The massive use of drones, especially suicide drones, has become a feature of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Iran supplies Russia with hundreds of drones, which are used by Russian troops to destroy civilian infrastructure and cause significant damage.
Despite the fact that the Ukrainian army has learned to effectively repel attacks from drones, nicknamed “mopeds” because of their noisy engine, civilians are often victims of drones.
Iran provides Russia with Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones, renamed Geran-1 and Geran-2.
Iran denies continuing to supply its drones at this time, but admits supplying drones to Russia before the invasion.
However, the Western intelligence community says the supply of Iranian drones to Russia continues.
The United States has repeatedly declared its willingness to limit Iran’s ability to supply weapons to Russia.
The United States has repeatedly declared its willingness to limit Iran’s ability to supply weapons to Russia.
In early January, the United States announced additional sanctions against the management of Qods Aviation Industries (QAI), and in early February against another drone manufacturer, Paravar Pars.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in January 2023 that Iranian drones were being used to kill Ukrainian civilians.
“Their weapons are being used to kill civilians in Ukraine and to plunge cities into cold and dark, which, in our view, puts Iran in a position where it could potentially facilitate war crimes against large scale,” Sullivan said.
By stepping up the use of Iranian drones in the war against Ukraine, Russia appears to pose particular challenges to Iranian industrialists.
The British research firm Conflict Armament Research (CAR), which had access to downed Iranian drones, concluded that Iran may have improved the models supplied to Russia.
So, metal fragments were added to the warheads, and the amount of explosives was noticeably increased.
Compared to more advanced weapon systems, combat drones are relatively inexpensive to manufacture. Therefore, Russia, which, according to many experts, relies on a long war with Ukraine, increasingly aspires to their independent production.
On February 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with the leaders of the Russian Agency for Strategic Initiatives, instructed to “form a national project” in order to “provide opportunities for the widespread exploitation drones” and to ensure a “high level of localization of their production.
In December 2022, the White House warned that Moscow and Tehran were considering creating a joint venture to produce drones.
In December 2022, the White House warned that Moscow and Tehran were considering creating a joint venture to produce drones.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia and Iran have agreed to build a factory in Yelabuga. On January 5, 2023, a delegation of senior officials from Iran, in particular the drone manufacturing company Qods Aviation Industries, visited Yelabuga.
According to the newspaper’s sources, we are talking about the mass production of Shahed-136 advanced kamikaze drones with greater range.
According to Henry Rome, a senior fellow at the Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, plans to build the plant indicate a significant deepening of military-technical cooperation between Iran and Russia.
“Creating joint production in Russia has a number of advantages over the current (supply) scheme. This simplifies the supply of the Russian army – there will be no need to deliver drones from Iran. It has been reported that innovations will be used in their production, which could potentially allow Iran to obtain Russian technology, or at least an exchange of ideas, information and technology between Russian and Iranian engineers , which will enable the production of more lethal drones for Russian use in Ukraine. . Perhaps Iran will then be able to use these drones on the battlefields of the Middle East as well.
This new production facility will allow the Russian-Iranian consortium to produce more drones as Iran has somewhat limited capacity. And in addition, (building a factory in Russia) reduces security risks – given what we saw in Isfahan in early January (attacks on Iranian military installations) and the vulnerability of the Iranian military-industrial complex to sabotage by countries like Israel.
I think that’s a pretty remarkable development. It should be noted that the construction of the plant will probably take several years – if these plans are really implemented. So it won’t necessarily have an immediate impact on the battlefield, depending on how long the war in Ukraine lasts. But, regardless, establishing closer relations with Russia is important for Iran in terms of improving its armaments,” says Henry Rome.
Building a joint factory in Russia could circumvent some UN Security Council resolutions that limit Iran’s ability to buy and sell weapons.
Russia and Iran deny that Russia is using Iranian suicide drones in the war against Ukraine. Tehran denies plans to build a joint factory, and Moscow says “Russia itself is implementing a drone development program.”
In Russia today, there is a desire to put the country’s economy on a mobilization basis, believes political scientist Andrey Okara. According to him, the news around a possible joint project with Iran must also be considered from this angle.
“It is not for nothing that Russian propaganda points to the state of the military-industrial complex (MIC), a legacy of the Soviet Union, as one of the main reasons for the failure of the Russian army in the war against Ukraine,” he added. added in an interview with the Russian service media. – After the failure of the blitzkrieg, the Kremlin’s strategy changes radically. They now believe that it is possible to win a long and stubborn war by exhausting all the forces of the enemy.
Iran’s top priority right now is not an ad hoc alliance with the Putin regime, but a “nuclear deal” in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
Andrei Okara notes that in his opinion, the main priority for Iran is no longer a situational alliance with the Putin regime, but a “nuclear agreement” in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
“Therefore, Tehran will deny the authenticity of the information about the joint construction of the plant. Today, being a publicly defiant ally of Russia benefits no one – not even an international pariah like Iran.
The project to build a Russian-Iranian drone factory confirms the Kremlin’s bet on a long war, according to economic observer Semyon Novoprudsky. As for the militarization of the Russian economy, according to him, it is gradually continuing, but due to external and internal restrictions, it is unlikely to reach Soviet proportions.
“At the time of the collapse of the USSR, the military-industrial complex created almost three-quarters of the GDP of the country’s economy,” the media source recalled. “However, judging by the Iranian drone factory recently bombed by Israel, such ventures can be relatively inexpensive facilities. In general, drones are relatively inexpensive weapons. Therefore, in this case, it seems to me that the initiator of the idea is certainly not Iran, but Russia. Thus, Russia will locate the production of aircraft at home, pay something to Tehran, which can wash its hands and say lucidly that it does not supply its drones to anyone. So it all makes sense.”
In general, the expansion of cooperation between Moscow and Tehran today seems very significant, said Semyon Novoprudsky. According to him, these are “two boots of steam”.
“Moreover, for Russia, under the current regime, Iran is also a model for the future, mainly in the economy, but perhaps not only. Iran now has a GDP about half of what it was in 1979, when the first Western sanctions were imposed on it. In other words, in nearly half a century, the country has become twice as poor. The Kremlin is leading the country down the same path, entering into an absolutely hopeless confrontation with much of the rest of the world. Adventurism in foreign policy is expensive,” Novoprudsky concluded.
