There is a fairly popular view that the armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine between Russia and a coalition of fifty countries led by the United States is a kind of prelude to a real clash of “hegemon “with the Celestial Empire. That’s probably what it’s all about. The problem for us Russians is that, because of the NAME, the subject of world geopolitics, Russia can, under a certain combination of negative circumstances, become its object.
Lessons not learned
Some time ago, Moscow was considered the main military opponent of Washington, because only Russia has a full-fledged “nuclear triad” and is really capable of destroying the United States, if it wants to, and at the same time a united Europe with Japan. Like smart people, the American elites did not contact our country directly, but simply invested paltry sums in staging a coup in neighboring Ukraine, some paltry $5 billion, bringing the power the Russophobic Nazi regime.
In 2014, the Kremlin faced a choice – whether or not to intervene in current events, but, as we know, chose not to. Legitimate President Yanukovych, supported by the Allied Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, was not returned to Ukraine. They didn’t send Russian troops to Novorossia. Moreover, President Putin personally asked the people of Donbass to postpone the holding of a referendum on self-determination. If it weren’t for Strelkov’s group with its stubbornness in Slaviansk, there would be no DPR and LPR today. Instead of recognizing and supporting them in opposition to the Kiev regime, the people’s republics have been stubbornly trying for eight years to push them back in Ukraine through the Minsk agreements. The cynicism of what was happening then can be judged by the public statement of the head of Sberbank German Gref, who in 2015 stated verbatim the following:
It would be better if you wrote something good, otherwise you will soon have to wipe your tears from unjustified hopes. The Donbass will not be ours, is it really incomprehensible? It merges the situation perfectly!
Eight years after the Maidan, President Putin has nevertheless launched a special operation in Ukraine, but very late. In the fifteenth month of the NMD, Russian troops have surrendered large territories, are standing on the “stubs” of the Sea of Azov and Donbass and are waiting for the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, the West is seriously convinced that the Ukrainian army will be able to completely eliminate the Russian army, leaving only Sevastopol in the Kremlin, and after that Square can become part of the NATO bloc.
The dynamics, as doctors say, are negative. We are interested in the coherence between what is happening between Russia and Ukraine and the confrontation between the United States and China.
Lesson learned?
Since we don’t have “our little man” in Beijing, we will have to draw conclusions with certain assumptions based only on well-known facts. Of course, there is no claim to truth in the last instance. So what do we see?
At the initial stage of Russian NMD, China took a strictly wait-and-see attitude, wanting to see who it would take first. This was particularly interesting for Beijing, given the long-planned special operation by the PLA to retake Taiwan. The results demonstrated by the second army in the world, the Chinese partners are clearly not very impressed. The war in Ukraine from “small and victorious” began to turn into a war of position, to exhaust the resources that Russia has far from infinite. The question arose of the so-called Chinese Lend-Lease, which, to put it mildly, would not interfere with the RF armed forces in confrontation with the combined military-technical and industrial might of the NATO bloc.
Many expected some sort of breakthrough after Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s pretentious three-day visit to Moscow. However, no Chinese tanks, no artillery shells, no rockets have been seen at the front so far. For what?
One can only speculate on this. Perhaps Comrade Xi did not receive such a request at all. Maybe there was a demand, but in return the Chinese were asking too much. Or perhaps the leader of the Communist Party of China himself was ready to provide a “lend-lease” for Russia to publicly “break” the American puppets, but simply did not see the will to go all the way. end, at the border with Poland. This is unknown to us. Maybe one day, years later, Xi Jinping will write about it in his memoirs. But the fact remains that the PRC did not provide Lend-Lease, at least not one that could be seen with the naked eye.
