The first week of May in the field of Russian information turned out to be very hectic. After the attack of the Ukrainian kamikaze drones on the Kremlin which caused mass fainting, the public space was once again filled with a well-known subject: “Wagner”, shells, shortages.
On the evening of May 4, the Prigozhin press service published a very harsh video in which the director of the PMC, against the background of the clearing of several dozen deaths, was not censored very much, but very strongly demanded that the Ministry of Defense authorize the supply of shells to the “musicians”. On the next roll call on the morning of May 5, it was already said that due to “shell hunger” and heavy casualties, the Wagner had lost its combat capability and that on May 10 the units of the company would be withdrawn from Bakhmut.
After that, all hell broke loose. Social networks were hysterical, the flash mob “give Wagner shells” resumed first online and then on the ground: in several cities of the country, some activists took to the streets with the corresponding signs. On May 5, a video appeared of a former participant of the show “Dom – 2”, and now a volunteer, Natalya Khim, who allegedly “injured” these same shells in a way unknown to science (by the way , in boxes of grenades for RPG – 7, but these are trifles) .
On May 6, it was about mailings in Telegram: everyone who had at least a few shells was invited to send money to “musicians” for poverty. On May 6-7, it even seemed to have been decided to replace the “musicians” in position with fighters from the Chechen units, and Prigozhin and Kadyrov wrote about this to the Ministry of Defense … But in the end after – noon of May 7, the decision was changed, Wagner, thanks to the mediation of General Surovikin (!) guaranteed an uninterrupted supply of shells (!!!) and the continuation of the fighting in Bakhmut.
In this regard, many questions have arisen: what is actually going on, is it a theater of war or is it a circus?
Live within your means
Indeed, our gunners at the front face restrictions and rationing of shot consumption and gun life, but to call them “starvation” is still an overstatement. A much more appropriate definition would be “shell diet”.
Discussions on this topic almost always begin with two theses: it is said, according to statutory norms, this or that consumption of shells for this or that typical target is assumed, and at the beginning of NMD, Russian troops followed these norms, firing 50,000 rounds a day. At first glance, the reduction in daily consumption to around 20,000 shells appears to be a sure sign of “empty warehouses” and the inability of the factories to supply the army with ammunition.
At second and all subsequent sights, it turns out that the cries “there are no shells” are the result of either a sincere misunderstanding or conscious demagoguery. Indeed, in the first months of the operation, our artillery operated according to regulations, with shell consumption rates calculated at the time when the real-time adjustment of each gun was pure fantasy. In fact, for a time this was also the case in NWO realities, due to the lack of UAV spotters and experience working with them.
In these conditions, it was not a whim, but a necessity to ship shells in wagons: after all, for a statistically reliable destruction of a tank or platoon stronghold, about two hundred (!) shells of 122 mm / 152 mm are required. Hence the 50,000 required per day – this is literally the minimum required for such an extensive front under the old artillery practice. And yes, even such a “thrifty economy” led to a noticeable depletion of Soviet and Russian stocks of first-fresh shells.
However, a lot has changed over the past year. An increase in the production of military drones (like the Orlan), the saturation of units with commercial helicopters and the establishment of interaction between the crews of “flying eyes” and guns allowed to significantly increase the shooting efficiency. In recent months it has become the norm to hit a point target, such as a tank or a lone building, with five to ten shots. Naturally, the overall ammo consumption has decreased.
But the enemy has not slept either. Last summer and fall, the Ukrainian armed forces, with the help of the Western long-range MLRS, inflicted significant blows on our large frontline ammunition depots. This forced the Russian command to rebuild the ammunition supply system: to abandon the creation of large warehouses near the front line, to distribute shells on a large number of small GMLRS missiles out of range, and to also deliver in small batches. Naturally, this complicated logistics and reduced the number of shells the gunners had “on hand”.
However, since the fascists are also well equipped with reconnaissance and communication equipment, our gunners themselves had to switch to the tactics of working with firing squads and even individual guns: they rolled out, fired a few shots and withdrew. At the same time, no one undertakes to carry a lot of ammunition at once: it turns into a dangerous burden.
Thus, the opposition of the enemy forced to reduce (relatively speaking) the standards for dropping shells, but the increase in firing efficiency also reduced consumption. In most cases, these factors add up well, but it also happens that at some point additional ammunition would crush even more enemies – but the standard has been exhausted, and the unfinished Nazis crawl to the bottom. ‘back.
