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Hezbollah Now Most Prominent Threat to the US

Manish Rai
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Hezbollah Now Most Prominent Threat to the US

After the killing of Major General Qassem Suleimani, the loudest voice (After Ayatollah Khamenei) threatening the United States came from Hezbollah. Secretary-General of Hezbollah Sheik Hassan Nasrallah in his public speech said the US military in the Middle East would pay the price for the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, warning that American soldiers and officers would return home in coffins.

Nasrallah even said responding to the killing was not only Iran’s responsibility but the responsibility of its allies too. It shows that Hezbollah will take its own revenge as well.

Founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 1982, Lebanese group Hezbollah is a critical part of an Iranian so, called Axis of Resistance. Some analysts even believe that it’s an extension of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and they take direct orders from Tehran.

Taking revenge for Suleimani killing is not about pleasing Iran for them its personal loss too. As the primary architect of Iran’s strategic efforts to promote its expansion and undermine U.S. influence, Suleimani was particularly beloved by Hezbollah. One thing is also evident that Hezbollah doesn’t make empty threats. It has killed the highest number of Americans after Al-Qaeda. In October 1983, Hezbollah carried out suicide bombing killing 241 US servicemen that destroyed U.S. Marine headquarters in Beirut. That was the biggest terrorist attack on the US before 9/11.

If you see the track record of Hezbollah, they have always retaliated the killings of its leaders and senior cadres. In 1992 Sheikh Abbas Musawi, the then secretary-general of Hezbollah was assassinated by Israelis in an airstrike. Musawi was a revered figure among Hezbollah’s cadres and his death was a major blow to the organization’s morale.

Initially, it appeared that Israel had scored a major achievement in dispatching its Lebanese enemy. But a month after Musawi’s assassination, however, a vehicle-borne suicide bomber attacked the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people and wounding more than 200. The message was loud and clear that revenge will be taken and they have the capability to attack Israeli interests around the world. After all, in 1992, the then relatively small Hezbollah was able to exact vengeance against Israel for Musawi’s death in South America, far from the Middle East. So now Hezbollah is much stronger it will definitely attack the United States forces and interests spread across the Middle East.

Hezbollah has been preparing for this day for decades, building up the military, terrorist, and cyber capabilities in Lebanon and the Middle East in order to strike back at the United States and anyone else who might threaten Iran.

Iranian missile attack on two Iraqi bases that host U.S. forces were Tehran’s initial, symbolic, and overt response to Suleimani’s death. The full response will unfold in the coming months and years and will definitely feature Hezbollah in a starring role. Iran can’t afford a full-fledge conventional conflict with the United States as it’s bound to lose that. So the best way to bleed the US is through its most potent proxy i.e. Hezbollah as an asymmetric attack by proxy will be covert and can always be denied.

The United States has troops currently staged throughout the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, including in Iraq, Syria, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. With so many targets to choose from Hezbollah can attack at a place of its choice. Especially in Iraq America still has 5,000 troops and Hezbollah has its Unit 3800, which spearheaded arming and training the Shiite militias that may soon launch a bloody insurgency against American forces.

To counter this potential threat to the security of US forces and interest in the region a comprehensive hybrid strategy is required which includes both defensive and offensive measures.

Defensively US should ensure greater security cover for all its bases in the region even host countries should be requested to provide greater security to US embassies and consulates. Inoffensive strategy focus should be on eroding the military capabilities of Hezbollah by attacking its arms shipment, arms depot, senior operatives.

In addition to this military pressure should be built up in the core territory of Hezbollah which is South Lebanon. So that Hezbollah gets busy defending itself rather than attacking the US. American policymakers should not differentiate between Iran and Hezbollah as they are one entity. The joint strategy should be formulated to curtain Iran and Hezbollah simultaneously.

How Social Media is becoming anti-social?

Hamayun Khan
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How Social Media is becoming anti-social?

Sprint in technological development and transformation of the world into a digitalized hub engenders the need to adapt to the fresh innovations. In today’s date, social media is considered as an advantageous technological source for long a distance communication easing the complex activities of people who have busy working schedules and lacks time to be physically involved in an interaction, therefore social media has turned to be a ubiquitous tool with an inevitable usage, on the other hand, social media has cons in terms of widening gaps among people due to the extreme human attachment and obsession with social media.

An article published by TechAddiction highlights that when a person is very much obsessed with social media and continuously keep updating it, there is a possibility of losing connection with the actual world around, besides, all the time cannot be spent making virtual relationships because a culture that is obsessed with updating Facebook statuses, posting tweets, playing games and messaging social media friends can cause us to become anti-social beings. (Mandys n.d.)

Life in the 21st century is connected more to the technological means

since the need for technology is enormously felt in every aspect of life, therefore people should understand the imperatives of technology, of which Social Media is an integral part plays a vital role in our day to day activities. Social media generates an interception to our real-life interactions with the people present close to us, while virtually getting us connected to those away from us.

“What used to be thought of as narcissistic, vain, and self-centered behavior is now the guiding norm of society,” says Elias Aboujaoude, M.D., clinical professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Stanford University and author of Virtually you: The Dangerous Powers of the E-Personality. “We are living in an era where humans are putting forth these edited and inflated versions of their lives, this ‘idealized self,’ and then they are, quite literally, falling in love with themselves.”

Due to the extreme social media addiction, we are so busy that we forget to ask ourselves a few questions:

  • Do I talk to the one sitting next to us in a metro?
  • Do I accurately greet the shopkeeper; we purchase goods from?
  • Do I get refreshed, take a bath, or exercise when waking up in the morning?

