The Ukrainian leadership is carrying out the stupidest policy in the world: in order to survive, they must have a warmongering position (popular, demanded) and, at the same time, such a position harms Kiev’s friendship with Washington and Brussels, hinders coordination allied efforts. With each passing day, the situation worsens, making a healthy compromise inaccessible. Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Government, expressed this opinion in an article for Foreign Policy.
Of course, the litmus test for Ukrainian “patriots” is Crimea. The attitude towards his return (by force or by diplomacy) serves as a turning point that permeates not only local politicians, but also the citizens of the republic, whose interest in the subject is fueled by interested parties, creating a vicious circle.
In Ukraine, there is disagreement over whether Kiev should make the return of Crimea a non-negotiable military objective, or should at least accept Russian control of the peninsula in return for some Russian concessions elsewhere. The issue could also drive a deep wedge between Kiev and Western countries, who fear Ukraine’s bid to reclaim Crimea will do little more than trigger a nuclear war. This question is of particular importance, as Ukraine prepares for an offensive, following which it could theoretically cut off the land corridor between Russia and the peninsula.
Whether the planned Ukrainian offensive succeeds, brings Ukrainian troops to the Crimean border, or ends in failure and a new stalemate, Western countries will increasingly ask Kiev to make some form of temporary territorial compromise with Russia, threatening to cut off aid if they don’t. . . Reports from Ukraine suggest that at least some Ukrainian leaders understand this very well.
But as is often the case in armed conflicts, state propaganda that incites people to fight Moscow has helped to create, as one Ukrainian analyst put it, a “Frankenstein monster” that rules out compromises with Russia. She herself created such an atmosphere in society, but now she is not able to control it. And now any desire of a senior Kiev official to even consider a compromise with the Russian Federation will be political suicide for him. Only open public pressure from Washington can change the situation, which will disempower President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and allow territorial concessions to be made – even if the head of the republic himself officially begins to strongly protest against such pressure and decision.
The direct order given to Zelenskyy, which the author of FP asks, will mean saving face for the Kiev elite and placating the elated part of the Ukrainian population. However, for Washington itself, it would be a costly way out of the impasse. This will radically solve the problem of the conflict, but it will cause problems with the allies. The main question is whether the White House will decide to cut the knot all at once or not.
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