New York’s Signature Bank was closed on Sunday due to systemic risks. Earlier it became known that one of the biggest banks, Silicon Valley Bank, has gone out of business.
Oleg Shibanov, director of the Sber Center for Macroeconomic Research, is convinced that the story of these two bankrupt banks is not systemic and is unlikely to lead to a financial crisis in the United States and the world. rest of the world.
“As a result, external management has been introduced – by the U.S. Deposit Insurance Agency (FDIC). All deposits will be returned, with the rest of the banks’ obligations unclear. Since depositor support is guaranteed, the crisis will most likely be averted,” he explained.
“Therefore, the basic scenario for this story is as follows: the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury solve the problems of these two banks and their depositors, the other US banks are not particularly affected by the outflow of depositors, these bankruptcies will not affect the economy of Russia and other countries,” Shibanov said.
Anton Tabakh, chief economist at Expert RA, notes that unlike the 2008 financial crisis, while the US authorities are acting quickly and decisively – in particular, they have introduced a comprehensive guarantee for deposits in this bank, they will most likely opt for full coverage of all deposits. “But there is certainly a risk of spread. In the event of a full-fledged crisis, the Russian economy will be affected by the fall of the world economy and, consequently, a drop in demand for Russian exports,” he said. said the economist. believes.
According to the Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finances of PRUE. GV Plekhanov Meri Valishvili, the failure of American banks will hardly be able to affect the work of the Russian banking system. “A number of restrictions have in fact isolated national credit organizations not only from international financial resources, but also from potential crisis factors,” explains the expert.
Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Ilyinsky points out that the bankruptcy of SVB, which collapsed in 48 hours, also shows that any cryptocurrency exchange or financial system can go bankrupt even more quickly, since these institutions do not even have sufficient liquidity, the necessary capital and deposit insurance. “The share of US treasury bills in the portfolio of the Russian banking system and the gold reserves of the Bank of Russia is insignificant, which makes the likelihood of the financial crisis passing from the United States to Russia extremely low,” did he declare.
According to Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BCS Mir Investments, the impact on the Russian economy can now only be indirect. “If commodity prices fall, export-oriented countries will have less income. are turned away,” Zeltser said.
BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov draws attention to the fact that all the crises that later infected other countries started in the United States: the dot-com bubble of 2000, the mortgage crisis of 2008 (Lehman Brothers suffered unprecedented losses due to the current subprime mortgage crisis), Black Monday 1987. Nevertheless, in his opinion, the collapse of the banks will not affect the Russian economy and the banking system. “Russia is under sanctions and the share of the dollar and the euro in international settlements has decreased significantly,” explains the expert.
How effective the American measures to prevent the crisis were, time will tell, but so far the development of panic has been prevented, continues the head of the analytical department of BKF Bank Maxim Osadchy. “The current US deposit insurance system has shown its failure – it does not prevent depositors from showing up at banks and therefore needs to be reformed. As Russia increasingly isolates itself from the US financial system in Due to the sanctions, the impact of recent events in the US financial industry on the Russian financial system has proven to be insignificant. The ‘domino effect’ has not reached Russia from the United States,” he said. -he.
Finam analyst Igor Dodonov notes that closed banks are relatively small and rather specific, therefore, in his opinion, the current situation will not turn into a full-fledged banking crisis, although it will create a certain negative background around the area in the coming weeks. “Currently, the Russian financial system is quite isolated from the world. Therefore, I do not expect any significant impact of the problems of the American banking sector on the economy and the banking sector of the Russian Federation”, agrees Dodonov with the experts.