People nowadays tend to impress others more than themselves, therefore living in the 21st century shapes us being self-obsessed looking for others’ approvals and appreciations more than being patted by own selves and satisfied within our souls. “people crave social affirmation,” says Erin Vogel, Ph.D., a post-doctoral psychiatry fellow at the University of California, San Francisco. She further claims “when everyone around you has a strong social media presence, even if it is fake, it can create major internal anxiety,”

Additionally, social media engenders additional problems such as blackmailing, hacking people’s accounts, or annoying people with abusive messages. an article published on the Debate Org website reveals that Every 7 seconds someone in the world is cyberbullied and most cyberbullying is caused by mid-teens aged 14-17. Young people can cyberbully other youngsters through abusive texts and emails, Harmful messages, Images or videos, detrimental online gossip, And chat. this cyberbullying can cause shame, Guilt, Fear, Loneliness, And depression. Bad videos and gossip can be spread fast through social media and is difficult to delete. 1 in 5 children has experienced cyberbullying however some children do not tell an adult. (Debate Org n.d.)

“When people are constantly spending more and more time on social media, they are disconnecting from real life and are feeling less connected with themselves,” says Shannon Poppito, Ph.D., a clinical psychologist on the medical staff at Baylor University Medical Center at Dallas.  He further adds “It’s not the real-life multi-dimensional experience of connecting and feeling a sense of belonging.” “As you disconnect more and more from life, you’re going to feel more depressed and directionless,” Dr. Poppito said. “Being involved in social comparison impacts your self-esteem and self-worth.”

By continuously engaging in other people’s lives through social channels, we begin to compare our “behind the scenes” with their “highlight reels” — observing merely filtered glimpses of their world and not the entire actual footage. Therefore, when we compare every aspect of our life, from relationships to body image, we are likely to feel more depressed.

Dr. Poppito suggests limiting the quantity and quality of time spent on social media, as well as trying to go cold turkey for a moment. significantly, Dr. Poppito also recommends investing the time to stay linked with the ‘real world’ and make time for face-to-face interaction with friends and family.

Real-life is dominated by the virtual, people are more concerned about getting likes, comments, and notifications than shaking hands with friends, appreciations, and spending time with their loved ones, therefore it is suggested that we should dedicate most of our life to real and face-to-face interactions, and limit the use of social media up to the extent of fulfilling the required necessities.

Damascus Has All Reasons to Smile

Manish Rai
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Damascus Has All Reasons to Smile

Turkey has launched its operation Peace Spring in Northern Syria aiming to uproot Kurdish forces. As the United States has already abandoned its Kurdish allies which helped them to finish ISIS caliphate and pulling out all the American troops from Syria to facilitate the Turkish operation. Turkey has come very heavily on Kurdish forces by launching airstrikes, heavy artillery bombardment and ground incursion by Turkish troops and allied militias. The scale of the Turkish attack surprised many analysts tracking the Syrian conflict.

Turkey attacks a covered area of 300km length and 50km depth in which almost all major cities and towns under Kurdish control are hit. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) dominated by Kurdish YPG militia responded to Turkey’s military action with artillery attacks and rockets fired into Turkish territory. Moreover, fierce clashes are taking place in Syrian border villages between advancing Turkish forces and Kurdish fighters. What consequences of this military confrontation Kurds and Turkey have to face that only time can tell. But one thing is certain that whatever is the outcome of this confrontation there will be only one beneficiary under all circumstances and that will be Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. Let’s have a look at how President Assad will benefit under any situation.

First of all, the most important development is that the United States is withdrawing all its troops from Northern Syria. It’s highly possible that the US will have no ground presence in Syria. This complete US pull-out will remove Russia’s which is the main backer of the Syrian government only military equal from the contest to shape Syria’s future. Moreover, another important ally of Dr. Assad that is Iran going forward doesn’t have to worry about US monitoring its activity and passing on critical information to Israel. Iran can now feel more confident to move its men and material from Iraqi to the Lebanese border.

The Kurds feared that they will lose the autonomy they gained from Damascus during Syria’s civil war, now in its ninth year, and could see Turkey seize much of the territory where the Kurdish population is concentrated. This danger now could prompt the Kurds to negotiate with Assad’s government for some form of protection. Weaken by Turkish attacks Kurds won’t be able to negotiate from a position of strength and Assad can pressurize them to accept many conditions which Kurds rejected outright before.

Another prominent possibility is that Assad forces, backed by Russia, could take advantage of the situation and advance from the south into the Kurdish region. President Assad has vowed to retake every inch of territory from the Kurds and the remaining armed opposition in Syria’s northwest. This will force the Kurds to fight on two fronts at the same time something they are unlikely to survive. Ideally, this is the right time to launch any military campaign against Kurds.

Turkey has stated that one of its goals is to settle Syrian refugees living in Turkish territory in the areas liberated from Syrian Kurdish forces.  As it’s a known fact that the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey have become a liability for Erdogan, who is now thinking of forcing them back to Syria. If such resettlement takes place, it will lead to a permanent change of Syrian demographics which favors Syrian President Assad’s sectarian ambitions. It will change the ethnic composition of the Kurdish areas and the sectarian composition of many predominantly Sunni Arab towns. So, going forward in future no Kurdish separatist movement can take root in these areas as Kurds will be in minority there.

Syria’s northwest corner, including the Idlib region, is the last major chunk of territory still in the opposition hands after more than eight years of war. That is mainly because of Turkish support to these residual opposition groups. Turkey has several observation posts in Idlib province hence the Syrian government is reluctant to launch a full-fledge ground incursion. But if Turkey gets entangled with Kurds then Turkey has to shift its attention from Idlib to campaign against Kurds. As even Kurds lose the territory to Turks, they can still harass them through the use of guerrilla tactics like hit-and-runs attacks, mines, roadside bombs or perhaps anti-tank missiles in their possession. As a result of this Turks, attention from Idlib will be diverted and this will directly help the Syrian government which is eager to launch ground incursion in this last rebel stronghold.

