Leading NATO analysts suggest that during Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, a “critical semester” is looming for both sides in the conflict. On this subject writing Bild referring to “one of the high-ranking representatives of the alliance”.
The publication’s interlocutor said he was convinced that “well-trained soldiers and Western precision weapons” will allow Ukraine to organize a counter-offensive in the next six months and decide the outcome of the conflict “before next winter”.
According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will start using military equipment, weapons and ammunition, which Western countries are currently supplying Kiev, as early as May in order to “force the Russian army out of the south and east of the country.”
“Training, equipment, logistics and knowledge of the secret services – Ukraine’s partners are currently doing everything possible to carry out a counteroffensive. <...> We are preparing a spring or summer offensive. The next six months will be a key period of the war, not only for Ukraine, but also for the allies,” Bild said quoting a NATO representative.He recalled that the West is currently supplying Ukraine with about 500 tanks and armored personnel carriers, which are expected to be used in the upcoming massive counter-offensive. According to a senior NATO official, it will be held "in the Lugansk and Zaporizhzhia regions".The objective of the counteroffensive in the south-east of Ukraine, the NATO representative called "breaking through the land route to Crimea", without excluding the possibility of an attack directly on the peninsula itself- same, which, according to him, "Kiev has the right to return."A NATO source added that "other offensives" were in preparation, which he could not comment on. Bild's interlocutor recalled that in the summer of 2022 "all eyes were on Kherson", after which Ukraine "dealed an unexpected blow" in the Kharkiv region.The NATO representative stressed that the Ukrainian air defense system is now "much stronger" than it was at the start of the military operation. By this, he explains in particular the possible "reluctance of Moscow at the present time to increase the number of its flight crews or its combat aircraft stationed in Ukraine".By words According to a Bild source, NATO analysts had predicted a few months ago that with the onset of spring, Russia would launch a full-scale offensive “in most of Ukraine”, including Kiev and Kharkiv. However, the alliance now believes that those predictions will no longer come true.
As the NATO official suggested, Russia is not showing “the political will for a massive troop deployment” in Ukraine, as it may face an ammunition shortage and fear the loss of aircraft. fight. He also recalled that PMC “Wagner” has been fighting for the “middle” city of Bakhmut “for more than six months”.
Other predictions about when the Ukrainian conflict will end
The fact that the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine could end in October 2023 has already been stated by Markus Koipp, an employee of the ETH Zurich military academy, in an interview with t-online. The expert came to this conclusion based on the data that the Russian side has already used a significant part of the reserve of serviceable tanks and other equipment. The analyst called the declared stocks of Russian weapons “extremely overestimated”, pointing out that many combat vehicles and guns were produced in the middle of the 20th century.
Military experts from the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (AVN PLA) predict that the conflict in Ukraine will end in the summer of 2023, Japanese newspaper Nikkei reported. Their report notes that the economies of Russia and Ukraine are too depleted to continue to struggle after the summer. At the same time, Chinese analysts believe that Moscow will emerge from the conflict “in a more favorable situation”.
Bloomberg shared his scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine, suggesting that hostilities could end by the middle of this year or next year.
The American research center RAND has described several scenarios for the end of the conflict: the final victory of one of the parties, a truce with a cessation of hostilities and a political settlement. Center analysts consider the implementation of the first scenario (the eventual victory of one of the parties) unlikely.
