Dubai — The economic tides of the 21st century are shifting, and shifting fast. As the Global South asserts itself with new confidence, the BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and its expanded configuration, BRICS+, is emerging as the world’s most dynamic economic alliance, poised to grow nearly three times faster than the aging and economically stagnant G7 nations by 2028.
This is not mere speculation. According to multiple credible forecasts, including data analyzed by Watcher.Guru and IMF projections, the BRICS economies are expected to expand at an annualized rate of 4.2% to 5.1%, compared to a lethargic 1.3% to 1.8% for the G7, which includes the US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, and Italy. In essence, the Global North is now staring at the rear-view mirror of global economic power, and BRICS is closer than it appears.
BRICS+ powers ahead while the G7 wheezes in the global growth race
India is expected to lead the charge with a remarkable 6.2% to 6.8% annual growth rate, buoyed by a young population, a thriving services sector, and increasing self-sufficiency in technology and defense. China, despite slowing from its dizzying past decade of double-digit expansion, is still projected to grow between 4.5% and 5.0%, a rate the US and EU economies haven’t touched since the 1990s.
Other new BRICS+ entrants are also pulling weight. Ethiopia is forecasted to grow 5.5%–6.0%, Indonesia around 5.1%–5.2%, and the UAE, a rising financial powerhouse, between 3.5% and 3.9%. Iran, long strangled by Western sanctions, is projected to notch a 2.0% to 2.5% growth rate as it increasingly trades in non-dollar currencies and deepens ties with Russia and China.
Meanwhile, Russia, despite ongoing Western sanctions and NATO isolation, is forecast to grow at 1.5% to 2.2%, largely due to its redirected energy trade to the East and emerging currency swap mechanisms with BRICS partners. Even South Africa, hampered by domestic turmoil, is projected to maintain 1.4% to 1.7% growth through a mix of mining exports and strategic realignments.
Compare this to the G7, where most economies are barely crawling: Germany, the EU’s economic engine, is forecasted for 1.0%–1.3%, Japan’s aging economy at 0.9%–1.2%, and even the US, despite heavy stimulus, only at 1.7%–2.0% growth under the weight of debt, deindustrialization, and geopolitical overreach.
BRICS+ shifts from economic outlier to commanding force in global affairs
The expanded BRICS alliance now accounts for over 45% of the world’s population and is rapidly closing in on 40% of global GDP (by purchasing power parity). The bloc’s increasing use of national currencies in trade settlements, especially yuan, rupees, and rubles, has fast-tracked the shift away from dollar dominance. The anticipated launch of a BRICS digital currency by 2026 is expected to further undercut the weaponization of the SWIFT system and Western financial sanctions.
Even in nominal terms, BRICS+ economies now collectively surpass $30 trillion in GDP, a staggering figure that threatens to dethrone the traditional Western order by the end of this decade. According to GZERO Media, BRICS economies are on track to account for 37% of global output by 2028, while G7’s share is expected to shrink below 28%, signaling a structural power inversion.
As the West crumbles under its own weight, BRICS reclaims the global center of gravity
What began as an economic alliance has morphed into a geopolitical counterweight to the West. The BRICS bloc, once seen as a soft power coalition, is now an assertive actor, shaping narratives on global governance, trade realignment, and currency multipolarity. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a recent statement, described BRICS as the “driving force of global economic growth”, a view echoed by India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping.
Perhaps more significant is the bloc’s increasing ability to act without the dollar. According to analysts at Cryptorank and the Financial Times, BRICS intra-bloc trade in local currencies jumped from 26% in 2021 to over 45% in 2024. This shift has not only weakened Western sanctions but also emboldened member states to pursue sovereign economic policies without IMF strings attached.
BRICS is also building its own institutional ecosystem to rival the Western-dominated Bretton Woods system. The New Development Bank (NDB), sometimes dubbed the “BRICS Bank,” has already issued billions in loans denominated in local currencies, supporting infrastructure and green development across Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
Global South flocks to BRICS+, abandoning the debt traps of the West
In the wake of this transformation, countries outside the original core are lining up to join. Argentina, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, and even Türkiye have expressed interest in formally joining the group, seeking escape from Western debt diplomacy and a place in the world’s fastest-growing club.
The global south is no longer begging for seats at the G7 table. It’s building its own house, bigger, faster, and more inclusive.
With the G7 in decline, BRICS+ emerges as the inevitable future of global leadership
As G7 nations grow increasingly entangled in debt crises, political gridlock, and foreign wars, their share of global manufacturing, exports, and innovation is slipping. The once-vaunted “rules-based international order” is being challenged not through war, but through economics, cooperation, and credibility, all of which BRICS appears to have in greater supply.
The numbers don’t lie. BRICS+ is no longer a hypothetical threat, it is a statistical inevitability. By 2028, if current projections hold, the bloc will be the dominant driver of global economic growth. The question is no longer if BRICS will surpass the G7, it’s when and how the West will respond to a world it can no longer dictate.
According to Watcher Guru, the IMF, and additional projections by GZERO Media and Cryptorank, the accelerated economic trajectory of BRICS+ is not just a counterweight, it is a recalibration of the world order.