The next few weeks and months will determine whether Rojava will survive or not. But at this point in time, Damascus has all the reasons to smile. As it’s very much clear that Dr. Bashar Al Asaad will benefit from any possible outcome of this Turkish operation. In the Syrian conflict, President Assad always played his cards well and emerged as the victor. However, this time it is different. He is winning without fighting or even putting any effort. His enemies are going to hand him victory.

How Russia set to reclaim its lost pride under Putin

Shaik Amer Arafath
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How Russia set to reclaim its lost pride under Putin

The United States of America is undoubtedly the colossal superpower of the World since the disintegration of the then Soviet Union in 1991. But the role of the US is gradually diminishing in World politics generally after the 2008 financial crisis and precisely after Trump’s victory in 2016. Russia is thriving its prominent leverage in the geopolitics of the world by coordinating with almost every country and its dreams to reclaim its lost dignity.

US-Russian Relationship

The Russia-US conflict once again went into vitriolic circumstances post-cold war, when the latter led NATO bombed in Yugoslavia (Now Serbia & Montenegro) in 1999 amid the Kosovo war. The relationship further deteriorated when the US imposed huge economic sanctions on Russia after it annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 because of the strategic warm port – The Sevastopol.

Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war was another issue that irked the US as it was fighting with the deadly ISIS in the historical country. The ties went worse when Guccifer 2.0, DC leaks and Wiki Leaks confirmed that Russia intervened in the US Presidential elections.

Russian Vengeance

Donald Trump is an ardent proponent of anti-globalization theory and his rise to Presidential candidate was based on slogans like ‘Make America great again’ and ‘America first’ that threaten to pull out the US from various international agreements like Trans-Pacific Partnership, NATO, etc.

Russia speculated that the victory of Trump could help them to re-emerge back as a superpower because of the vacuum created by Trump’s outdated assumptions at the global level. Hence, Russia used it’s advance state-of-art cyber warfare team backed by its military intelligence to meddle into the US Presidential elections.
Trump’s Loss

Donald Trump severed US relationships with China and paved the way for a trade war that is going to impact the world economy which is already on a slow run. He imposed many tariffs on products from neighboring countries like Mexico and Canada. Additionally, he withdrew from the historic Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 which could have a huge impact on the environment in the coming decades.

He pulled the US from Iran nuclear deal and imposed economic sanctions on Tehran, recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital which could have negative effects in the Middle East region. The recent mistake was that he withdrew US forces from Syria which kept Kurds in limbo and invited an air attack from Turkey. Perceiving his blunders, the US House of Representatives initiated an impeachment request in September 2019.

Putin’s Gain

Russia under Putin is trying to get an impact on global politics. It is encompassing to solve the economic problems in Latin American countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela besides making its strategic presence in the region by participating in peace-time joint military operations. Russia sent out a strong message to the US after it gave asylum to whistleblower Edward Snowden in 2013. It became a key player in geopolitics of the Middle East after the region lost its trust and respect for the US which is known for its hypocrisy and backstabbing.

Also, Putin didn’t support America’s invasion of Iraq in 2003. The regime of Assad in Syria was defended because of the Russian presence. Putin also invited Erdogan to have talks on Ankara’s aggression in northern Syria on 22nd October in Sochi.

Russia entered into the Middle East via Syria in 2015 to fight against terrorism and in support of Assad but within a span of 4 years, it loomed as a power broker in the region and sent a signal that if any country wants peace, then turn to Russia. Russia also supported India’s entry into NSG and it also endorses India’s bid to a permanent seat in UNSC. It shares a cordial relationship with China, the arch-rival of the US in the trade relationship.

Russia’s cyberwar is of par excellence as it destroyed Estonia economically. The sharp intelligence and diplomacy of a spy-turned-President Putin are making Russia back on a global track once again but it may take some more time to reclaim its pioneer position.

Tobacco Harm Reduction in Nigeria: From Awareness to Action

Melody Okereke
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Tobacco Harm Reduction in Nigeria: From Awareness to Action

Most countries all over the world have prohibited smoking in public places and the common advice is, “smoking is dangerous to your health… smokers are liable to die young.” However, researches indicate that the majority of deaths due to smoking result from respiratory diseases such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia.

Smoking Trends in Nigeria

The trend in current smoking prevalence in the general population in Nigeria is decreasing. In 2000, the overall prevalence was estimated to be around 7.5% and this decreased to 6% by 2015, with a projection to increase to 5% by 2025. Men’s smoking decreased from 13% to 11% between 2000 and 2015 and is projected to decrease further to 10% by 2025 according to WHO trend data.

Women’s Smoking Data

Women’s smoking prevalence during the same period remained low at 2% in 2000 to 1% in 2015 and is projected to reduce further to under 1% by 2025. In Nigeria, most cities including Lagos have outlawed smoking backed with legislation but poor and inadequate enforcement has been the pitfall. People still smoke in open places in all the nook and crannies of the country exposing the non-smokers and tender ones to secondhand smoke, which has also been linked with cancer of the lung and other ill-health effects.

Smoking Death Statistics

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the tobacco epidemic is one of the biggest public health threats, killing more than seven million people a year. There are at present one billion smokers globally, with nearly 80 percent of them living in low and middle-income countries, where the burden of tobacco-related illness is at its highest; sadly, Nigeria happens to be a major hotspot for this issue. Indeed, several studies have revealed that smoking tobacco is the most harmful way of using nicotine, with the tars and gasses in cigarette smoke being harmful to health, however, many people find it tough to stop smoking because they find it hard to go without nicotine (nicotine addiction).

Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR)

An in-depth study proposes that making lower-risk products available may support people to adjust from smoking, eventually helping them avoid the risk of smoking. This is known as “tobacco harm reduction”. Tobacco harm reduction (THR) is a public health strategy to lower the health risks to individuals and the wider society associated with using tobacco products. It is an example of the concept of harm reduction, a strategy for dealing with the abuse of other drugs.

