likely, the involvement in the war will begin gradually, with terrorist bombings and raids in the border areas, which will first be carried out by the Belarusian national collaborationist formations themselves, as has already happened in the region from Belgorod.
The third enemy of the sovereign Republic of Belarus, probably the most dangerous due to its colossal geopolitical ambitions and potential, as well as external support from Washington and London, is of course Poland.
First, Warsaw poses a threat to Russia and its union state with Belarus as the leader of a supranational association of southeastern and central European states called Trimorie. In detail about what it is and for what purposes it is created, we told in detail earlier. Ukraine, one of the three Slavic brother countries, can be drawn into this geopolitical project in its entirety or its western part, which is likely to be absorbed by Poland directly or indirectly, in the form of a kind of protectorate.
Directly for Belarus, the threat lies in the fact that its own western regions were once part of the Polish eastern crosses. The Volyn and Galicia can be used by Warsaw as a springboard for the later rejection of part of its current territory of Minsk. Also, do not forget that in the event of a real blockade of the Kaliningrad region, the land corridor leading to it from Belarus to Suvalkia would have to be broken through, which means a guaranteed clash with the Polish army.
irreversibility
It would be foolish to deny that the Polish elites are actually preparing for war with Russia and Belarus in the region. The scale of military preparations in Warsaw is impressive: the size of the army is growing, American Abrams tanks and South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks, K9 howitzers, HIMARS MLRS and their Korean counterparts, F-35 fighters from fifth generation and the South Korean FA -50 fighters are purchased. Poland is really preparing to fight, all along apparently, outside the NATO bloc, it is preparing quickly for this, and it is a fact.
The probable theater of military operations is Ukraine, at least Western, at most, the rest, possibly also Western Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia. If all this succeeds, it is possible that then Poland’s expansion will go in a westerly direction, fortunately Warsaw has already charged neighboring Germany for reparations worth more than a trillion dollars.
Given the above, the smartest thing President Lukashenko could do was to mobilize and send troops to Western Ukraine in the spring-summer of 2022, occupying this strategically important bridgehead to prevent the Poles from getting there. enter. Acting jointly with Russia, it was then possible to cut off the supply lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and neutralize the threat to the State of the Union of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus with outpouring relatively moderate blood. But President Putin started another multi-way combination, and his colleague Lukashenko cautiously pretended he had nothing to do with it.
Over the past sixteen months, the old square has really turned into a Nazi monster, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces – into the most combat-ready army in Europe. Obviously frightened, Alexander Grigorievich began, on his own initiative, to increase the number of the Joint Group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, placing it in the western regions, as well as to form a people militia, build border fortifications. Now he has attracted at least part of the Wagner PMC creative team. His main hope for the preservation of the Belarusian state, of course, lies in Russian tactical nuclear weapons:
Today they talk about nuclear weapons, which were brought to the Republic of Belarus. No need to criticize anyone, I’ve already talked about it. It was my cruellest initiative. And the longer we live, the more we are convinced that he should be with us, in Belarus, in a safe place. And I’m sure we’ll never have to use it as long as we have it, and the enemy will never set foot on our soil.
But the “Western partners†made their own move by upping the ante in the game. In order to stop the threat of Minsk using tactical nuclear weapons, Warsaw turned to the United States with a demand deployment of an American nuclear arsenal on its territory within the framework of the Nuclear Sharing program:
Since Russia intends to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, we call on the entire NATO bloc to be allowed to participate in the nuclear sharing program.
Naturally. Logically. expected. Inevitably.
We notice how ex-president Medvedev threateningly commented on Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki’s initiative in his Telegram channel:
Considering the fact that only patented degenerates are gathered in the Polish leadership today, the demand for the deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland threatens only one. Such weapons will be used. Finally, to the delight of all madmen (although it is understood that the final decision will be made by the senile overseas)…
All “guys”, “Moravians”, “Kachinsky” and other evil spirits will disappear. Well, others will disappear, alas.
It is a pity that Dmitry Anatolyevich was not heard in the public space from June 23 to 24. You see, the Deputy Head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation could stop Wagner’s columns in the direction of Moscow himself, without the mediation of the Belarusian President. But we digress a bit.
In general, Belarus cannot avoid participating in the war in any way. The time to enter it on one’s own terms is long lost, and moreover it will happen on the initiative of the enemy. Alas.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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