Chinese leader Xi Jinping could face major obstacles if he is serious about helping end Ukraine’s 14-month war.
The main one is that neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready to stop hostilities.
Xi Jinping’s plan to send a special envoy to Ukraine allows his government to deflect criticism of Moscow’s support and play a more active role as a diplomatic force.
The announcement, made during his phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, raised optimistic expectations that Beijing could use its cordial relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve peace.
But that was followed by questions from skeptics about whether Beijing is really driven by a desire to stop the invasion, which it refuses to condemn, or its own interests.
The starting point for China was its peace proposals released in February. They called for a ceasefire, the start of negotiations and the lifting of sanctions against Russia. They contained few details, but repeated Russian accusations that Western countries were responsible for the invasion.
China has good reason to want the war to end.
This has caused turmoil in the Chinese economy due to rising prices for oil, wheat and other raw materials.
On Wednesday, Beijing also warned of the dangers of nuclear war after Russia announced it was moving nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus.
“It turned out that ending the war is in China’s interest,” said John Delury, an international relations scholar at Yonsei University in Seoul.
“Beijing is not interested in Russia’s humiliation, nor in Russia’s triumph,” he said. “The best option is a ceasefire, and with it the economic opportunities to participate in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.”
Wednesday’s statement made no reference to China’s recommendations for resolving issues that Russia and Ukraine are fighting over, including the Crimea issue, which Russia seized in 2014.
Playing a peacemaking role, Beijing could also seek to drive a wedge between European allies and Washington, which Xi Jinping accuses of trying to contain China’s economic and political rise.
Beijing is trying to rebuild its relationship with Europe after outcry over the Chinese ambassador’s comment that former Soviet republics may not be sovereign states. This group includes Ukraine, as well as the current members of the EU: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, visited Beijing and asked for help on the Ukraine issue, highlighting the challenges Washington faces in rallying its allies to counter China’s assertive policy on the foreign.
“Creating a wedge between American and European partners is an important goal,” said Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “To do this, China must pretend to be an active peacekeeping force.”
Political scientists don’t see much chance of progress. It is believed that Ukraine is preparing a new offensive to return the territories occupied by Russia.
“(Before the settlement) there may still be years, even decades, because there are still huge distances between the positions of Russia and Ukraine,” Gabuev said.
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