Smoking Doesn’t Kill, Tar Does

People smoke for the nicotine but die from the tar. Nicotine can be gotten from a variety of products, which vary in their level of harm and addictiveness, from smoked tobacco (that is cigarettes) at the top end of the harm/addiction spectrum, to medicinal nicotine (that is nicotine replacement therapy products) at the bottom end. A harm reduction approach to tobacco control encourages those smokers that cannot, or not willing to stop smoking, to switch to using nicotine in a less harmful form, and preferably would result in them ultimately quitting nicotine use altogether.

Cancer Substance in Cigarettes

Products that can effectively and acceptably deliver nicotine without smoke have the potential to be less harmful than smoked tobacco. It is quite evident that the ultimate reason why people smoke is because of nicotine but unfortunately, they die from the cancerous substance in the cigarettes, tar.

Quitting is Quite Difficult

The rationale behind Tobacco Harm Reduction is that safer products that do not contain tar should be provided to smokers who cannot quit in order to prevent further unwanted deaths. Tobacco Harm Reduction measures have been focused on reducing or eliminating the use of combustible tobacco by switching to other nicotine products, such as pharmaceutical nicotine replacement therapies or electronic cigarettes, Switching to smokeless tobacco products such as Swedish snus and non-combustible tobacco products. Quitting all tobacco products absolutely reduces the risk the most. However, quitting is quite difficult, and even approved smoking cessation methods have a low success rate.

In addition, some smokers may be incapable or unwilling to achieve abstinence. Harm reduction is likely of substantial benefit to these smokers and public health. Providing reduced-harm alternatives to smokers is likely to result in a lower total population risk than pursuing abstinence-only policies. Irrespective of the perceived increase in the knowledge and awareness of the use of other safer products by smokers, the deaths caused by tobacco-related products still seem to be on the rise and it is increasingly alarming.

Surprisingly, this Tobacco Harm Reduction strategy is controversial: supporters of tobacco harm reduction assert that lessening the health risk for the individual user is worthwhile and manifests over the population in fewer tobacco-related illnesses and deaths whereas opponents have argued that some aspects of harm reduction interfere with cessation and abstinence and might increase initiation.

However, surveys carried from 2013 to 2015 in the UK and France suggest that on the contrary, the availability of safer alternatives to smoking is associated with decreased smoking prevalence and increased smoking cessation.

For instance, while 46 percent of deaths due to smoking result from respiratory diseases such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and pneumonia, there is no evidence that using snus (a smokeless tobacco product) increases the risk of these diseases. Nor does snus appear to increase the risk of other smoking-related diseases including heart disease, stroke and a range of cancers. In addition, the public health benefits of snus versus cigarettes are not only much lower, but the role of snus in both reducing initiation of smoking and increasing cessation of smoking is a key element in defeating the actual cause of tobacco-related ill-health caused by the cigarette.

Smoking has become less acceptable over recent years in a number of countries, and it is about time that Nigeria sees the light and dire importance of Tobacco Harm Reduction.

Regulatory policies based on discouraging people from starting to smoke and encouraging them to quit have been and continue to be effective.  While the proportion of adults who smoke is likely to continue declining, widely accepted estimates suggest that in 10 years’ time, as a result of global population growth, there will still be as many or more tobacco consumers globally as there are today.

In the context of tobacco and health, few governments currently support the development of reduced-risk tobacco products. Most governments simply argue for prevention and cessation.

It is important to work towards producing consumer-acceptable, potentially reduced-risk products because there could be further public health gains if tobacco regulatory policies included harm reduction, for the millions of adults globally who will continue to consume tobacco products.

The concept of harm reduction is increasingly being considered in relation to tobacco use and it is a key determinant of the Nigerian Health System. Tobacco harm reduction is all about finding practical ways to minimize the health impact of an inherently risky activity or behavior associated with tobacco use, without seeking to stop it entirely. It is time we shift our focus from awareness to action in Nigeria because it can and will only get better.

Muslim World has nothing to do with Kashmir

Hamayun Khan
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Muslim World has nothing to do with Kashmir

On September 28, 2019, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan addressed at the UN General Assembly (UNGA), calling on the International community to mediate the issue of Kashmir, Khan’s rigid speech at the UN was a warning for a nuclear war between the two nuclear-armed countries, he said: “We will fight till the end and when a nuclear-armed country defends itself the consequences of the war goes far beyond the border”.

Imran Khan Speech at the UNGA

PM Imran Khan has been continuously calling upon the global communities to help Pakistan resolve the Kashmir issue, while he has been failed to utter a voice for the oppressed Pashtuns within the country.

PM Khan’s consecutive warnings of possible radicalization and woeful repercussion emerging from the Jammu and Kashmir issue flared up Indian reactions.

Modi Government on Kashmir Issue

The Indian Foreign Minister on the occasion of the 100th day of Modi’s government said “Our position on (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) (PoK) has always been and will always be very clear. (PoK) is part of India and we expect one day that we will have the physical jurisdiction over it,” Modi’s government has maintained a firm stance that talks with Pakistan are possible only about Pakistan held Kashmir and not on Kashmir.

Singh expressed “I have clearly stated that if talks take place between India and Pakistan, then it will be on Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK),” retaining India’s rigid stand on Jammu and Kashmir.

Imran Seeks Attention of Islamic Nations

Pakistan has been a key political actor in the region, known for supporting militant groups in India and Afghanistan. Yet showing the World as one of the terror victims and has been so far receiving funds to fight terrorism within its territory, given the ongoing scenario Pakistan is leveraging from the Kashmir issue, giving it a religious touch to gain support of the Islamic nations yet some of the Islamic countries playing a key role in the regional politics declined to favor Pakistan’s stand-in Kashmir issue, calling it a bilateral political matter between India and Pakistan and they asked Pakistan not to ritualize the issue as Islam has nothing to do with it.

