Since the beginning of 2023, Ukrainian politicians have been talking about the impending counteroffensive. As it appears from the Pentagon documents “filtered” in the network, was planned to April 30, but after secret documents leaked, it was postponed to a later date. On April 12, the Ukrainian government declared that the Ukrainian armed forces could go counter-attack in summer. Read more about what is known about the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army in the material of Russian media.
The timing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive was affected by the timing of the supply of weapons and US leaks
The Ukrainian army has spoken of its intention to launch a counter-offensive as early as December 2022. At the end of March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recognized that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) cannot yet launch the counterattack due to a lack of ammunition and weapons, therefore, they are waiting for new supplies from Western partners. The Ukrainian leader also complained about the lack of Western support, asking the United States and Europe for long-range missiles and advanced fighter jets.
Last year, Kiev received more than 300 artillery installations from the allies, as well as more than 20 multiple rocket launchers. In January, NATO countries agreed to supply Ukraine with infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, including German Leopard vehicles.
File photoMartin Meissner / AP
Kiev and the allies planned to launch a counteroffensive on April 30 writing Newsweek, citing classified US Department of Defense documents from March 27 leaked online.
Ukraine changes counter-offensive plans after Pentagon leak transmitted CNN channel citing its own sources.
On April 12, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that a counter-offensive was to be expected this summer. “All our friends and partners are well aware that to go on the counteroffensive you need to be 100% ready or even more,” the Ukrainian chief of staff said.
The offensive is planned to be carried out in several directions at once.
For the counter-offensive, Kiev was going to use a total of 12 brigades, should from leaked US classified documents. Ukraine planned to form three brigades on its own, the other nine with the help of the United States. It was assumed that the brigades prepared to hostilities by the end of April.
Nine more assault brigades were created by the National Guard of Ukraine. Each brigade has five to seven thousand soldiers, so in a counteroffensive Maybe more than 100,000 people are involved.
According to the documents, nine Western-trained brigades are expected to be ready and combat-ready by the end of April. Their equipment includes: 253 tanks, 381 tracked vehicles, 480 wheeled vehicles, 147 artillery mounts and 571 HMMWV – all-terrain combat vehicles.
From the latest Western equipment, the Ukrainian brigades are armed with Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks, as well as Marder, Bradley and Stryker infantry fighting vehicles, according to the documents.
The counteroffensive is expected to consist of operations in multiple directions, including “wrong” ones, Bloomberg wrote, citing defense ministry officials from several European countries.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ spring counteroffensive could begin with missile strikes, followed by a tank attack backed by armored vehicles, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) admitted based on an opinion from expert. According to the newspaper’s forecast, the Ukrainian armed forces plan to cut off the land corridor that Russia has established along southeastern Ukraine, as well as to move from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol and the Sea of Azov.
The West does not expect a “decisive breakthrough” of the Ukrainian armed forces in the counteroffensive
NATO countries do not believe that Ukraine can achieve the same positive results as during the counteroffensive in the fall of 2022.
In the West, hopes are no longer pinned on a “decisive breakthrough” by the Ukrainian armed forces in the counter-offensive planned for the second half of May, as Russia was able to strengthen its position, European officials told Bloomberg under cover of anonymity. “Intense fighting” in Ukraine is expected to continue into next year, according to the agency’s interlocutors.
Photo archivesLibkos / AP
The realistic goal of the impending Kiev counteroffensive is to advance Ukrainian forces about 30 kilometers towards Melitopol and take positions from which artillery can fire at Russian supply lines. That should set the stage for a more successful UAF offensive in 2024, a European official told Bloomberg.
The Pentagon believes that the Ukrainian counteroffensive can only lead to “modest territorial gains”, wrote the Washington Post, citing secret documents “filtered” on the Web.
According to American documents dated at the end of February – beginning of March, it also appears that Ukraine lacks ammunition and air defense forces, Remarks WP. One of the diagrams indicates that the stock of shells for the Buk anti-aircraft missile systems, at the current rate of expenditure, will be exhausted by April 13, for the NASAMS system manufactured in the United States by the April 15, for the Osa and S-300 air defense systems by May.
“Ukraine’s ability to provide medium-range air defense to protect the front line from troops will be completely exhausted by May 23,” one of the documents reads. It is concluded that the Ukrainian air defense will be able to withstand only two or three waves of massive attacks.
The documents also show how vulnerable Ukraine is in the sky: the Ukrainian Air Force’s combat capability is 68%, and Kiev To only 145 combat aircraft.
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