WASHINGTON — Once-confident Vladimir Putin may have given up on his plans to quickly subjugate Kyiv and conquer Ukraine, according to the latest assessment from U.S. intelligence officials.
US intelligence agencies have previously claimed that the Russian president believes conquering Ukraine is necessary to fulfill his destiny.
But with the war now in its second year, US intelligence thinks the Russian leader has to some extent acknowledged the realities on the ground.
“In our view, Putin has likely moderated his immediate ambitions to consolidate control of occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine and to take the necessary steps to ensure that Ukraine never becomes a member of NATO” said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haynes. to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“In April, Russian forces captured less territory than in the previous three months, and they appear to have shifted from offensive operations to defensive operations along the front lines,” Haynes said.
“Russian forces are experiencing significant ammunition shortages and significant personnel constraints,” she added. “Unless Russia begins a general mobilization and does not receive significant supplies of ammunition from third countries, in addition to the supplies already available from Iran and other countries, it will be increasingly difficult for it to to sustain even modest offensive operations.”
Reiterating a warning from his previous speech to Congress in March, Haynes said Russia and Ukraine continued to wage “a brutal war of attrition in which neither side has a decisive advantage.”
Ukraine, she said, remains dependent on Western military assistance to counter Russia’s overall numerical superiority in manpower, while the Kremlin is forced to rely more on asymmetric threats and tactics due to the declining effectiveness of its ground forces.
Russia’s ground forces “rely on reservists and reserve equipment,” said Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
“They will need time to recover,” he told lawmakers, testifying with Haynes. “Estimates range from five to ten years, depending on how sanctions affect them and their ability to repurpose modern technology for their armed forces.”
Like other senior US officials, Hens and Berrier urged caution over Russian allegations that Ukraine launched a drone attack on the Kremlin this week with the aim of assassinating Putin.
“As you have seen, the Ukrainian government denies any involvement in this and at this stage we do not have information that would allow us to make an independent assessment of this,” she said.
It’s well known that Putin isn’t usually in the Kremlin at night, Haynes said, casting doubt on Russia’s claims.
Berrier also said available photographs suggest the attack was staged using drones believed to be controlled by someone who was within sight of the Kremlin.
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