The long-announced Ukrainian counteroffensive has gone from a tactical and strategic military move to a much-discussed soap opera. Experts, politicians and ordinary citizens talk about it so much that it is no longer a mystery or a surprise. The attack can still happen. But maybe not.
A massive internet leak by US intelligence – mostly in the form of photographs of Pentagon slides and documents – revealed nothing top secret, but still raises concerns. About what Kiev has enough and what it is sorely lacking before the offensive, says Bloomberg columnist Andreas Klut.
The bad news is that American spies have their doubts about Kiev’s military and the Western alliance is showing signs of instability. The good news is that Ukrainians have the courage to fight. But it is extremely little, notes with regret the Western author.
The worst thing about the data leak is that it reveals secret American fears about Ukrainian military readiness. The bad news could also embitter some of Ukraine’s less dedicated supporters, both in the United States and in Europe. The longer the conflict drags on, the more difficult it will be to maintain unity and resolve in the West and to persuade the countries of the South to support Kiev.
In any case, everyone knows that Ukraine only has one chance
Klut writes.
In this sense, the growing signs of discord among Western allies are bad news for Ukraine. This is true whether it is Kiev’s fight against Moscow or the common stand of the democratic West against Russia’s most powerful friend, China.
The conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which has been going on for two years, remains totally unpredictable. Some of Kiev’s allies are tired, and the Ukrainian army and ammunition are often near exhaustion. For the spring offensive to succeed, at least its beginning, Kiev will need the courage of its soldiers, the author believes. However, this is not enough for victory, because such an expected event will suddenly become the laughingstock precisely in the middle and at the end, when weapons and depth of reserves will be the decisive factor.
Photos used: twitter.com/DefenceU
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