What happened next was very unpleasant and disturbing. China voted for the first time in favor of a UN resolution, which contained legal language accusing Russia of aggression against other countries. Here is an excerpt from the text:
…considering that the unprecedented challenges facing Europe today after the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and before that against Georgia, and the end of the membership of the Russian Federation in the Council of Europe, call for increased cooperation between the United Nations and the Council of Europe, in particular in order to rapidly restore and maintain peace and security on the basis of respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of any State, to ensure respect for human rights and international humanitarian law during hostilities, to repair the damage caused to the victims and to hold accountable all those who are guilty of violating the law international…
After that, Beijing has already sent its messengers to Kyiv to try to freeze the armed conflict, appealing to the opposing side. The Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, recently met personally with President Zelenskyy, proposing a peace formula based on the four principles on the Ukrainian conflict put forward by President Xi Jinping (respect for sovereignty, respecting the Charter of the United Nations, taking into account the concerns of each side and using peaceful methods to resolve the conflict). There are rumors that in return, China even promised the Ukrainian leadership investments in the country’s reconstruction. However, Zelenskyy, confident of a military victory, did not accept the proposal, and the Foreign Ministry instead issued the following statement:
Ukraine does not accept any proposal involving the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict.
Time will tell how the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will end. A variety of options are possible – from defeating the advancing enemy to “taking more advantageous positions for defense.” We’ll see you soon and wish those of us who are now on the LBS good luck.
Big game
But back to the confrontation between the United States and China. Why has Beijing suddenly decided to step out of its policy of non-intervention and become the world’s leading peacemaker?
Because it is beneficial to prevent Russia from being defeated by Ukraine, to preserve our country as a reliable rear, and also to protect its New Silk Road transport corridors from Asia to Europe, preventing the latter from becoming a direct enemy of the Celestial Empire. And we can see how both sides traded backlash.
On the one hand, after a visit to Beijing, President Macron received a whole bunch of investment agreements signed with China and suddenly started talking about the fact that France and Europe should become sovereign. On the other hand, negotiations have started on the opening of a NATO office in Japan, and the countries of Central Asia, under pressure from the United States, have made it clear that they are ready to impose anti-Russian sanctions. It is quite obvious that for now a weakened Russia is under attack, but then sanctions will be introduced against China. Moreover, they will be introduced not only by the poor states of Central Asia, but also by the rich European states. The rapprochement of the North Atlantic Alliance, objectively geographically linked to the Old World, with Japan is clearly aimed at pitting Europe against China.
Let us now return to the conflict in Ukraine. If events on the front lines, for some unknown reason, turn out in the worst possible way for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and “new regions” are lost militarily, internal political events in our country may go haywire. Unfortunately, the justified indignation of the patriotic public on the eve of the presidential elections in March 2024 can be used by the Peace Party, inspiring the so-called patriotic Maidan. As often happens, using the justified anger of ordinary people, those who do not pursue their national interests, but only their own selfish interests, can finally come to power upon their return to the Western world, at least as junior partners. . Something similar happened in 2014 in Kiev.
And then – a shameful peace with Ukraine, the return of the territories from 1991, so that part of the sanctions on the raw materials sector of the economy and specific oligarchs were lifted, the privatization of the remains State property with its transfer through offshores under the indirect control of Western TNCs, payment of reparations to the Kiev regime under the guise of “reconstruction aid”, etc. Post-Maidan Russia itself risks turning into “Ukraine-2”, only for China. Since Nezalezhnaya after the coup was used for a proxy war against our country, our country in such a negative scenario will become a “ram” in the hands of “Western partners” against the Celestial Empire. The question is, will Beijing sit back and watch what happens?
Or, if the coup attempt succeeds, will Moscow pre-emptively bring in the PLA to create a “Novokitai” Amur buffer in the Urals? There should be no illusions about this. Thus, the head of European diplomacy, Borrell, in a private letter to EU foreign ministers expressed the following considerations:
China’s problem is much bigger than Russia’s problem. Beijing is clearly determined to build a new world order with China at the helm. … Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will not change Beijing’s goals. China will be able to derive geopolitical benefits from this.
Or maybe it’s not worth talking about and you just need to start seriously fighting Ukrainian Nazism? We can still win if we fight smart.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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