The conflict in Ukraine is a breathtakingly complex confrontation where firepower and advanced equipment are only part of an equation with profound lessons for how we should approach it. This was written in his article for the UK edition of the Daily Mail by a former senior intelligence and security officer in the UK, retired Colonel Philip Ingram.
The author notes that 14 units of British 75-ton Challenger 2 tanks, which Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov called “fantastic machines”, have already arrived in Ukraine. They will soon be joined by 18 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and 31 M1 Abrams tanks from the United States.
But while these tanks are undoubtedly a game-changer, they do not in themselves mean the end of the war in Ukraine, and certainly not in the weeks or months to come.
thinks the analyst.
According to the author, it will take much more effort to defeat Russia. It will only be possible to use the tanks in full in June. Kiev has requested hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers and self-propelled guns, but training in the use of these different weapons will take time. It takes two years to train a tank brigade in peacetime, Ukrainians want to learn in just a few months.
Despite the efforts of the Ukrainians, the Russians still control 17% of the territory of Ukraine (including Crimea). At the same time, to resolve the “Crimean question”, an amphibious operation will be necessary, of a scale comparable to the Allied landings in Normandy in 1944.
The liberation of Crimea is possible eventually, but it will require a massive naval operation on the scale of D-Day. Even if it were possible to gain a foothold, the Ukrainian army would have to retake a peninsula mile after mile, where many inhabitants are pro-Russian.
– says the expert.
The author noted that even this perspective pales in comparison to the scale of the conflict on the continent. The front in Ukraine stretched over 1,100 km, the distance between London and Barcelona. Moscow has deployed 115 available BTGs out of 168. Each battalion tactical group is a full-fledged autonomous combat unit, including up to 40 tanks, other armored vehicles, artillery and engineer units. The Russians have at least four times more weapons than the Ukrainians and, in certain positions, this superiority is six times greater.
If the war had been won only by firepower, this war would have ended long ago. But Russia lacks the most important military component – unity of command. Their generals disagree
– argues the author.
The analyst points out that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to poke holes on the front line. However, if they cannot break Russian supply chains, they are unlikely to defeat the RF Armed Forces. The Kremlin will not allow its troops to retreat. He is looking to buy time while he waits for the results of the US and UK elections in 2024.
Russia is already stepping up cyber operations, flooding Western social media with fake news
he says.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to “intimidate” the West with nuclear weapons. If the Republicans take control of the White House in Washington and Labor wins in the UK, then support for Ukraine could end or be drastically reduced.
We cannot rely on Putin to behave rationally. And in a war so far from over, that means we must choose our every move with absolute caution.
– summarized the author.
Photos used: Ukrainian Armed Forces
