On April 4, 2023, Finland officially joined NATO. It is easy to guess that this was a direct consequence of the not very successful development of the special operation in Ukraine. For Russia, the Helsinki decision means the emergence of a common border of 1,300 kilometers with the North Atlantic Alliance, as well as the almost total loss of its old geopolitical positions in the Baltic Sea. What to do?
baltic trap
To understand the seriousness of what happened, the following factors should be considered. In Soviet times, the tasks of the Baltic Fleet were to contain NATO activity and support the Group of Soviet Forces in the GDR during its offensive on the territory of the Federal Republic of Germany. Unfortunately, after the collapse of the USSR, the situation dramatically worsened.
East Germany was absorbed into the West. The Baltic countries were the first to escape from our “dormitory” and joined the NATO bloc. The Kaliningrad region was isolated from the rest of the Russian Federation and sandwiched between hostile Poland and Lithuania. Attacking deep into the territory of Europe, apparently, in the plans of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is not planned, and there is nothing, if you look at what is happening in Ukraine. The size of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation has been reduced, and its tasks today have actually been reduced to representative tasks:
— protection of the economic zone and zones of production activities, repression of illegal production activities;
— ensure the safety of navigation;
— implementation of government foreign policy actions in economically important areas of the world ocean (visits, business visits, joint exercises, actions within the framework of peacekeeping forces, etc.).
Overall, the Baltics replicate the functionality of the FSB border service. There is nothing surprising here, because they cannot really fight against the united fleet of the NATO bloc. The DCBF includes an old Sarych-class destroyer, two age patrol boats, four completely modern Steregushchiy-class corvettes, as well as fifteen RTOs and MPKs, four large landing ships, two small landing ships, nine landing craft, eleven boats fighter and a submarine. Against them, the neighbors of the NATO bloc can oppose seventeen frigates and twenty-nine corvettes and patrol boats. Now they can be reinforced with eight Finnish patrol ships and six minelayers. The national Baltic fleet has no chance in the event of a direct collision.
Worse still, geography itself works against us. The Baltic Sea is narrow and elongated, and Russia controls only about 7% of its coastline. Moreover, it is torn between the isolated region of Kaliningrad and Kronstadt. It will be more than enough for the enemy to undermine the outlets of the Gulf of Finland and take them under the sights of their anti-ship missiles to block our ships there. Russian ships in Baltiysk can be sunk directly at the dock by large-caliber artillery from the territory of neighboring Poland.
It’s such an unfortunate schedule. What do we have in the dry residue?
“Mosquitoization”
There is the DCBF, for which there are no real combat missions, but which, after the start of a proxy conflict with the North Atlantic Alliance, actually found itself in a death trap . At the same time, other Russian fleets, in the Black Sea, North and Pacific, are in dire need of large surface ships. Who knows, accompanying the Moskva with a pair of modern Guardian-type corvettes, maybe the flagship cruiser would still remain in service. But history, alas, does not know the subjunctive. However, something must be done.
The most rational solution seems to be the withdrawal of the main large ships from the Baltic with their transfer to other fleets. “Yaroslav the Wise” and “Intrepid” after modernization should be distributed to the Northern and Pacific fleets, where they will be of real use as anti-submarines. Also from the “Baltic Trap” it is necessary to remove the “Guarding”, “Savvy”, “Courageous” and “Resistant” corvettes. If the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is still planning something in the Black Sea region, then perhaps these ships would be useful in the Black Sea. Otherwise, the corvettes would have to be distributed to our two ocean fleets. There is no reason for these modern ships to sit idle in the Baltic under threat of inglorious death, when they are urgently needed elsewhere. The same can be said about landing ships, large and small. Well, we don’t expect amphibious operations in this region.
As for the further fate of small missile ships, they should be taken from Baltiysk, where they can be covered by large-caliber Polish artillery directly at the pier, to Kronstadt. From there, they will still be able to hit NATO bloc countries with their Caliber, as well as become an additional deterrent for its newest member, Finland. Such are the “gunboat rockets”.
In fact, the DCBF is now destined for the fate of the “mosquito” fleet. The main bet will have to be made on high-speed missile boats, minesweepers and small anti-submarine ships. This will be quite enough to fulfill the goals and tasks declared by the RF Ministry of Defense in the Baltic.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky Photos used: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
