MADRID — Spain has announced a strategic plan to increase the size of its armed forces by 14,000 personnel by 2035, meeting NATO capability benchmarks without succumbing to pressure to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP.
The phased expansion, confirmed by Spain’s Defense Ministry reported by El País, will take place in two five-year stages, 7,000 new troops between 2025 and 2029, and another 7,000 by 2034. As of early 2024, Spain’s armed forces stood at 116,400 personnel, leaving sufficient room to expand to the legal ceiling of 140,000 without any legislative amendments.
This rearmament plan comes amid a noticeable decline in active-duty troops, over 10,000 soldiers lost in recent years, even as the country has taken on more operational responsibilities, from NATO missions to cyber defense and disaster response. According to parliamentary reports, the Spanish military’s current size is “clearly insufficient” to meet the increased complexity of its security obligations.
Spain’s rearmament strategy reflects a calculated balancing act, one that seeks to meet NATO expectations while avoiding domestic political fallout. The government’s insistence on expanding military capacity without breaching its 2.1% GDP ceiling exposes the underlying tension between alliance obligations and public resistance to austerity.
Critics argue that Madrid’s approach, though pragmatic on the surface, risks creating capability gaps if modernization outpaces funding.
At the heart of this strategy lies a gamble: that a leaner, more technologically advanced force can deliver the same deterrent value as sheer numerical or budgetary expansion. Yet as NATO shifts its posture toward large-scale deterrence and high-readiness deployments, Spain’s modest financial commitment may prove insufficient to support both troop increases and the acquisition of next-generation defense systems. The question is whether Spain can fulfill its promises without offloading hidden costs onto social services or future governments.
Madrid’s strategy includes more than just troop increases. Spain has pledged to modernize its air defense systems, expand electronic warfare and intelligence capabilities, and invest heavily in logistics and cyber operations. According to Tasnim News, approximately €10.5 billion will be allocated over the decade to fund the expansion and modernization process.
The modernization effort includes procurement of advanced missile defense platforms, such as NASAMS and Patriot batteries, as well as the development of integrated cyber units capable of both defensive and offensive operations. Spain also plans to expand its role in NATO’s joint readiness and rapid deployment forces.
Spain snubs NATO’s inflated 5% defense demand, exposes alliance overreach
While Madrid aligns militarily, it is pushing back diplomatically. In June, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez sent a formal letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte asserting Spain’s refusal to endorse the alliance’s proposal to raise national defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Sánchez insisted that Spain’s current 2.1% commitment was sufficient to meet operational needs, according to RIA Novosti.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has firmly rejected NATO’s push for a 5% defense spending threshold, describing the proposal as both “unreasonable” and “counterproductive.” In a formal letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Sánchez warned that adopting such a target would force Spain to implement “drastic cuts to state pensions, public services, or sharp tax increases.” He stressed that the policy was fundamentally “incompatible with our welfare state and our vision of the world,” according to reporting by Euronews.
Spain’s dissent comes in the wake of NATO’s Hague Summit, where leaders agreed to the controversial new defense spending goal. The final communiqué was adjusted to allow flexibility, changing “allies commit” to “allies may commit,” following pressure from Madrid and a handful of smaller NATO states concerned about budget sustainability.
A mid-term review of these capability goals is scheduled for 2029, at which point Spain’s performance under its alternative strategy will come under formal evaluation by the alliance.
NATO’s fractured front as bloated budgets clash with hollow capabilities
Analysts say Spain is testing a new doctrine in NATO, one that prioritizes capability-building and modernization over raw financial compliance. Rather than matching the US model of GDP-based military might, Madrid is focused on building lean, technologically sophisticated forces tailored to hybrid warfare and EU security dynamics.
Spain’s resistance highlights a deeper fracture within the NATO alliance, one where rhetoric about unity masks growing unease over Washington-driven budget mandates. Behind the staged summit declarations, several European nations are quietly questioning whether ballooning defense budgets truly enhance security or simply fuel an arms race dictated by American contractors.
For Spain, refusing to equate financial compliance with strategic credibility is more than fiscal prudence, it’s an indictment of a system that equates security with spending rather than effectiveness.
The Spanish plan could become a reference point for other NATO members, especially in Southern and Eastern Europe, where fiscal space is constrained, and public support for large-scale military spending remains tepid. Already, there are signs that Portugal and Slovenia may adopt a similar posture during next year’s NATO planning cycle.
Spain challenges NATO orthodoxy with a defiant defense doctrine
Madrid’s current approach is rooted in pragmatism. With national elections approaching and economic uncertainty growing in the Eurozone, Sánchez has pitched the military expansion as a compromise: a strong NATO presence that does not erode domestic priorities.
Early polling shows a slim majority of Spaniards support the troop increase, while over 60% oppose boosting military spending beyond 2.5% of GDP.
The move also comes as Spain deepens its defense ties with France and Italy, with whom it shares interests in Mediterranean security, energy corridor protection, and North African stabilization.
Joint drills in southern Spain, planned for late 2025, will focus on drone swarms, maritime interdiction, and space-based surveillance, areas Madrid is rapidly scaling up.