Kashmir Issue and Islam

On September 5, 2019, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed said: “Kashmir issue does not concern the Muslim community but rather a dispute between Islamabad and New Delhi”.

Despite many attempts, PM Khan failed to acquire International support concerning the issue, even Pakistan’s all-weather ally China also declined to favor Pakistan in Kashmir issue and called upon both the countries to resolve the issue together, calling it an internal issue. Therefore, Khan expressed his disappointment over the unexpected response from the International Community over the skirmish what he calls a human rights crisis in Jammu and Kashmir, also warned to boycott from the OIC (Organization of Islamic cooperation).

Pakistan killing the Soul of Balochistan

On the other hand, Pakistan’s Army has been continuously violating Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Baluchistan and other Pashtun populated regions over the last almost two decades. A report published by BBC unfolds the perennial tragedies suffered by the Pashtun population, the report shows that tens of thousands of Pashtuns have been brutally killed by Pakistan Armed forces across Waziristan, Swat, and other tribal regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province post 9/11.

Pakistan Army Supports Taliban

Pakistan Army began their war under so-called terrorist groups since the outset of the USA war of Afghanistan when the Taliban regime collapsed and the Taliban key commanders were provided shelter across the Durand Line. According to the local and international sources, the death toll of the innocent Pashtuns is estimated to be 50,000, many of the war sufferers have been forced to migrate to other places of Pakistan to find shelters.

Mass Killing of Pashtun Activists

Mass and target killings of prominent Pashtun activists by the Pakistan Police and military inflamed Pashtuns to stand up for their rights, eventually in the year 2014 a small group of 8 students at Gomal University, Dera Ismail Khan formed a social movement called Mehsud Tahafuz Movement (MTP) as an initiative for demining in Waziristan and other parts of FATA. the movement then changed to Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) after gaining popularity in the year 2018, as justice for Naqeebullah Mehsud, who was illegally killed in a fake encounter underway by the police officer Rao Anwar in Karachi (Pakistan). Tens of hundreds of Pashtuns are missing, across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. The Pak Army’s atrocities in Pashtun populated regions are detrimental and unbearable.

The suffering of Pashtuns in Pakistan

PM Imran Khan should prioritize giving Rights to Pashtuns suffering for decades within its country, stop the country’s military and police from involving in the mass and target killing of Human Rights activists across FATA and Baluchistan. should avoid bailouts to the militant groups thwarting the lives of people in neighbor countries. Since this is a political issue between the two countries, therefore PM Khan should not politicize and internationalize it by using religious rituals, as many of the key Islamic countries have denied intervening in the issue and called it an internal matter between India and Pakistan.

Pakistan at the brink of Financial agony

Hamayun Khan
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Pakistan at the brink of Financial agony

Since the outset of Imran khan’s tenure, Pakistan’s economy has been confronting a sprint slump.  Recently The government presented its Budget, which unfolded the Economic Survey of 2018-19, showcasing that the country’s GDP has grown at only 3.3% cent in the fiscal year 2018-19. This is a nine-year low.

Sky-high rate of Inflation, increased unemployment, and current account deficit are the key drivers causing Pakistani rupee to topple over almost 20% since 2017 against the dollar, the gap is expected to be further widened.

Pakistan is known as a huge sponsor of insurgent groups thought to be spending 95% of its annual budget on defense measures, well, it is still uncertain whether the allotted budget goes all in all to the defense or militants’ bailout?

In a recently held press conference, the Governor of Pakistan’s central bank expressed that Pakistan is coming out of the financial crisis with the assistance of its allies and the economy has been fixed in the right direction. He further added that a plan had been framed to chase off the current account deficit. His comments came just a day after Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement worth $20 billion.

On the other hand, the statistical data narrates a different story, as per data published by the Asian Development Bank, Pakistan’s GDP growth in the current fiscal year so far stays at 4.8%, lower than even Nepal (5.5%). In comparison, Bangladesh is growing at 7.5% and India’s GDP is at 7.6%. besides, Pakistan’s latest GDP figures show that it has stooped from 5.4% in 2017 and 5.8% in the following year. The GDP growth rate is anticipated to fall to 4% this year (2019) and then will remain at 3.5% for the next two years and fall further to 3.3% by 2022.

Being currently present on the Financial Action Taskforce (FATF) ’grey list’ Pakistan is up for a final review of its status at the FATF plenary meeting in Paris Next month. The main objective of the FATF is to outline standards and promote effective implementation of regulatory, legitimate, and operational measures for combating money laundering, terrorist financing and other relevant threats to the integrity of the International Financial System.

According to sources showing that Pakistan’s implementation of FATF action plan located only five out of 100+ UN-designated terrorists currently said to be present within the country. The five terrorist groups also include (1) Lashkar-e-Taiba (2) Jamaat-ud-Dawah (3) Falah-i-Insaniyat mastermind being Hafiz Saeed. given the fact that the country is involved in mass money laundering and providing a bailout to the terrorist groups it has been anticipated that the country will soon be blacklisted by FATF it the same continues further.

Sprint in inflation rate is another menacing issue for the country’s economic downfall, countrywide fuel prices increased to Rs98.89 ($0.70) per liter, with diesel prices at Rs117.43 ($0.83), some economists say that the government of Pakistan could curtail this problem by increasing the tax rates, but if the tax rates are increased Rupee will lose its value which will affect the country’s trade.

To avoid further deficiency, the country must put out proving funds to the militant groups, second enhance a trustworthy relationship with the neighbors, as Afghanistan and India play a key role in reviving Pakistan’s economy, third providing job opportunities to the people by using the country’s internal resources.

