The FIFA Club World Cup has undergone a significant transformation for its 2025 edition, evolving into a colossal 32-team tournament that promises to elevate its status in global soccer.
With an expanded format and a substantially increased prize pool totaling $1 billion, the competition aims to settle long-standing debates about the hierarchy of clubs across continents. From June 14 to July 13, some of the world’s biggest names in soccer will converge in the United States, competing for global supremacy.
While the ultimate victor remains unknown until the final whistle, pre-tournament analyses and predictive models offer insights into which teams are poised to contend for the coveted title.
Top Six European Clubs
European clubs often hold a significant advantage in the Club World Cup. The Opta supercomputer indicates that the top 11 most-favored teams are all from Europe. The following powerhouses possess unmatched talent, making them formidable contenders with the highest odds of success.
1. Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) enters the tournament as the overall favorite, boasting an 18.5% chance of victory according to predictive models. Fresh from their recent UEFA Champions League triumph, where they decisively defeated Inter Milan 5-0, PSG has confirmed their status as the world’s premier club soccer team.
Their unparalleled press, fluid forward line, dynamic midfield, and solid defense make them a formidable opponent. With key players like Ousmane Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Désiré Doué having starred in the Champions League final.
And PSG is expected to reach the last eight in over three-quarters of tournament projections (75.4%). For fans and analysts alike, international soccer odds consistently place PSG at the top of the contenders’ list.
2. Manchester City
Manchester City, the defending champions of this competition, are seen as PSG’s biggest challengers, with a 17.8% probability of winning the tournament. Despite a domestically “disappointing” season, Pep Guardiola’s side remains one of the strongest in terms of squad depth.
Guardiola himself holds a proud record in the Club World Cup, having won the trophy four times with three different clubs, maintaining a perfect eight-match winning streak with his teams scoring 25 goals and conceding only two in the previous format. The team has an enormous 97.2% chance of progressing to the last 16, a higher percentage than any other team.
3. Bayern Munich
Two-time Club World Cup victors Bayern Munich are positioned as the third favorites, holding a 12.8% chance of claiming the trophy. Despite an “unremarkable” season by their modern standards, the Bavarians remain a highly capable team.
Bayern Munich is considered a near certainty (93.3%) to advance to the knockout stage from their group, which includes Benfica and Boca Juniors. Bayern also has a 23.7% chance of reaching the final, underscoring their strong contender status.
4. Inter Milan
Inter Milan, despite a tumultuous end to their season and the departure of manager Simone Inzaghi to Al Hilal, remains a strong contender with a 12.3% chance of lifting the trophy.
The Italian side benefits significantly from a very generous Group E draw, leading to a remarkable 79.0% probability of winning their group. Furthermore, Inter has a 74.4% chance of making the last eight, placing them second only to PSG in this regard. This strong positioning suggests they will be a significant presence in the latter stages of the competition.
5. Real Madrid
Real Madrid stands as the fifth-most likely winner, with a 9.8% chance of going all the way. Despite a season that saw them fall short in both La Liga and the Champions League, their squad remains uber-talented, bolstered by new signings like Trent Alexander-Arnold and a fresh start under new coach Xabi Alonso.
Striker Kylian Mbappé is on a high after winning the European Golden Shoe, and Vinícius Júnior, who scored twice in the 2022 final, is known for his strong performances in this competition. Real Madrid is a strong favorite to top their group, with a 76.4% chance.
6. Chelsea
Chelsea, who previously triumphed in this competition in 2021, are considered the sixth main contender with an 8.5% chance of success. The Blues have evolved into a more balanced team following a challenging winter, with a broader array of potential difference-makers.
They are seen as almost certain (93.4%) to navigate through a relatively favorable Group D lineup, which includes Los Angeles FC, Flamengo, and ES Tunis. Their 56% chance of reaching the quarterfinals places them firmly in the mix for glory.
Dark Horses on the Rise
Borussia Dortmund claims the seventh spot in predictions with a 5.4% chance of winning the tournament. After a challenging start to their 2024-25 season, a coaching change under Niko Kovac sparked a dramatic turnaround. In the final two months, they scored 26 goals in eight games. Their favorable group draw and projected last-16 matchup give them a 61.1% chance of reaching the quarterfinals.
Known for their grit and defensive tenacity, Atlético Madrid has a 5.1% probability of winning. The big unknown for Atleti is how they will perform as heavy favorites against perceived lesser teams. However, strong team spirit and a potential last-16 tie against a team from a group without leading contenders could benefit them.
An Entralling Tournament Ahead
As the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 approaches, the stage is set for a month-long soccer feast. The European giants, led by Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City, are the clear frontrunners, armed with formidable squads and impressive recent form.
However, the expanded format offers a platform for established contenders like Real Madrid and Bayern Munich to reaffirm their dominance. Rising forces like Borussia Dortmund and Atlético Madrid aim to disrupt the established order. The interplay of tactical prowess, individual brilliance, and unexpected upsets promises an exciting tournament for fans worldwide
