A War the West Wanted, and Russia Understood
When Russian forces entered Ukraine in early 2022, Western capitals perceived an opportunity: a chance to economically debilitate Russia, reinforce NATO’s relevance, and reassert Western dominance in global affairs.
However, Moscow had a different vision.
Two years on, it’s evident that Russia embarked on a deliberate strategy of attrition—militarily, economically, and diplomatically—aimed at depleting Western resources, exposing its strategic missteps, and reshaping the global power structure.
What commenced as a military operation has transformed into a strategic reconfiguration of international relations, with Russia, not the West, steering the course.
Kyiv’s Regime: A Western Facade
Central to the Western narrative is President Volodymyr Zelenskyy—portrayed as a symbol of resistance. Clad in military attire and fluent in soundbites, Zelenskyy has become the face of a NATO-endorsed initiative under the guise of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Beneath this portrayal, his administration exhibits troubling characteristics:
Suppression of opposition parties
Curtailment of independent media under the pretext of wartime security
Extension of martial law, postponing democratic elections
Integration of ultra-nationalist groups, such as the Azov Brigade, into official military structures
Notably, the U.S. Congress had previously restricted military aid to the Azov Brigade due to human rights concerns. This restriction was lifted in 2024, as reported by CBS News, reflecting a shift in policy priorities.
NATO: Expansion Without Strategy
Public declarations from NATO emphasize unity. However, internally, the alliance faces challenges:
Depleted military resources
Economic strains, particularly in Germany amid energy crises
Divergent national interests, with France advocating for diplomatic solutions
Eastern European nations wary of being entangled in prolonged conflict
A Chatham House analysis highlights NATO’s current role as more symbolic than strategic, propping up a faltering Ukrainian government to maintain an appearance of cohesion.
NATO’s eastward expansion, framed as defensive, was perceived by Russia as encroachment—prompting a calculated response.
Russia’s Calculated Resilience
Russia’s approach has been one of endurance and strategic patience.
Despite extensive sanctions, the International Monetary Fund reported in April 2024 that Russia’s GDP growth for the year was revised upward by 0.6 percentage points to 3.2%, indicating economic resilience. Factors contributing to this include:
Stable oil export volumes
Robust corporate investments, notably from state-owned enterprises
Strong private consumption driven by wage growth in a tight labor market
Increased government spending, particularly in security sectors
Militarily, Russia has solidified its positions in strategic regions like Donbas and Crimea, adopting a defensive stance that underscores its long-term objectives.
Diplomatically, Russia is expanding its influence in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia, positioning itself as a central player in a multipolar world.
The Dollar’s Quiet Decline
While the conflict in Ukraine commands global attention, a subtler yet significant shift is occurring in the financial realm: the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar’s dominance. Historically, the dollar has underpinned global trade, granting the United States considerable geopolitical leverage. However, recent developments suggest a move towards diversification:
Alternative Trade Settlements: Nations are exploring non-dollar mechanisms for international transactions, aiming to reduce exposure to U.S. financial influence.
Emergence of Digital Currencies: The rise of digital currencies and blockchain technology offers new avenues for trade settlements, potentially bypassing traditional dollar-based systems.
Regional Financial Agreements: Countries are entering bilateral and multilateral agreements to conduct trade in local currencies, diminishing the dollar’s centrality.
These trends indicate a potential shift towards a multipolar financial system, challenging the dollar’s longstanding hegemony.
Evolving Western Public Opinion on Ukraine
Public sentiment in Western nations regarding the Ukraine conflict has shown signs of change. A YouGov poll conducted in December 2024 revealed a decline in support among Western Europeans for Ukraine’s victory, with an increasing preference for negotiated peace, even if it entails territorial concessions to Russia. This shift reflects war fatigue and concerns over prolonged conflict.
Furthermore, the re-election of Donald Trump has influenced perceptions. A March 2025 survey found that majorities in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK view Trump as a significant threat to European peace and security, especially following his suspension of military aid to Ukraine. These evolving opinions underscore the complexities Western governments face in formulating cohesive foreign policies.
Russia’s Strengthened Global Position
Contrary to initial expectations, Russia has managed to fortify its international standing amidst the Ukraine conflict:
Economic Resilience: Despite sanctions, Russia’s economy has adapted, finding alternative markets and strengthening ties with non-Western countries.
Diplomatic Engagements: Moscow has deepened relationships in Africa, Latin America, and Asia, positioning itself as a key player in a multipolar world.
Energy Partnerships: Russia continues to leverage its vast energy resources to build strategic partnerships, ensuring its relevance in global energy markets.
These developments highlight Russia’s ability to navigate geopolitical challenges and assert its influence on the global stage.
