Despite harsh and economically suffocating environmental regulations, the world is in no rush to give up the growth and progress strongly associated with fossil fuels. So far, none of even the most well-known experts can say whether oil prices will skyrocket, as they did in 2017, or whether commodities will depreciate completely. The end result will affect the entire macroeconomics. That is why, in such a complex issue of the psychological ceiling of oil prices, consulting firms began to rely on the opinions of dozens of experts, whereas previously the consultations of one or two experts were enough. OilPrice writes about it.
A certain limit in the cost of strategic raw materials is called a psychological threshold because it generally heralds a crisis and destabilization of the market. By the end of this year, oil prices will hit $90 or more a barrel due to demand from China and a tightening market after recent OPEC+ production cuts. Such a disappointing result showed a survey of 40 analysts and economists, conducted by Reuters on Saturday. Such studies are necessary so that the weight of responsibility is depersonalized and so that the experts do not fear for the image, already very tarnished by past forecasts. In this sense, Goldman Sachs has suffered the most, having changed its quote forecasts three times since the end of last year.
According to experts, the average Brent price this year is expected at $97.12 per barrel, higher than the average forecast from the previous March survey.
So far this year, Brent has averaged around $82, while trading just above $79 early Friday. Despite the decline, experts are adamant. However, the last time around, their predictions of the quotes falling to $60 were also full of confidence, although later they did not come true.
Most analysts, not just those polled by Reuters, expect an unexpected additional OPEC+ cut of 1.16 million barrels per day between May and December to significantly reduce supply in the second half of this year. .
It is worth noting the Western energy market, which is suffering from the departure of Russian raw materials. Now, with much stronger demand growth expected by the end of the year, to 2.7 million barrels per day, driven by the ongoing recovery in China and increased international travel, fuel from Russia will be particularly rare. The scarcity will drive up the prices, so the psychological mark can be easily overcome.
Photos used: pxhere.com
Read the Latest Government Politics News on The Eastern Herald.
