Russia’s GDP growth in 2023 will be 0%, according to forecasts by the Vienna Institute for International Studies (WIIW). It’s more optimistic hint than the World Bank forecast (-0.2%), but less optimistic than forecast Ministry of Economic Development (1.2%).
The military actions and sanctions have had an uneven impact on different sectors of the Russian economy, the WIIW noted. “While domestic trade and industries heavily dependent on cross-border ties have suffered, military production and some import-substituting industries are booming. Recent energy sanctions have dealt a severe blow to government revenues and will fuel the budget deficit for years to come,” WIIW analysts said.
The Ukrainian economy, which shrank by almost 30% in 2022, will grow by 1.6% in 2023, while the Belarusian economy will grow by 1.3%.
Kazakhstan’s economy in 2023 will grow by 3.5% – this is the highest rate among the leading Eastern European and CIS countries mentioned in the WIIW forecast.
The Austrian Institute has prepared forecasts for 23 countries, including Turkey, the Balkans, Eastern European EU countries and CIS countries. GDP contraction in 2023 is only expected in one of the 23 countries – Hungary (-0.5%). Moldova (3%), Romania (3%), Albania (3.3%) and partially recognized Kosovo (3.6%) are expected to show the fastest growth in 2023
“Most of the economies of the 23 countries of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe seem to have largely digested the economic shock caused by the military actions in Ukraine. And although the level of economic activity has fallen considerably compared to last year, which had a catch-up effect after the coronavirus pandemic, almost all countries will continue to grow in 2023, despite military actions,” according to WIIW.
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