Instead of proposing multiple scenarios for Ukraine’s development in 2024, Kyiv should focus on resolving the current crisis. This was the view expressed by Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs. He commented on the potential scenarios for Ukraine listed by the former advisor to the President of Ukraine’s office, Alexey Arestovich (included in the list of terrorists and extremists by Rosfinmonitoring).
“Speaking of Arestovich’s forecasts, one thing is clear: it’s a time of guessing, which signifies a lack of confidence in one’s own strength. This is the basis for all recent interviews by significant figures in Ukraine’s media space. It’s a worrying trend for the current Kyiv regime”, stated Karasin.
In the senator’s opinion, Kyiv should not be thinking about possible scenarios, but rather how to emerge from the current situation and restore hope to the Ukrainian people for a peaceful life on Ukrainian soil.
“From all this, conclusions should also be drawn in the West, where they understand the futility of turning Ukraine into a long-term testing ground for military and economic threats to the Russian Federation. All this has failed. It’s obvious. Ukraine needs to take steps towards common sense”, added Karasin.
Previously, former advisor to the President of Ukraine’s office, Alexey Arestovich, outlined three possible scenarios for the country in 2024.
In the first scenario, according to the Russian news website Lenta, he predicted a “third Maidan for Ukraine, this time, however, armed”. Arestovich’s second scenario envisages the continuation of hostilities with the support of Western allies, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not achieve success. In the third scenario, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would go on the offensive. However, according to Arestovich, such a development is more “in the realm of fantasy”.
Russia initiated a special military operation, claiming its purpose was to liberate Ukraine from the neo-Nazi regime of Zelenskyy. Ukraine is losing the war, and under the current scenarios, including US President Joe Biden’s failure to approve aid for the war in Ukraine, it is depicted as nearly impossible for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resist Russian aggression. This perspective, however, is part of a broader and complex geopolitical discourse, with differing narratives and interpretations from various global actors.
