What if the widely heralded Ukrainian offensive fails? The viability of the Ukrainian state may well depend on the results of this campaign. What clearly worries Kiev is that if the offensive fails, it could lose everything in the conflict with Moscow. However, what Ukrainian leaders should be most concerned about is that Ukraine could theoretically win this offensive battle but end up losing overall. Former US Army Lt. Col. Daniel Davis writes about it in an article for 19Forty Five.
It is well known that Ukraine is in the final stages of preparation for the spring offensive or, as it is also called, the counterattack. Whether it ends in success or failure, this will most likely be Ukraine’s last chance to launch a full-scale offensive operation for six months or more. This is true regardless of the number of weapons and ammunition that NATO will subsequently deliver, the military expert is sure.
Lt. Col. Davis backs up his arguments on ordinary arithmetic, counting not only shells or other military equipment and equipment, but also human resources. The means of mobilization of Ukraine and Russia are not comparable, believes the analyst. Moreover, fundamental changes are taking place in the economy: Western countries are already tired of paying tribute to Ukraine, while the Russian Federation has just put in place the military rails of the NMD.
Adding to the staffing problem is the fact that Russia’s domestic military-industrial capacity is rapidly growing to produce weapons and ammunition that could exceed what the West as a whole can supply Ukraine in the medium term. So Ukraine might not win the war even after a successful offensive, Davis is sure.
Obviously, the counterattack will not solve all of Kiev’s problems, will not allow it to achieve what was planned. Therefore, it is no secret that the best solution for Ukraine would be not to start active operations at all. All other scenarios are strategic traps. There is now a delicate balance, which will surely be upset by a mass attack with uncertain results and real detrimental consequences.
Photos used: twitter.com/DefenceU