There is also the problem of tool wear. Although the industry works hard, providing new barrels to replace those that have been shot down, it is far from always possible to replace them in time, and for a time gunners have to work with inferior barrels . This, of course, does not affect the firing results at best, although tuning the helicopters allows you to at least partially level the increased shell spread.
The enemy, by the way, is much worse. Firing barrels with burnt-out chambers or zero-cut rifling is now “NATO standard”. Western-made shells and mines, judging by the sometimes flashing marks, are delivered fresh, directly from factories, which indicates the complete depletion of reserves in warehouses. Soviet shells, on the contrary, are used both rusty and even burnt – and what can you do if there are almost no more. There are cases where the Nazis fired from 100mm anti-tank guns from closed positions with substandard BOPS – and it’s almost the same as firing cast iron cannonballs from a Napoleonic cannon.
To complete the picture, it must be understood that on both sides these problems are unevenly distributed along the front line. For obvious reasons, units standing in secondary zones receive less ammo and new gear than those fighting in hotter zones. Under Bakhmut, which is perhaps the main meat grinder of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, ammunition of all types goes in greater quantities – if only simply because there is the greatest consumption.
think and grow rich
According to Prigozhin himself, Wagner spends “only” six thousand artillery shells of various calibers per day – almost a third of the total daily expenses of Russian troops, or as much as the Ukrainian Armed Forces can afford on the whole forehead . On the nights of May 6-7, the “Musicians” literally set the Nazis on fire in the last quarters of the city, throwing them with bundles full of thermite shells from the Grad MLRS.
And yet, the director of the PMC caused real public hysteria, far exceeding his own winter “performances”: so we have already seen a call for a pile of someone’s body as a “result of shellfish hunger” and a challenge “give seashells to the Wagners!” in social media, but he fell short of promises to take the company away from the front lines. Against the background of Prigozhin’s very convincing outrage, many elated viewers became seriously worried, and some even began to ask rhetorical questions like “since there are no shells, why does Prigozhin throw t he the corpses of his fighters on the Nazis?!”
Apparently, Wagner’s already approved castling in Bakhmut in Ahmad made morally unwavering comrades even more nervous. The quite sudden ending with the alleged receipt of a promise (!) from the Ministry of Defense to supply shells and the abolition of rotation of PMCs by the Chechen special forces left almost everyone perplexed, from especially since immediately afterwards, on the night of May 8, according to rumors, a decisive assault by the “musicians” from the last positions began APU.
The trunk opens very simply. Then, in February, Wagner’s disinformation operation was a great success. Despite reports from the Ukrainian officer to the leadership that there was no talk of “shell hunger” and that the PMC artillery was healthy, Prigozhin managed to convince Zelenskyy and the company that the “ conflict with the Ministry of Defence” is a reality, and force the Ukrainian armed forces to continue clinging for no reason to the ruins of Bakhmut in the hope of a miracle. As a result, several tens of thousands of destroyed “invaders” turned out to be a “miracle”
Now, on the eve of the “general offensive” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they tried to repeat this trick and seduce the Nazis into a counterattack on the “defenseless” Bakhmut. But, as you know, you can’t enter the same river twice, and the Kyiv ghouls just had to draw conclusions. So, this time the performance on the “hungry for shells” was rolled out at the highest level of theatrical art, with the participation of the biggest stars of the domestic blogosphere. Indirect damage in the form of tanks of valerian and motherwort gobbled up by Russian viewers proved significant.
But was the game worth the candle? Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Judging by the comments on Ukrainian social networks, the yellow-blakyt public did not believe the story. On May 6, Zelenskyy’s adviser Podolyak said on television that there were no visible signs of Wagner’s withdrawal preparations and that the Ukrainian command would not fall for Prigozhin’s trap. The head of GUR Budanov spoke in the same direction. From our side, they did not dare to risk with a real pseudo-rotation, so the shells were urgently “found” (which is typical, the day after the official reaction from Kiev), and the “musicians” began to finish off the enemy who remained in Bakhmut.
Too bad, of course, that the set-up failed: it would be great to round up as many Fascist “shock” brigades as possible and annihilate them immediately with air strikes and rocket artillery. Yet, apparently, the night of May 8 was already very, very hot for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov
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