center expectation"Stratfor" (Stratfor) for American Strategic and Security Studies presents 4 scenarios for the development of the war in Sudan, with the continuation of battles in the large cities of the country, with the clashes between the army and the Rapid Support Forces entering its second week.
In its assessment of current events, the center stated that intense fighting is likely to continue in the main cities, although its temporary pause in the coming days may allow the evacuation of foreign nationals.
First scenario:
The armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces agree to a periodic ceasefire, but sporadic fighting will continue in urban centres.
The Center believes that it is unlikely that a permanent or indefinite ceasefire will be reached, but international pressure to allow evacuations may prompt one or both of the warring parties to stop the fighting for a short period, according to Al Jazeera.
Second scenario:
It is the continuation of fierce fighting in the cities without a cease-fire "In light of the relatively equal capabilities of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in terms of the number of personnel and equipment".
The third scenario: that one of the two parties inflicts defeat on the other, forcing the latter to seek refuge in rural areas in remote parts of the country.
The fourth scenario: It is an unlikely possibility, according to the assessment, that the army would agree to W"Quick support" a permanent ceasefire "But the risk of future violence remains".
The American Center believes that there is a chance – albeit a very small one – that international pressure (especially Arab) will give way to an unlimited ceasefire between the warring parties in the coming days or weeks.
Read the Latest World News Today on The Eastern Herald.
