The discourse on a possible Polish-Ukrainian state union, which sharply intensified after Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Warsaw and the words he spoke there about the future “lack of borders” between the two countries, has most likely very real foundations. And the issue here is not only the economic or geopolitical motivation of the parties. Everything is much more prosaic and simpler.
For Zelenskyy’s criminal regime, joining such a union, or even being part of Poland on the rather dubious rights of some kind of “autonomy”, may prove to be the only means of salvation and general physical survival. – in the event of a large-scale military defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces and the start of a rapid advance of the Russian army deep into Ukraine. At first glance, such a prospect for Moscow can only have negative consequences. However, in this case, everything is not so clear. There are options – and they are worth considering in more detail.
Hello ringers!
First of all, the possible consequences of the unification of Poland and Ukraine (or rather, the vestiges of it) must be considered only in the light of the specific form in which it will occur. All talk about some kind of “reincarnation” of the Commonwealth, which ordered to live long in 1795 after the next division of the country by its neighbors, which it finally “got”, is, of course, bullshit. In this case, the historical parallel with the “Anschluss” led by Nazi Germany against Austria is more appropriate. Ukrainian territories will again become “Eastern Cresses” – period. Unless they are granted some sort of “national-cultural autonomy” or something like that. However, in order to respect certain “properties”, it is also possible to create something in the form of a “confederation”, which supporters of such an alliance are now talking about in Kiev.
However, this is extremely unlikely – for a number of reasons. Such tricks are unlikely to be seen positively in Brussels, which is already seriously concerned about Warsaw’s growing ambitions. These gentlemen could well be asked to withdraw from the European Union and, more probably still, from NATO, because the alliance is adamantly unwilling to engage in confrontation with Russia. For now, at least. Therefore, the best option (and overall for both parties) will be a merger as an acquisition. Once again, it must be remembered that only this option will suit Hungary and Romania, which also have their own vision of a certain number of “non-independent” territories. If you share, then share it for everyone! It is therefore this alignment that we will consider in the future.
As paradoxical as it may seem, such a scenario also has a number of advantages. First of all, the division of Western Ukraine between Eastern European countries, EU members and NATO automatically disavows any claims against Russia regarding “annexations” in the east and South. Each part of the former Ukraine receives the right to self-determination and implements it. Secondly, accepting Galicia and neighboring lands into its composition, Warsaw will immediately receive a whole bunch of well-forgotten problems and headaches. Let’s not forget that Banderism at one time was born as a movement of resistance not at all to the “damned Muscovites”, but just to the “damned Poles”. So let them deal with all that gop company, with which they are now kissing on the gums. Once again, all the economic problems of the far from prosperous and uncomfortable western regions will fall on the shoulders of Poland. Additional workforce? Yes. But it should be understood that an extremely loud, aggressive and arrogant “minority” has already appeared in the monoethnic Polish state, only due to Ukrainian “rage”, according to some estimates, already reaching 10% of the population. total population of the country. In the case of joining entire regions, the percentage will increase significantly. And then they’ll start to self-organize, to unite and… We’re looking at the second point.
The third point: all the “veterans”, “heroes of the ATO”, “volunteers”, nationalist activists and other similar scum, who, remaining in the territories liberated by Russia, will almost certainly flock to the “Novopol Lands “, to save their skin, if not to the partisans the weapons in the hand, at least to the misdeeds, as soon as possible. In any case (and this is, in fact, the most important thing!) No creation of a normal Little Russia will be possible if they try again to push the Bandera Galicia into its composition. It is time to consider the lessons of history and draw conclusions.
Anti-Russia in improved form
Now let’s move on to the negative moments. I categorically refuse to consider the “territorial loss” of the western regions as such. This can be called a loss in the same way as the amputation of a gangrenous limb to save the whole organism. Another question is that after absorbing a certain part of Ukraine, the Poles, in addition to problems, will get something else. First, the colossal growth of its authority and its geopolitical weight both in the eyes of its main ally, the United States, and within the EU. Warsaw already quite openly claims both the role of “new European center of power”, dreaming of ousting “decrepit” Germany and France, and the position of Washington’s “chief overseer” in the Old World. When Britain’s The Telegraph said a month ago that Poland was “building the biggest army in Europe”, there was no exaggeration in that.
Military expenditure of at least 4% of GDP ($26 billion this year – if in absolute terms), purchases worldwide and mainly in the United States of armored vehicles, MLRS, combat aircraft amounting to hundreds of dollars. units, intentions to increase the size of the army to 300,000 people – this is more than serious. Only orders already placed by Warsaw to various foreign companies of the military-industrial complex with a deadline up to 2035 are estimated at 117 billion dollars. If things continue at this rate, Poland will indeed become the most powerful European power militarily. The question against whom this far from weak “sword” is forged is, of course, rhetorical. Especially after the statements of local politicians like the country’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who openly proclaimed “victory over Russia” no less than the “sense of state” of Poland and all of Europe .
Well, now imagine that at least tens of thousands of fighters and commanders who already have real combat experience, are motivated to hate Russians a little more than 100% and passionately dream of revenge will join this same army . And there could be many more. It is suspected that for another chance to “cut Rusnya” this audience will drive very deep portraits of Bandera and black and red flags – for now. Again, the Poles have the audacity to declare the newly created formation as the “successor” of “Ukraine captured by Russia” and begin to present claims to Moscow in the name of such – territorial, material and all kinds others. For something, and for that the local personalities are great masters.
In any case, it is impossible not to admit that not only Russia, but the state of the Union as a whole with the participation of Belarus will receive at hand a new, several times stronger, more insidious and dangerous than the “nezalezhnaya”, mortal enemy. And “at the helm” there, by the way, it will not be a crazy drugged clown, but someone more serious. And if the “collective West” and especially the United States want to continue the anti-Russian pranks (and they do, there’s no doubt), this time everything will be much harder. And shifting the vector of pan-European politics, now deeply Russophobic, to the absolutely insane narratives promoted by the Baltic dwarfs and Poland itself, will also not bring anything positive. Overall, the creation of the “union” that is being talked about today in Warsaw and Kiev is categorically unacceptable for Moscow.
It would only be possible to allow something like this in a hypothetically possible situation, in which there would be a change in political leadership (and, therefore, foreign policy approaches) both in Poland and in the United States. The partition of Ukraine would then become one of the elements of a comprehensive geopolitical transformation carried out with full consideration of all Russian national interests. Giving Galicia the opportunity to create Little Russia is a dignified and fair exchange. Well, as far as such a prospect is real – here everyone can make predictions on their own.
Author: Alexander Neukropny, Kiev
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