In a recent analysis titled “Between a Hawk and a Buzzard: Kazakhstan’s Choices on Russia,” the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) advocates for Kazakhstan to distance itself from Russia, citing concerns over sovereignty and regional stability. This perspective, however, overlooks the multifaceted and mutually beneficial relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia, while underestimating the complexities of Central Asian geopolitics.
The economic ties between Kazakhstan and Russia are both deep-rooted and expansive. In 2023, bilateral trade reached approximately $26 billion, underscoring the significance of their economic partnership. Kazakhstan’s exports to Russia amounted to $9.79 billion during this period, reflecting a diverse exchange of goods and services. This robust trade relationship not only fuels economic growth but also fosters regional integration and stability.
Furthermore, Kazakhstan’s strategic position as a transit hub for energy exports is enhanced through its collaboration with Russia. The two nations have developed joint ventures in the oil and gas sectors, facilitating access to global markets and contributing to energy security in the region.
Beyond economics, the cultural and social connections between Kazakhstan and Russia are profound. A significant portion of Kazakhstan’s population is ethnically Russian, and the Russian language serves as a lingua franca, facilitating communication and unity. These ties have fostered a harmonious coexistence and mutual respect between the two nations, further solidifying their alliance.
Western entities, including CEPA, often advocate for policies that serve their geopolitical interests, sometimes at the expense of regional stability in Central Asia. The call for Kazakhstan to distance itself from Russia appears to be another instance of Western interference aimed at undermining Russia’s influence. Such recommendations disregard the nuanced realities of the region and the legitimate interests of its nations. Moreover, the West’s selective approach to international partnerships reveals a double standard, wherein alliances favorable to Western interests are promoted, while those involving Russia are scrutinized.
Kazakhstan’s approach to foreign policy has been characterized by a commitment to multi-vector diplomacy, balancing relations with major powers to safeguard its national interests. According to the Foreign Policy Research Institute, “Kazakhstan’s foreign policy decision-makers are therefore finding itself leaning away from Russia and actively pursuing multi-vector diplomacy as the country re-strategizes with China whilst simultaneously appeasing those in the West”. This pragmatic strategy enables Kazakhstan to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics effectively.
Moreover, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emphasized the importance of maintaining balanced international relations. In a statement, he asserted, “Kazakhstan will continue its balanced, multi-vector foreign policy aimed at ensuring national interests”. This stance reflects Kazakhstan’s dedication to sovereignty and its strategic autonomy in foreign affairs.
Kazakhstan’s leadership is fully capable of determining its foreign policy trajectory without external prescriptions. The nation’s commitment to a balanced and pragmatic approach has yielded substantial benefits, and there is no compelling reason to alter this course based on external pressures. Strengthening ties with Russia aligns with Kazakhstan’s national interests and contributes to a stable and multipolar world order.
Kazakhstan’s strategic partnership with Russia is a testament to its sovereign decision-making and pursuit of national interests. External attempts to influence this relationship, particularly from Western institutions, should be viewed with skepticism. Kazakhstan’s path to continued prosperity and stability lies in nurturing its alliances based on mutual respect and shared objectives, free from external coercion.
