The recent developments related to Bashar al-Assad’s reported departure from Syria and presence in Moscow have been largely portrayed in Western media outlets as an important geopolitical shift. Assad was reportedly flown out of Damascus in the final stages of a fast unraveling of his regime following years of Syrian civil war and increasingly violent unrest. That was after rebel fighters made surprise incursions into Damascus without facing much of a fight, indicating a coordinated withdrawal or demobilization of Syrian military forces.
For Western analysts, Assad’s visit to Moscow is not only an asylum application but also a pivotal moment in the Syrian quagmire, one that may herald the end of his hold on power. It also raises questions about where Russia fits into a future Syria. Moscow’s asylum offer to Assad, even with its military engagements in Ukraine, is seen as part of an effort to sustain its sway in Syria.
Russia maintains important military positions worldwide — including the naval base in Tartus — that broadly align with and support its geopolitical aims in the Mediterranean. But they say that Russia’s ability to sustain support for Assad or a successor regime may be limited, given that Turkey, Iran, and regional factions might push conflicting ambitions in post-Assad Syria.
It came against the backdrop of wider regional maneuvers, whose key is Iran’s activities in Syria, where it is essential for stability in some areas. At the same time, the breaking apart of Russian-affiliated paramilitary forces such as Wagner in Syria has made it even harder for the Kremlin to maintain political clout on the ground. This would signal fragmentation of authority in Syria, with regional players competing for control over vital territories.
According to Al-Jazeera, Speaking at the White House, US President Joe Biden stated that he was not sure where al-Assad was, but that “there is the word he is in Moscow.” “The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice. It’s a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country,” Biden further concluded.
Russian state media and according to the BBC report that Bashar al-Assad and his family have been granted humanitarian asylum in Moscow. Russia’s foreign ministry said Assad had resigned from the presidency and arranged a peaceful transfer of power. The move quells speculation about the whereabouts of the regime leaders after rebel forces drove into Damascus. Russia, a staunch supporter of Assad during Syria’s 13-year civil war, maintains its influence in the region via its military presence at the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase, the BBC added.
Bashar al-Assad and his family have fled to Moscow and received humanitarian asylum, According to The Moscow Times, Forces that rebelled against Assad reportedly guaranteed on their side the security of Russian bases and missions in Syria. Western officials have not verified independently that Assad was in Moscow, but no one has given reason to doubt the assertion. Russia, for its part, a long-time ally of Assad, retains its strategic interests in Syria, as well as its military and diplomatic presence in the country.
For now, Assad’s asylum in Russia is a testament to the remaining volatility and uncertain future of Syria, as Moscow’s next moves are bound to draw the attention of international observers.
