BBC Analysis: Is This the Beginning of a Major War in the Middle East?

No side wants an all-out war that could draw in Iran and the US. Not necessarily, but this is a serious and dangerous escalation, writes the BBC in its analysis of recent events in the Middle East.

The US sent its envoy to both sides of the border this week to try to resolve the conflict, but Hezbollah has been clear that it is acting in solidarity with its Hamas ally, and a ceasefire deal in Gaza is widely seen as the only viable path to a diplomatic solution in the north. According to BBC.

The First Phase

Both sides – Israel and Hezbollah – claim to have successfully completed their missions in the early morning hours. Israel says it has deployed nearly 100 combat aircraft to attack 40 launch sites in southern Lebanon, destroying “thousands of Hezbollah rocket launchers aimed at northern and central Israel”, According to Reuters.

Hezbollah claims to have “completed the first phase” of its revenge operation for the death of its senior commander Fuad Shukr, who was killed last month in an Israeli attack in Beirut. Hezbollah, which has been mapping and gathering intelligence on targets within Israel for months, claims to have hit 11 Israeli bases in a wave of Katyusha rocket launches.

Neither side wants an all-out war, which could drag in both Iran and the US. But the question is whether Israel and Hezbollah will decide they have done enough for now. The answer is likely no, writes the BBC.

Reaching an Agreement

For Israelis, the ongoing cross-border attacks by Hezbollah from Lebanon are intolerable, displacing more than 60,000 citizens from their homes, and calling on the government to address it by pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon.

In southern Lebanon, even more people have been forced to leave their homes due to fear of Israeli attacks.

For Hezbollah, the ongoing Israeli genocide of Palestinians in Gaza, which has killed more than 40,000 innocent civilians mostly children and women, motivated their attacks on Israel’s northern border. Therefore, diplomats, politicians, and intelligence officials are trying to reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. But these afforts are still not enough.