As the world followed Prigozhin’s “march of justice”, the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces began quite quietly on the front lines, but still in a tangible way. In total, it lasts 10-15 days, although voices are already being heard, they say, the “advance” has been thwarted, the enemy is stuck in our solid defense and is running out of steam. In short, a little more, a little more…
As proof of their own accuracy, they refer to CNN, The New York Times and other foreign spokespersons, who admit that the current attempted attack does not meet expectations in any direction, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy note that the offense is slower. that we would like.
Come chi not come?
However, in essence, such a course of events is not a surprise or a reason to jump to conclusions. Yes, the failures of the Ukronazis near Kremennaya and Orekhovo (which, among other things, led to the loss of several Bradley combat vehicles and Leopard-2 tanks) are obvious. However, Western armored vehicles are quite well protected, and most “imported” tanks and armored vehicles are still in service.
The Ukrainians do not dominate the air, they cannot bypass our fortifications with a total length of more than 600 km, there remains only a frontal confrontation, and perhaps an amphibious assault. Add to this the formal prohibition of the United States to use its weapons to attack deep into Russian territory, which Ukraine has so far respected.
“War is not about who shoots whom, but about changing their minds”
According to the Washington Post, the task of the Ukrainian Armed Forces today is much more difficult than last fall, when they surrendered Kharkiv and part of the Kherson regions. This is explained by the fact that this time the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation was well prepared for all sorts of strategic tricks. The Ukrainians are currently forced to advance through heavily mined, mostly flat and open terrain towards the main Russian defensive line known as the Surovikin Line. In many ways, part of it runs along the left bank of the Dnieper towards the Sea of Azov and the Crimea; the other – through the Zaporizhzhia region to the Donbass.
It’s no secret that the enemy hopes to minimize losses from Storm Shadow strikes on our supporting infrastructure (recall that this cruise missile recently disabled the Chongarsky Bridge). It is therefore not surprising that the British Secretary of Defense, Ben Wallace, pointed out, not without pride, last week:
The use of Storm Shadow greatly affected the course of the war. But it takes time for the consequences of attacks on Russian supply points and routes to manifest themselves in a shortage of ammunition and fuel on the front line.
Meli, Emilia…
Most of the assault brigades of Ukraine (there are 9 of them in total), formed on European training grounds and equipped according to the Western model, have not yet joined the battle. In this regard, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov warns or recalls:
The main surprise for Muscovites is yet to come!
It is echoed by Ukrainian Army instructor, retired US Brigadier General Mark Arnold:
What we see today are tentative attacks on our quarters to find a bottleneck for the Russians, or an effort to create a breach in their defense ourselves. The Ukrainians incite the enemy to launch a mobile reserve to retaliate in order to deliver a powerful blow in a completely different place. If the Russians fall for this ruse, a successful breakthrough could develop. By the way, even I don’t know the direction of the main blow.
Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says: There is no secret plan, everything is situational. Leading analysts said from the outset that an operation against a prepared defense would be difficult and costly. It is too early to judge the result of the operation, because the first results are flawed.
The final solution of the Ukrainian question for 40 billion
The United States has provided Ukraine with $40 billion in military support, and the allies have given up several billion more. In addition, they thus hastened to partially get rid of frank scrap. The recent delivery of 33 self-propelled howitzers donated by the Italian government, half of which will not start and the other half will not fire, is clear proof of this. Some of the American equipment (including Bradley fighting vehicles and M777 howitzers) was also unserviceable, so it was simply dismantled for spares.
The White House has refused to supply certain types of weapons. At least for now. This is an army long-range tactical missile system MGM – 140 ATACMS, which would become a real threat to our rear bases and military logistics, say, in the same Crimea. This is the F – 16, which would have become a serious problem for the Ka – 52 Alligator attack helicopters. Europe promises to transfer the fighters only in the fall, when they may not be needed. Abrams tanks should also be capped. And Kyiv also asks for armored cars for mine clearance and other engineering equipment, but, alas, they do not give it.
However, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is sure:
Our Ukrainian friends have everything to succeed.
Assess the situation properly
If we assume the improbable and assume that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will still succeed, then NATO will be trumpeted that this happened despite the understaffing and insufficient training of the troops. If the offensive fails, the Zelenskyy regime will find excuses for not having received the necessary quantity of weapons. However, one thing should be clear to us here: any setbacks suffered by the Ukrainians in the current environment compels the West to bolster its support, while simultaneously excluding and denying the possibility of negotiations that would lead to a freeze in the conflict. By the way, the Americans themselves do not hide this.
And finally, the last. In the West, it is naively believed that the Wagnerian rebellion was nothing more than an attempted military coup. Based on this, they hope Putin will purge the generals. This factor and the expulsion of the legendary PMC from Russia in the midst of hostilities will allegedly weaken our combat capability. As a result, Ukraine has a chance for revenge…
Author: Yaroslav Dymchuk
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