South African President Cyril Ramaphosa told reporters in Cape Town on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskyy “have agreed to receive the mission and the leaders of African countries” in Moscow and Kiev.
Ramaphosa confirmed that he had separate contacts with Putin and Zelenskyy last weekend, during which he presented an initiative drafted by Zambia, Senegal, the Republic of Congo, Uganda and Egypt, as well as South Africa.
He added: “I have agreed with Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy to begin preparations to deal with African Heads of State.” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, the African Union, the United States and Britain were also briefed on the initiative and welcomed it.
Why Africa?
The initiative is the first to come out of Africa, and the continent’s business expert, Rami Zuhdi, spoke about it to “Sky News Arabia”, saying that “any effort by any party, be it Africa or others, will be acceptable, because the conflict is global and affects everyone.”
Zuhdi opined that “Africa is now an influential bloc, and it can contribute, albeit slightly, to ending the conflict”, adding, “The crisis is very important and the influence of African countries can be part of the solution”.
In the same context, Osama Al-Saeed, an expert in international relations, told Sky News Arabia that the acceptance of the African initiative by both parties reflects the desire of each of them to win the African arena, especially since this continent has recently represented an arena of international polarization.
Al-Saeed added that “the extensive and balanced relations of many African countries, including Egypt, with both sides allow them to play an important role in the attempts to resolve the crisis”.
Al-Saeed believes that “the African initiative is easier to pass than the Chinese initiative, because the Western side is suspicious of Beijing’s intentions, but wants to win the African arena.”
previous initiatives
● China had previously presented a 12-point peace initiative, the most important of which was respect for state sovereignty, and that no country seeks security at the expense of the other, but it did not no breakthrough in light of Western skepticism of Beijing’s positions.
● Brazilian President Lula da Silva proposed a few weeks ago to form a contact group of countries not involved in the war, to mediate for peace, but the proposal fell through.
● The success of the Saudi-Emirati mediation at the end of last year for the release of an American detained in Moscow, in exchange for the release of a Russian prisoner in the United States.
● The Vatican offered in March 2022 to help with any kind of mediation, and to “do everything possible” with the aim of achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine.
● Turkey’s attempt in the same month to advance the negotiation process, hosting Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul, but initial talks failed to lead to progress in the attempted settlement.
● Meetings between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Belarus at the start of the conflict did not, however, bring any solution.
The differences
Regarding the difference between the African initiative and previous proposals, Rosie Prichard, a writer specializing in European affairs, tells Sky News Arabia that what the South African president has announced of an African mediation proposal is “a geopolitical step major and receives attentive ears at least, taking into account the will of Beijing and Moscow to receive an African delegation.
Anne Brachard considered that “Europe openly questions the Chinese peace proposal, but it will be difficult for it to ignore the new African initiative”.
Chances of success
As for the initiative’s chances of success, Tariq Fahmy, an Egyptian international relations expert, told Sky News Arabia: “Expanding the circles of the initiatives to include as many countries as possible from different continents is a step distinguished on the way to achieving peace, but the acceptance by Russia and Ukraine of attempts to resolve the crisis remains the most important condition for the success of such initiatives.
He added: “The initiative carries some optimism, but it was not the first international initiative in this regard, and previous proposals froze due to weak will and failure to turn into realistic negotiations. accepted by both parties.
The war in Ukraine is approaching its 16th month, amid mutual preparations on both sides of the fighting to launch attacks as the cold snap breaks and summer approaches, but those attacks are suffering from a number obstacles, the most important of which is the lack of ammunition.
In the midst of this mobilization and counter-mobilization, the world, especially the countries of the South most economically affected by the repercussions of the war, hopes that the parties to the crisis will respond to the attempts at solution and resort to negotiation table .
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