Crafting peace a greater dimension of restoring valley’s lost glory

Debasish Bhattacharyya
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Crafting peace a greater dimension of restoring valley’s lost glory

India’s Home Minister Amit Shah’s speech in both the Upper House (Rajya Sabha) and the Lower House (Lok Sabha) was not striking in itself, but his cogent and effective pitch on abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) served to prevent opposition taking steadfast stand against nullification leading to passage of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill, 2019.

Whether the scrapping of the much-talked-about Article 370 has been just and proper – only time will tell. Also, whether revoking J&K’s special status will really impact people’s lives and even if it does, up to what extent– only time will tell. But, the very move by Amit Shah yet again proves he has an unerring instinct for his opponents’ weaknesses. It left opposition alliance incohesive and Congress in particular directionless.

The BBC News article ‘Why Modi’s Kashmir move is widely supported in India’ read: “Slowly, sedulously the hardened sentiment on Kashmir had acquired a pan-Indian footprint.

An obvious upshot was and is a frustration with the status quo in Kashmir and fatigue with what is seen as the familiar cycle of victimhood and violence, blackmail and bluster. Politically the ground was fertile for a break from the past and for a new initiative, however audacious it may be.”

However, according to Professor Amitabh Mattoo of Jawaharlal Nehru University and former Vice-Chancellor, University of Jammu, ‘the battle for doing away with 370 was the easy battle. The battle for the hearts and minds is the larger war that has to be won. The war for peace. And that can only be done by demonstrating to the people of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh that they are better off without 370. Simply put, that economically, there will be better opportunities, that there will be investment, that they will get employment opportunities…..’

It’s true that ongoing uncertainty and confusion in J&K has affected the peak tourist season and its impact will be felt in the coming months. Though imposition of internet blackouts, reportedly 51st time this year, is not something new in J&K but cutting off all forms of communication certainly enrages people and disturbs economic activities.

Kashmir has been a vexed issue having multiple dimensions internally and externally. Internally, it’s a trouble-prone state, with resentment, alienation, hostility, alleged human rights abuses that need addressing in all earnestness.

Externally, Kashmir is a disputed territory divided between India and Pakistan.  Several foreign policy experts commented that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s chronic lack of understanding would doom the country’s foreign policy to failure. May or may not be so. Recently, a meeting to discuss ‘Kashmir’ at United Nations Security Council for the first time in 48 years ended without any outcome or statement from the council, much to India’s apparent relief.

However, there is no denying that Kashmir policy greatly revolves around domestic politics charting a political discourse aimed towards vote banks.

Learning from a crisis in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia

Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country and one of its fastest-growing economies. Ethiopian Prime minister, Abiy Ahmed after taking office just over a year ago embarked on unique reforms. He released political prisoners, removed bans on political parties and prosecuted officials accused of gross human rights abuses, but his government is battling ethnic bloodshed once held in check by the state’s iron grip.

Referring to Ethiopia, ‘The Economist’ in its recent article ‘The global gag on free speech is tightening’ writes that free speech is hard-won and easily lost. Only a year ago it flowered in Ethiopia, under a supposedly liberal new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. All the journalists in jail were released, and hundreds of websites, blogs, and satellite TV channels were unblocked. But now the regime is having second thoughts. Without a dictatorship to suppress it, ethnic violence has flared. Bigots have incited ethnic cleansing on newly free social media. Nearly 3m Ethiopians have been driven from their homes.

Ethiopia faces a genuine emergency, and many Ethiopians think it reasonable for the government to silence those who advocate violence.

But in reality, it did far more than that—in effect, it silenced everyone. And, it’s here the Ethiopian government committed a gross mistake.

Is the Narendra Modi government too much committing the same mistake? It’s too soon to give a definite answer because a yes-or-no answer contains within itself some assumptions and conditions.

In the developing scenario, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led NDA government has to tread very cautiously. Showing sheer political will at the highest level is of little help unless it works at the ground level. The government must take Kashmiri people particularly the youth into confidence to instill buoyancy into every faith-filled Kashmiri’s heart. The government machinery must consider the youth as agents of change; young people’s inclusion in the peace agenda is key to building and sustaining peace. Besides, the administration must assist and make room for the needs of those who wish to navigate their path to a better life.

The dilemma lies elsewhere, though. If the government deals sternly with militants and those who display their anti-India stance, it should also deal firmly with those BJP functionaries known for whiff of arrogance and ideological obstinance in their comments, e.g.  the comments centering on the notion that anyone who doesn’t share their views is against the country – as opposed to, perhaps, simply disagreeing. Agreeing to disagree is central to democratic principle but disagreeing about disagreement smack of overt and hidden dimensions of the political plan.

Since the Union Territory (UT) of J&K will now be under the Centre’s direct rule, there should be an atmosphere of trust and accountability toward a common goal. To replace the over two-decade-old insurgency with a new paradigm of waging peace, all the stakeholders must be committed, compassionate and passionate to seize the opportunity to demonstrate the real intention and show sincerity and sensitivity.

Finally, given the bounty of nature, scope, and talent in J&K, it can be transformed from the land stagnation to the land of prosperity. From the land of suboptimal utilization of resources to the land of optimal utilization of resources. And, to make that happen to craft peace is fundamental. Crafting peace a greater dimension of restoring the valley’s lost glory

HBO’s “Our Boys” – Anti-Israel propaganda or an honest look into a harsh reality?

Gal Amir
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4
HBO’s “Our Boys” – Anti-Israel propaganda or an honest look into a harsh reality?

The summer of 2014 was one of the worst summers in the bloody history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The chain of events that deteriorated into a war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza began with the abduction of three young Israelis – Eyal Yifrach, Gilad Shaar and Naftali Fraenkel.

The teenagers, who were trying to hitchhike from their boarding school back to their homes, were kidnapped by Palestinian operatives of Hamas in Hebron and apparently murdered soon after being kidnapped, their bodies hidden.

