United Nations: Where the growth of population is slowing down in the southern states of India, the labor migration from the northern and eastern states is compensating for it. Thus the demographic dividend will continue in these states. India overtakes China as the world’s most populous country, a paper by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), released on Monday, noted divergence among states, while The country’s overall fertility rate has dropped to 2, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1.
It is worth mentioning that the replacement rate of fertility is the number of children a woman can have to keep the population stable and less than this would mean a gradual decrease in the population, which is happening in China with a fertility rate of 1.2. The UN report states that in India overall, the demographic dividend of a relatively young and older working-age population is projected to increase as a proportion of the total population. Labor migration from northern and eastern states may increase the size of the workforce in relatively older southern states, the UN paper says.
The paper states that according to the latest UN projections, India’s population is expected to decline gradually after reaching its peak around 2064. Briefing reporters about the paper, John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division, said, “The period of population growth is an important period for India, but it does not depend only on demography, it depends on many other factors as well.”
He said that this is the time countries should focus on educating their population and enabling people to participate in the labor force. Explaining the differences within India, the paper states that, under India’s federal structure, state governments are able to set their own policy priorities. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where state governments focused on socio-economic development and women’s empowerment, fertility declined at a faster rate. Birth rates in these states fell below replacement level two decades ago. States that invested less in human capital experienced a slower decline in fertility, despite drastic measures.
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