There is no change in Russian public opinion regarding the war in Ukraine, believes the scientific director of the Levada Center, doctor of philosophy Lev Gudkov. According to him, everything depends on the situation at the front.
He also noted the deepening of the process of self-isolation from Russian society, caused by a sense of the injustice of the war, its criminal nature. It seems to him that it locks people into their own shell. Nevertheless, the sociologist does not assess the situation as unpromising, seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
About this, and not only, Lev Gudkov spoke in an interview with the Russian service of media.
Viktor Vladimirov: Lev Dmitrievich, what tendencies are currently prevailing in the public consciousness of Russia in relation to the war in Ukraine?
Lev Gudkov: According to our observations, there is not very clearly expressed, but quite tangible support for the authorities and for the war itself. At the same time, approval of the war remains at the 70% level, but at the same time 50% and even slightly more of respondents want it to be stopped. This split reflects the under-formation of public opinion. The point here is that propaganda works tirelessly and establishes the necessary authorities for the interpretation of events, and there is almost no alternative work that could articulate anti-war sentiments, or it is very weak. Therefore, from March to January, we fix the static distribution of all opinions.
VV: “Approval of war” sounds, of course, monstrous. What can change the picture here?
LG: Until the situation in the war zone (in Ukraine) changes drastically, no change is expected in the public consciousness of Russians, as I think. Mainly because the authorities completely control the information space. According to the latest data from human rights activists and media experts, more than 600,000 pages on the Internet have been blocked. Limited access to Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, etc. And this is really a very important point. A large part of the population does not have alternative information and partly does not want to have it.
VV: And what caused the reluctance to receive objective information?
LG: There are still technical possibilities (to access independent sources of information), but people are either afraid to step out of the usual circle, or they feel severe discomfort in the face of negative information coming from the battlefields. Therefore, what we see is not only a consensus imposed from above, but also the internal resistance of citizens, their reluctance to face the truth. This situation will apparently continue for some time, until, I repeat, a decisive turning point occurs during the “special operation” (war). In addition, the general trend is affected by the departure of opponents, anti-war and independent journalists from the country.
VV: Judging by the latest convictions in absentia of critics of the regime who have gone abroad, are the authorities trying to completely block their way home?
LG: Of course. Hence all the threats against them and the talk about confiscating the property of opponents of Putin who emigrated. This, of course, has a very serious effect on mass consciousness. Let us add here the facts of an attempt on the life of the leaders of the opposition, their assassination. When analyzing our data, we also note the deepening of the process of self-isolation in Russian society. It is the feeling of the injustice of the current war, its criminal character, which pushes people to turn in on themselves, to isolate themselves from the outside world. Shame, pain and helplessness – this is how you can formulate a complex of their feelings.
VV: What is the Kremlin betting on now?
LG: It seems to me that the emphasis is on suppressing any discontent and establishing control, including on radicals, nationalists like Girkin (Igor Strelkov, sentenced to life imprisonment in the of the Malaysian Boeing shot down over Ukraine – VV) and companies of ultra-patriots who strongly criticize the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine. The regime tries to control all open manifestations of discontent. The authorities understand that they will not obtain total unanimity, but they still try to shut everyone’s mouths indiscriminately with the help of repression and thus influence the behavior of the silent majority, Marsh “.
VV: You talked about the importance of the changes at the front. But there was also the retreat of Russian troops to Kharkiv and their flight from Kherson.
LG: Such events affect only in a certain sense, causing anxiety, irritation and some dissatisfaction with the military command. There are premonitions of defeat, but they are brushed aside as something unacceptable. People withdraw into themselves and (or) categorically do not want to hear any arguments if they contradict their inner image of the world.
VV: And how does the population react to excessive state intervention in sensitive areas as subtle as art, theater, music, to prohibitions of all kinds, to censorship?
LG: The masses tend rather to agree with such actions and to accept the official interpretation of events as the only correct one: they say that everything is done only to prevent the harmful influence of the West or to undermine the traditional Western spiritual values. people. It is a manifestation of conformism in its classical form. The irritation, of course, manifests itself, but it mainly concerns a fairly thin layer of citizens. In a nutshell, it will be discussed angrily on social media and in kitchens, but it is unlikely to result in a desire to change the game, especially in protest.
VV: Do Putin’s war crimes accusations resonate in the minds of citizens?
LG: They have a very ambiguous influence on the formation of public opinion. At first, this is simply denied by the vast majority, perceived as slander and a manifestation of Western hostility. But there is reason to believe that understanding the criminality of the actions of the authorities will penetrate the thickness of mass consciousness, and over time, in changing circumstances, will certainly play a big role in terms of legitimacy. However, this will only manifest itself in a situation of military defeat or acute economic crisis. Then the awareness of the criminality of the actions of the Putin regime will work. Bulk view reconfiguration requires powerful triggers. Nevertheless, people hear the accusations from Western democracies and think about them. A drop wears away a stone.
