The recent assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian Wagner Group, may trigger severe repercussions in Africa, marking a precarious venture for Russia as it seeks to fortify the Kremlin’s influence across the continent, as reported by The Guardian.
A Decade of Influence in Africa
For the past decade, the Wagner Group has been a prominent force in Central Africa, Mali, and Libya, aligning itself with regimes that either wish to sever ties with their Western allies or require covert and relentless warriors.
These endeavors encompassed extensive operations across Africa, where Wagner traded its military services for lucrative gold and diamond mining rights.
While the Kremlin has portrayed these activities as mere private commercial engagements, it has strategically utilized Wagner to broaden Russia’s sway in Africa, challenging Western powers like France and the United States, as per Reuters.
Wagner’s influence has permeated smaller African nations, enabling the mercenary group to construct a network that spans from the Mediterranean shores to Mozambique, The Guardian noted.
The Wagner-Kremlin Connection
Enrica Picco, Central Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, commented, “The responsibility for the crash still needs to be attributed but possibly this is something that will make African leaders even closer to the Kremlin … [It’s] a show of force and power and leadership that probably many African leaders will appreciate and see as more effective than communiques from western embassies.”
Last week, Prigozhin was seen in a video, armed and dressed in combat attire, presumably filmed in Africa.
Multiple sources have pinpointed Wagner’s commander in Mali, where approximately 800 of his soldiers are stationed, aiding local forces against rebels.
Expanding Footprint
Beyond Mali, Prigozhin’s influence extended to Central Africa, where the Wagner Group has orchestrated its “most comprehensive and successful” operation since being invited to the troubled and impoverished nation.
Central African President Archange Touadera has been criticized for allegedly seeking to remain “president for life” under the protection of Wagner’s Russian mercenaries, as reported by the African News website.
Wagner’s reach has further spread to Cameroon, Burkina Faso, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Though their attempt to assist Mozambique’s struggling government against rebels faltered, success was found in Sudan, where Wagner forged ties with Rapid Support Forces commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,” according to The Guardian.
In Libya, Wagner’s victory was marked by the deployment of over a thousand fighters under Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who controls the country’s east.
Haftar, a supporter of the eastern Libyan government, maintains close ties with the private Russian Wagner Group, which safeguards the nation’s military and oil infrastructure, as per AFP.
The Future Without Prigozhin
The aftermath of Prigozhin’s “failed” rebellion in June revealed scant evidence of immediate Kremlin efforts to manage Wagner’s African networks and assets.
However, analysts predict this is likely to shift following Prigozhin’s death.
Most experts concur that the Wagner Group has become “too indispensable for the Kremlin to lose.”
As Moscow continues to seek African allies in its standoff with the West, and as gold and other resources extracted by Wagner bolster the sanction-hit Russian economy, the desire to preserve Prigozhin’s legacy remains strong.
Dino Mahtani, an expert on African affairs, stated, “They want to try and preserve what Prigozhin has achieved.”
Yet, the Kremlin may face challenges in achieving a “smooth transition,” given the “personal loyalty” of some Wagner fighters to Prigozhin.
Alia Ibrahimi, an expert at the Atlantic Council Research Center, warned that the Kremlin is embarking on a “most crucial” by publicly assuming responsibility for Wagner’s operations in Africa.
The killing of Yevgeny Prigozhin has opened a complex and uncertain chapter in Russia’s engagement with Africa. The Wagner Group’s extensive influence and the Kremlin’s strategic interests have intertwined to create a delicate and potentially explosive situation. The coming months will reveal how Russia navigates this perilous path, reshaping perspectives and potentially catalyzing a new phase in diplomatic evolution.
