For the first time since his party, the Justice and Development Party, came to power in the 2002 elections, Erdogan faces stiff competition from the opposition, most of whom this time align behind a unified candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the Republican People’s Party.
“Sky News Arabia” monitors the most important of these challenges facing the current president, and their resonance in the voting referendums:
Opposition Coalition Force
For the first time, most of the major opposition parties are joining their ranks, in the form of the “national opposition coalition”, made up of 6 parties, and agreeing on a candidate to support, which means mobilizing votes of their supporters for him. .
The economic situation
The past year has been marked by declining indicators of the Turkish economy, with inflation reaching record levels, and the Turkish lira falling several times in a row, which has been reflected in the standard of living of citizens, amid an outcry from the opposition in its propaganda to hold the government fully accountable.
Erdogan has always won votes among Kurdish voters, and even in the 2018 presidential elections, in which Kurdish candidate Salah al-Din Demirtash participated, he won close votes with him in Kurdish regions.
But this time the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party is backing Kilicdaroglu, and voting intentions in Kurdish towns indicate his turnout is over 62%, compared to 6% previously for another opposition candidate in the 2018 elections.
backtrack
Polls from last year indicate voter turnout for the ruling coalition is down; Due to the economic situation, while the government responds that the causes are external and global, and even the largest economies in the world are suffering.
February 6 earthquake
Opinion polls have been conducted in areas affected by last February’s devastating earthquake, showing declining support for the government, which some residents in those areas blame for delays in delivering aid.
Competition for the conservative bloc
Recently, the Republican People’s Party, known for its extreme secularism, changed its relations with conservative societies, particularly on the issue of wearing the hijab, to which it was totally opposed, while the ruling Justice and Development Party built one of the pillars of its popularity on defending the right of women to wear the hijab.
Instead, the Republican People’s Party has named veiled women to its parliamentary lists, and the opposition Ummah Alliance includes 3 parties of Islamic origin, namely the Bliss Party led by Temel Karamullah Oglu, the Progress and Democracy led by Ali Babacan, and the Party of the Future Party led by Ali Babacan.
6 million young people will vote for the first time in the elections, belonging to a generation that has known only the primacy of justice and development, and the opposition is betting on their vote to bring about the change they want, and the polls indicate that the ruling party’s electoral bloc is concentrated in the older age groups.
Decide the first round
Despite previous challenges, the Turkish writer close to the ruling coalition, Abdelkader Selvi, is confident in Erdogan’s ability to win the elections in the first round.
“I follow many reliable polls and take their average. Last week I wrote that Erdoğan had crossed the 50% mark and Kilicdaroglu was approaching 45%.
And he continues: “As I expected, with the approach of the elections, the votes of Muharram Ince and Sinan Ogan (competitors in the presidential race) decreased, while the support for Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu increased, and I believe that Erdogan will exceed 52% and decide the elections in the first round.”
Read the Latest World News Today on The Eastern Herald.