For about three weeks, extensive searches were carried out for the boys. The discovery of their bodies led to another murder. A Palestinian boy, 15-year-old Muhammad Abu-Khdeir, was kidnapped near his Jerusalem home by Jewish extremists and burned to death by his kidnappers. The events of that year, the murder of the four, the three Jewish boys and Abu-Khdeir, are seen as severe trauma, a stage on the way to Operation Protective Edge, an IDF military campaign in Gaza that led to dozens of Israeli and thousands of Palestinian deaths.

Living in Israel at the time, I can testify that the memory of that summer, five years ago, is still a fresh wound, one that will not heal for a very long time.

The American cable network, HBO, has recently released a TV series, “Our Boys,” revolving around the events surrounding these kidnappings and murders. “Our Boys” documents the killing of Abu-Khdeir by Jewish extremists, and the efforts of the State Security Service (Shabak)  to catch and prosecute the murderers.

The series, directed by three Israeli directors, two Jews and an Arab (Joseph Cedar, Hagai Levi, and Tawfik Abu-Wael) is an American HBO production, mainly aimed at American audiences, but as a conscious artistic decision, the characters in the series speak the original language – Hebrew or Arabic. This decision, which will limit the appeal of the series for English-speaking audiences, who don’t like to read subtitles, is what makes this series a true artistic achievement. The result is incredibly realistic, and the characters, accents, dialogue, and feelings created in the series are very believable.

So far, two episodes have been broadcast in Israel on the local satellite network ‘YES’, and in the United States, four episodes. I watched the two episodes and returned to that summer, feeling again the variety of feelings of fear, hatred, anxiety, and compassion I felt then.

The series is so true to reality that it is hard for me to understand how anyone who is not Israeli could understand the subtleties of the events on the screen.

  • Is it possible for anyone who knows only superficially the Arab-Israeli conflict to understand how Abu-Khdeir works in a burger joint in the west of the city (where his friends advise him not to speak Arabic), and returns home by light rail to the East Jerusalem area, Shu’afat neighborhood, where he lives – a territory occupied and annexed by Israel, in which living is very different from life in the ‘Jewish’ west of the city?
  • Would an American or Indian viewer understand why the policeman was reluctant to accept Abu-Khdeir’s father’s complaint?
  • Why is the father held for a full day at the police station when the police know that his son is no longer alive?
  • The relationship between the policemen, members of the force that enforces Israeli law in the east of the city, and the population that does not want to abide by this law?
  • Will he understand the conflict between the heads of Shabak and the agents from the ‘Jewish division’ of the same service, whose job is to monitor extremists in the Jewish population?
  • Will he differentiate as the filmmakers differentiated between different clothing details and different facial hair as a key to the origin and ideology of the heroes?
  • The wild hair and beard of the “extreme settlers” and the black and white attire, the neat hair of the “Oriental Yeshiva student”?

All of these are meticulously detailed in the series, in a manner true to the subtleties of the ethnic and ideological diversity of its heroes. But I guess the non-Israeli or non-Palestinian viewers, who will not be aware of these fine subtleties, will just be swept away by a fascinating story and a touching human drama.

Indeed, compassion is the sentiment felt for all characters, the “positive” and the “negative”, Jews and Palestinians alike.

The abducted boy’s family is portrayed in its moments of horror and loss, in a truly empathic manner, from the moment the boy was first seen on screen, and we know his unavoidable future.

But the killers are also portrayed as human beings with a storm of contradictory emotions that lead them to terrible acts. The character of one of the murderers, a fallen Yeshiva (Jewish religious school)  student, torn by questions of faith, constantly struggling within himself, going after an older friend, portrayed as a charismatic psychopath, finally committing the horrible murder, is presented in a complex, gentle and compassionate manner.

But despite the excellent acting, the exact script, and the fine production values ​​typical of the HBO network, the series was not received positively in Israel.

Many complained that the series portrayed the Israelis as a group of bloodthirsty murderers and that while it emphasized the murder of the Palestinian Abu-Khdeir, it belittled the kidnapping and murder of the three Jewish boys.

Another complaint is that while the Palestinian killers have been praised and glorified on the Palestinian street, Abu-Khdeir’s killers have been widely condemned by their Jewish compatriots, apprehended by the security services, and sentenced to severe penalties, but the series does not present these differences.

Families of Jews, victims of Palestinian terrorism, approached the HBO network demanding that this matter be made clear to viewers, but their request was denied.

In my opinion, these complaints are not well-founded. It is a well-known Israeli argument being repeated over and over is that while Israeli society sanctifies life, Palestinian society is sanctifying death. Because Israeli society condemns the killing of innocents, while Palestinian society encourages terror.

In my view, this argument is meaningless. Since the murder of the four boys, thousands of Israelis and Palestinians have been killed, and the two societies have been in a never-ending bloody conflict, where each party is sure of its justice, and each side blames the other for the continuation of the conflict and setting the fire ablaze.

The sad truth is that the burning of the Arab boy Abu-Khdeir was not a single event that was widely condemned, but one in a chain of Jewish terrorist acts, which was horrifyingly continued with the burning of an entire Palestinian family, the Dawabsha family, in the village of Duma, about a year later (those suspected of the murder are currently on trial, and their verdict has yet to be decided.)

The kidnapped Jewish boys were also not the last victims of Palestinian terror, and afterward, there were dozens of other victims, the last of whom, 17-year-old Rina Schnerb, was murdered in an attack that left her father and brother seriously injured, but a week ago. Perhaps watching a series depicting the loss, grief, sorrow, and compassion that accompany the murders will bring both sides to think about where they are headed.

So, anyone who wants to understand the Israeli-Palestinian conflict a little more deeply and enjoy a TV series that displays excellent acting, depth in the research, script, and character development can watch “Our Boys”.

