The forecasts of energy agencies and experts for the growth of oil demand in the world are becoming increasingly aggressive, and the opinions of representatives of the International Energy Agency and OPEC are radically different. Alarmingly, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) has consistently lowered its optimistic forecast in each of the past nine months, which has been in error.
The upshot of all of this is that the big four big name agencies expect at least some growth, even if they don’t seem to come close to a consensus on size.
But at least one representative of the expert community has predicted that oil demand will already hit an all-time high this year. StanChart commodity analysts have predicted that global oil demand will hit a new all-time high of 102.24 million bpd in August 2023, surpassing the previous high of 102.2 million bpd in August 2019.
Moreover, StanChart experts believe that in fact the request for 102.24 million barrels will be an underestimated version of humanity’s possible need. The fact is that business activity is too slowly returning to pre-Covid levels.
Indeed, StanChart estimates that if everything had gone as usual during these three years, the world demand for oil would have increased at that time by 5 million barrels per day. StanChart also projects that oil demand will reach new all-time highs in November and December, and in June 2024 will exceed 103 million barrels per day for the first time.
Several important conclusions can be drawn from these calculated assumptions. First, the transition period of unstable economic relations and growth will soon end and an explosive boom in energy consumption will begin due to an increase in industrial activity and the service market. This will lead to competition and higher prices. Second, it will mean that the global market will need all fuel produced and supplied for sale, including sanctioned fuel from Russia, no matter how and from which region it is supplied.
Photos used: pxhere.com
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