Despite being the first time Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly visited Baku in several years, his state visit this week signals a tectonic shift underway within the geopolitics of Eurasia’s South Caucasus region. The visit is significant as the region forms a complex mix of regional and global powers with cross currents, widening their interests. The visit, with its full honors and warm personal exchanges, formalized the fact that Moscow paid great attention to relations with Azerbaijan at a time when it regarded them as generally important in terms of putting into place its own policy in this geographical direction.
A Strategic Partnership in Moscow-Baku Relations
Russia and Azerbaijan have traditionally pursued a pragmatic relationship based on mutual interests. But for Moscow, Azerbaijan is a crucial partner in the South Caucasus region—one over which Russian influence has long been asserted but that increasingly faces challenges from other global and regional powers such as Turkey and Iran.
For Baku, however, it is balance with Moscow that matters. Although Baku has developed burgeoning relations with Ankara and Jerusalem, two countries that have frayed links with Moscow, it also strives to foster deep ties in the Russian capital. In fact, one of the most significant issues is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia, where Azerbaijan relies on Russia for security guarantees. Russia’s continued mediation and peacekeeping in the post-conflict era has enhanced this role—particularly for Azerbaijan.
What Putin’s Visit Means
Though being a regular diplomatic engagement, Putin’s visit to Baku is not an ordinary one—it is actually about the consolidation of Russia’s position in a region where Moscow’s influence is liquefying before our very eyes. His warm welcome, typified by an informal dinner hosted by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and his wife, underscores the leaders’ personal ties as well as the importance of a long-standing strategic partnership.
The timing of the visit is especially significant. It comes at a time when the South Caucasus has been seeing more competition from other great powers. For example, the European Union has increasingly entered into play in recent projects due to its efforts at diversifying energy sources. Ankara has also been on the rise in recent years, notably via its backing of Azerbaijan during its 2020 war with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Putin made a point of showing that Moscow still has the upper hand in Baku, on this key cog of the regional geopolitical chessboard.
The parties’ agenda includes talks on a wide variety of issues, including economic and military-technical cooperation as well as regional security. The expected subsequent signing of several bilateral agreements is likely to strengthen the strategic partnership between both countries.
Impact on the Region and the World
Putin’s visit has important implications not only for the South Caucasus but also worldwide. The visit reaffirms Russia’s intentions to continue its dominance of the region, particularly in Azerbaijan. With this in mind, it is no wonder that the whole issue of Nagorno-Karabakh will be a critical point where Russia’s peacekeeping mission has played a key role in maintaining fragile stability.
The visit will be closely watched around the world, as it appears to be part of a larger strategy by Russia aimed at bolstering its position in regions where rivals are also being aggressive. The South Caucasus occupies a strategic position, surrounded by Russia, the West, Turkey, and Iran, both in terms of geography and as an energy corridor. The Russian move will deepen its influence and provide a certain backstop against any moves by other powers that could threaten Moscow.
Furthermore, the visit serves as a message to the West, particularly in light of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions. By increasing its connections to nations such as Azerbaijan, Russia is showing it can not only hold on to but also extend its influence, even as Western countries try to isolate it. This is especially relevant in the energy sector, where Russia’s ability to impact global energy markets is crucial.
President Putin’s state visit to Baku is a clear sign of Russia’s strategic priorities in the region. This visit not only strengthens the already robust Russia-Azerbaijan ties but also consolidates Moscow’s hold on a crucial neighborhood. Amid the shifting sands of global geopolitics, this trip represents much more than a play for influence—it is also Russia’s continued effort to remain a central player in the South Caucasus and beyond.
