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Sunday, December 15, 2024

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Conflicts, Military and WarUkraine's NATO Membership Hangs in the Balance, Testing Zelenskyy's Patience at Summit with Biden

Ukraine’s NATO Membership Hangs in the Balance, Testing Zelenskyy’s Patience at Summit with Biden

Vilnius, Lithuania – President Joe Biden finds himself confronted with the pressing issue of Ukraine’s potential membership in NATO as he enters the second day of the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. With concerns from his Ukrainian counterpart, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on full display and disagreements among NATO leaders on this thorny issue, Biden grapples with the challenge of keeping the alliance united in the face of Russia’s invasion.

Ukraine has been a central topic on the summit’s agenda as President Biden strives to rally support for President Zelenskyy and Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict, according to CNN. While the final communique from the summit does address some obstacles to Ukraine’s entry into NATO, Zelenskyy is likely to seek further assurances from the allied nations.

Although US officials have made it clear that Ukraine will not be immediately granted NATO membership following this meeting, the group has offered few concrete steps or timelines to demonstrate substantial support for the war-torn nation.

Zelenskyy arrived in Lithuania on Tuesday and will actively participate in the summit, including a one-on-one meeting with President Biden. Despite this show of unity, Zelenskyy’s concerns were underscored by a strong statement he issued while en route to the gathering.

The Ukrainian president expressed his unease about the discussion of “certain wording” without Ukraine being directly involved, emphasizing that the focus was on an invitation for NATO membership, not Ukraine’s actual membership. Zelenskyy called the lack of a clear time frame for the invitation and membership “unprecedented and absurd.” He criticized the vagueness surrounding the conditions for inviting Ukraine, suggesting a lack of readiness among NATO nations to extend an invitation or grant membership to Ukraine. Zelenskyy emphasized the need for clarity and openly voiced his concerns at the summit.

The final communiqué, released on Tuesday, is unlikely to provide Zelenskyy with the answers he seeks.

Although the allies agreed to remove one requirement for Ukrainian entrance to the group— an action plan for membership—given Ukraine’s close relationship with NATO nations, they did not provide a definitive timeline for when Ukraine will officially become a member.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on Tuesday that Ukraine will be invited to join the military alliance “when conditions are met.” President Biden, who is set to deliver a major foreign policy speech later in the day, echoed this sentiment during his arrival at the summit, expressing his full support for the proposed language on Ukraine’s future NATO membership.

The obstacles surrounding Ukraine’s accession to NATO could make this meeting between Biden and Zelenskyy distinct from their earlier, more congratulatory encounters this year.

In a symbolic gesture, Zelenskyy’s first trip outside Ukraine since the war began was to Washington, where he was warmly received by Biden in the Oval Office. Zelenskyy later addressed the US Congress. A few months later, Biden reciprocated the visit by making a surprise trip to Kyiv, where he announced a substantial assistance package of half a billion dollars. The meeting was marked by air raid sirens sounding as the two presidents walked near St. Michael’s Cathedral.

Their most recent in-person meeting occurred at the G-7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, where Zelenskyy appealed to world leaders for increased assistance following Russia’s seizure of the town of Bakhmut after months of intense fighting.

This meeting will be overshadowed by the fifteen-year-long wait for Ukraine to receive definitive answers regarding its NATO membership. Although NATO initially welcomed Ukraine’s aspirations to join the alliance during a 2008 meeting in Bucharest, Romania, little progress has been made, and the timeline for membership remains uncertain.

The demand for a clearer pathway, a roadmap, or a statement at the Vilnius summit outlining the steps Ukraine must take to become a NATO member has become a central concern for Ukraine and several NATO allies. The credibility of the alliance is at stake, given the ongoing war and the hardships endured by Ukraine. The absence of a firmer sense of Ukraine’s path to membership may undermine NATO’s credibility.

While President Biden and his administration have reiterated NATO’s commitment to an “open door” policy, tensions within the alliance have emerged as Eastern European NATO members, situated along Ukraine’s borders, advocate for a stronger commitment to extending membership to Ukraine, including providing a concrete timetable.

As leaders gather, experts closely monitor whether the alliance can offer long-term security assistance to Ukraine, such as the provision of additional F-16 fighter jets and other substantial investments, as a signal of NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine in the face of Russia’s aggression.

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