The series accurately portrays the events, and watching it can conceptualize to a non-Israeli viewer conceptualize the harsh and complex reality in which Jews and Arabs live in our region, far beyond the bleeding chronology reflected in the news releases.

Eyes turn to the next parliamentary elections in Iran, Principlists have more hopefulness

Mohammad Javad Mousavizadeh
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Eyes turn to the next parliamentary elections in Iran, Principlists have more hopefulness

The eleventh Islamic Parliament elections in Iran will be on February 21, 2020, across the country. Seyed Salaman Samani spokesman of Interior Ministry said in an interview that has published on the official website of the ministry.

About 7 months have remained for the elections in Iran, but the politicians and parties have started to organize their campaigns and planning for victory.

The current parliament was formed from 41 percent Reformers and Moderates, 29 percent Principlists or right-wing, 28 percent Independents and 2 percent Minorities, according to the ISNA News Agency.

In, Tehran, the capital of the country, all seats were gained by the Reformers, but some important cities such as Mashhad as the second city in the country, the Principlists were decisive winners.

But there are serious dissatisfactions from the majority of people and political activists about the function of the parliament, even some experts emphasized on the famous slogan that says “Reformers, Principlist, the story is over.”

This situation has formed while the Iran Parliament has been under control between two sides in past years. So, some experts seek up the Third Faction for improving the country’s position, but so far the Third Faction has had not a leader and specific structure.

Because of the Reformers supporting President Hassan Rouhani in the last presidential elections in Iran and lack of his rhetorics realization, the position of the Reformers has weakened increasingly.

For example, Rouhani said during the contests of the presidential elections about 2 years ago in Iran television that If Iranians re-elect me, all sanctions even non-nuclear sanctions will be lifted. But now, the sanctions against Iran have increased and the economic situation of the people has hurt extremely.

More recently, many celebrities have regretted supporting Rouhani like Ali Karimi the former football player and Reza Sadeghi the famous singer, they demonstrated their regret on social media.

So, some Iranian analyzers predicate the victory of Principlists in the upcoming Iran elections 2020 on February 21. “The Principlists does not need to do something, and they are comfortably the winner of the next parliamentary elections in Iran.” Sadegh Zibakalam said in an interview with Shargh newspaper in Iran. Zibakalam is an Iranian academic, author described as reformist and neoliberal.

“We have no chance for parliamentary elections and next presidential elections unless a miracle happens,” he added.

The Iranian Principlists are closer to the leader and Islamic revolution guard corps than the Reformers. A political face in the right-wing like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with the slogans “New Parliament ” and “Neo-Principlism ” has presented a website and he has published an invitation for young people to receive their ability to provide the elections list. Ghalibaf launched his third presidential campaign for the Iranian presidency on April 15, 2017, but on 15 May 2017, Ghalibaf withdrew but supported Ebrahim Raisi who is the current chief of Iran’s judiciary.

Another face is the former president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. Some experts say Ahmadinezhad has a great plan for the next Iran elections, but so far he has not spoken about it. Recently he criticized toughly from the government of Rouhani and Iran’s Judiciary. Recently, some of his close activists arrested by Iran’s Judiciary, and they are in Evin Prison now.

Some analyzers say Ahmadinezhad has a high popularity, like that the people have welcomed warmly lately on his travels across the country.

JAMNA or “Popular Front of Islamic Revolution Forces” is another chance for Principlists in the next Iran elections 2020. JAMNA founded in late 2016 by ten figures from different spectrums of conservative factions, in the end, the party elected Ebrahim Raisi as a candidate for the presidential election but Raeisi defeated.

But Reformers are not hopeless quite, Mohammad Khatami as the leader of the Reformers, who served as the fifth President of Iran from 1997 to 2005 has said statements recently. He has wanted from the government to qualify the Reformers candidates for participation in the political event.

One of the Reformer’s big problems in the history of elections in Iran has been the disqualifications by the Guardian Council. According to the Iran constitution, all candidates of presidential or parliamentary elections in Iran, as well as candidates for the Assembly of Experts, have to be qualified by the Guardian Council to run in the parliamentary elections in Iran.

Some Reformers in reformist newspapers states that reformers will take part in the parliament elections on this condition that the majority of Reformers’ candidates will be qualified by the Guardian Council.

Of course, the Iran parliament has not enough power in order to improve the country’s situation. For example, the parliament has approved the bill of “United Nations Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime” by a 126 vote in June 2018, but the Guardian Council has disagreed with it and its fate shall determine by Expediency Discernment Council while the government has frequently emphasized on the bill.

The government believes the approving the bill will cause to reduction in the bans about the economic transaction with the world.

Generally, Iran’s economic position is very critical currently, tough sanctions by the America administration and the defeat of the nuclear deal (JCPOA) have caused that Iranians to be under serious problems. The stuff prices and inflation are at the highest level since Iran’s revolution in 1979. So, it seems any faction that focuses on solving the economic problems, has more chance for victory in the parliamentary elections. But the more important issue is the participation rate of people. If dissatisfactions about economic problems will be continued,  hope and joy between people would reduce and this would decrease the rate of Participation in the next elections.

Some experts say based on experiences in Iran, when the rate of participation in the elections is reduced, the Principlists has a more chance for the victory, because the Gray Spectrum usually has a willing to the Reformers, the spectrum includes younger people even teenagers in the urban society, they back away little themselves from Principlists. Some political observers say the Gray Spectrum has not very willing to participate in the next elections. Of course, the future situation, especially in the economic field is very important to make the willingness about the Gray Spectrum to participate.

Also, some political experts believe the winner of the presidential elections in 2 years later is the winner of the parliamentary elections on February 21, 2020, because the majority of the next parliament will affect the political space across the country. Usually, this procedure in Iran has precedent, like that victory of the Reformers in the last parliamentary elections in Iran that caused the Rouhani victory 2 years ago.

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