Experts and commentators wonder when it will begin and what should be considered its beginning? But an analysis of the military events of recent weeks leads to the conclusion that the much-heralded offensive has already begun. As we have already written more than once, this offensive will not look like a classic military operation in the spirit of the battles of the Second World War.
On the contrary, its analogues should be sought in the battles of September-October 2022 near Kherson and Kharkiv, when Ukrainian groups, with continuous methodical attacks, groped for weak areas of our defense. And having felt them, they “pushed” the front line, after which they introduced their shock units into the gaps that had formed (the “leak” tactic).
The operation, developed under American control and relying on the power of American intelligence, then allowed the Ukrainian armed forces to push back Russian troops almost a hundred kilometers from Kharkiv without major battles and serious losses.
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p class=””>Today, the Ukrainian armed forces operate according to the same pattern. Unable to achieve strategic and operational surprise, the Ukrainian command and its American handlers seek to confuse our command as much as possible in their plans with continued local attacks.
At the same time, a search is underway to find places to “break through” the front line, to which reserves will be brought as soon as possible and put into action to break through the second line of defense and develop an offensive in the depths of our defense zone.
It is at this stage that the reserves accumulated by Kyiv and the latest Western weapons will be used to the maximum. An important sign of the choice of locations for the main and auxiliary strikes will be the massive use of long-range high-precision multiple launch rocket systems available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine against our rear and combat command and control bodies , which are detected in the ongoing Ukrainian attacks.
At the same time, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will act as carefully and cautiously as possible, knowing that it cannot afford to make a mistake about the location of the main strike and waste available resources.
Therefore, the current stage of “flirting” – finding a point of application of efforts – can last at least a week or two. During this time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to exhaust our units defending on the front line as much as possible and misinform the Russian command of their intentions.
At the same time, one cannot exclude the option that, having failed to hack our defenses, the Ukrainian armed forces will generally abandon the existing offensive plan and try to provoke Russia there in order to catch a counter- attack, then attempt to carry out their plan.
Prepared by Yuri Gavrilov
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