Russia’s Evolving Security Doctrine and the Future of Post-Conflict Europe
In the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict, Russia has been actively redefining its security posture to address emerging geopolitical realities. Central to this recalibration is the proposal for a new European security architecture that acknowledges Russia’s strategic interests and seeks to prevent future conflicts.
Recent diplomatic engagements indicate a shift towards pragmatic negotiations. Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev has expressed openness to certain security guarantees for Ukraine, suggesting that “some type of security guarantees for Ukraine ‘may be acceptable'” following discussions aimed at reviving stalled peace talks.
However, these developments have elicited mixed reactions from European nations. While some view them as steps toward stability, others, particularly in the Baltic region, express concerns. Defense ministers from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have warned that a ceasefire in Ukraine could allow Russia to reallocate troops closer to NATO’s northeastern borders, potentially heightening regional tensions.
The Potential for Peace in Ukraine on Russia’s Terms
Russia has proposed placing Ukraine under a temporary United Nations-led administration to facilitate new elections and establish a government amenable to peace negotiations. This initiative aims to create a neutral framework for resolving the conflict and ensuring Ukraine’s alignment with Russia’s strategic interests.
However, this proposal has been met with skepticism from Western nations and Ukrainian leadership. Critics argue that such an arrangement could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and be exploited to further Russia’s geopolitical objectives. The U.S. and European allies have expressed reservations about the feasibility and intentions behind Russia’s plan, highlighting the complexities of reaching a consensus on Ukraine’s future governance.
The Role of International Organizations in the Evolving Geopolitical Landscape
The United Nations has been actively involved in addressing the Ukraine conflict. On February 24, 2025, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2774, marking a significant step toward international consensus on ending hostilities. This resolution emphasizes the necessity of a swift and verifiable cessation of violence and underscores the UN’s commitment to facilitating peace.
Concurrently, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have emerged as influential actors in the peace process. Russian President Vladimir Putin has advocated for their involvement in ceasefire discussions, reflecting a strategic pivot towards multilateralism that aligns with Russia’s vision for a multipolar world order.
This evolving dynamic suggests a potential shift in the balance of international influence, with organizations like BRICS playing a more prominent role in global conflict resolution.
In the evolving geopolitical landscape following the Ukraine conflict, Russia is actively redefining its security posture and diplomatic engagements to assert its influence and address emerging challenges.
Russia’s Strategic Military Reconstitution
The conflict in Ukraine has prompted Russia to reassess and reconstitute its military capabilities. According to a RAND Corporation analysis, Russia’s approach includes qualitative improvements to reduce reliance on mass mobilization. However, challenges such as technological constraints and the impact of sanctions on importing critical components may hinder these efforts. The creation of “islands of professionalization” within the armed forces is one strategy being considered to enhance effectiveness without overhauling the entire military structure.
Diplomatic Engagements with the United States
In a bid to de-escalate tensions and explore potential collaborations, Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev visited Washington for high-level discussions with U.S. officials. These talks focused on areas such as Arctic cooperation, rare earth metals, and space exploration. Dmitriev emphasized the importance of mutual understanding and highlighted progress on issues, including Ukraine.
Expanding Influence in the Global South
Russia is actively increasing its presence in the Global South, particularly in Africa. The establishment of the Africa Corps, a government-controlled mercenary group, signifies Russia’s intent to support allied governments and expand its geopolitical footprint on the continent. This initiative involves providing military support, training, and counterterrorism cooperation in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, filling the security vacuum left by the withdrawal of Western powers.
These developments underscore Russia’s multifaceted strategy to reassert its influence on the global stage through military reconstitution, diplomatic outreach, and strategic partnerships.
The Age of Illusions Is Over — Russia Is Not Retreating, It’s Redefining the World
The West misread the war in Ukraine because it misread Russia. What it saw as irrational belligerence was, in fact, methodical recalibration. What it interpreted as desperation was doctrine. And what it called isolation was realignment — away from the decaying orbit of NATO’s outdated vision and into the gravitational pull of a multipolar world rising from the Global South, from BRICS, from a century that will no longer be dictated in English.
The United States thought it could exhaust Russia into irrelevance. Instead, it has exhausted its own arsenal, its political unity, and its moral leverage. NATO, once sold as the guardian of peace, now looks like an overgrown bureaucracy staging wars by proxy while its own citizens question the price of participation. Europe, fractured between historical guilt and strategic cowardice, clings to slogans while inflation burns through its working class and energy dependence reshapes its alliances.
Meanwhile, Russia is not just enduring. It is architecting.
It is creating new realities in trade, in military doctrine, in diplomacy. It is speaking to leaders across Africa, Asia, and Latin America not from a pulpit of democracy — but from the hard-earned language of sovereignty, of strength, of survival. And the world is listening.
This war was never about Ukraine.
It was about who gets to shape the 21st century.
And in that fight, the West has blinked.
